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Old 05-25-2021, 10:01 PM   #1
CoitusMaximus
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Question $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

Using a 3% compounding strategy strategy.

Now the question is, if one is to use the compounding strategy as explained by a site, it can wipe out the bankroll if there is a -333.33 unit down swing. Betting 8 units a game it is probably less likely to happen but anyone know how to calculate the probability of it happening. Is there even a way to calculate it since the odds of all the bets are not fixed?

Last edited by Mike Haven; 05-30-2021 at 04:20 AM.
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Old 05-25-2021, 10:54 PM   #2
SwoopAE
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

I have a much larger sample; my biggest downswing is about 30-something units, at betting ~1 unit a game at a ~3.7%ish roi. 20 unit downswings are fairly common as in you'll get one or more a year but less than ten, 30 is quite rare but happen and I haven't had a 40 unit downswing to date although it's plausible and my biggest downswing has come close to that. I'm about 6 years and lowish 5 figure bet sample in if that helps

Incremental of course

Also fwiw you're gonna run into the problem of getting the action as unit size grows on unless you're only betting incredibly mainstream sport as your unit size grows into five figures plus etc. so you may have to take the second best price instead of the best price at times to get your volume down as unit size goes up, which lowers your ROI - if my average bet size was say 500 bucks, I could easily maintain a 5%+ ROI but that's not really plausible on super mainstream sports if you're betting a ton of different stuff for volume rather than specializing in handicapping/modelling as unit size scales heavily upwards. I've found over time it makes sense initially to 'bet everything' when the unit sizes are small, but at later stages maintaining accounts in good standing/networking for outs becomes more important and you end up passing that 3% belgian soccer spot or women's tennis spot or whatever so that you can look recreational enough to get bulk action down on that mainstream or semi mainstream 5% roi spot when you find it without looking like an arber/steam chaser and getting accounts closed all over the place

Sports betting scales pretty well, but doesn't scale infinitely unless you spend a lot of time networking for places that accept large wagers indefinitely on stuff you want to bet

Also if you're betting 8 units a game why not divide that by 8 and call it one unit, which would make your 333.33 downswing number 41 units and change if i'm reading correctly, which would be an extreme downswing but not outside the realm of plausible, based on my incremental evidence of having actually done pretty similar to what you describe granted over a larger bet sample, with slightly more conservative BRM, with the numbers not being quite exact and over a slightly longer time frame. I don't recall the exact number offhand, but over my sample my biggest downswing is in the 30-something unit range, and that's with a 3.7% ROI not 3%, so 41 units is def plausible but rare if you're running at 3%

Also worth noting is as your bankroll/net worth grows and time goes on, it becomes less replaceable/harder to start over, so you need to reduce risk slightly in order to protect future opportunity. It's a lot easier to be aggro with BRM when you're 22 and single and living in a share house with cheap rent with friends with a 10k net worth that's easily replaceable, and it's the right thing to do. When you're 35 with a family and people that rely on your income and a net worth of say mid six to low level figures, you need to start to scale back and if that means making say 300k a year instead of 400k a year to not have that 5% chance of going entirely broke and having to start over in a year, it's worth considering.

When you're 50+ with a net worth in the many millions and are at the point you never 'need' to earn another dollar and have so little time to rebuild in terms of your overall life if you were to lose it all, i'd imagine the downside of going broke starts to drastically outweigh the upside of 'maximising earning potential' and you need to take risk management into consideration even more.

Basically, if you're young/have a low net worth then yes, be aggro growing it, but scale back over time as net worth grows and risk of ruin starts to actually mean something. If you have Jeff Bezos money, a 5% chance of losing it all is not worth a 95% chance of having 300 billion dollars instead of 150 billion dollars

If you have a net worth of 8k and you're 23, it's a no brainer to accept a higher risk of ruin in order to spin it up as quickly as possible to get closer to that point of financial freedom

I'm somewhere in the inbetween stages myself where i'm not the 20-something busto guy with a 10k bankroll playing poker MTTs/grinding low stakes sports betting to make a living who should be shot taking aggressively where going broke is meaningless because it's easy to rebuild but i'm not at the point where I don't need to make another dollar in my life either. Figure out where you are and plan your sports betting bankroll management accordingly.

If you want to go full aggro until you reach a level where you deem your bankroll 'not easily replaceable' that makes sense, but after that you need to scale back the risk utility wise. For most people that point is well before 2 million dollars, so while you'll still get there eventually, the process should probably take more than 2000 bets for most people

One thing you do need to do if you plan to sports bet full time though is accelerate your bankroll to the point where it's sufficient where you are making enough EV each month to both live/take the expenses out you need to live while still growing the bankroll at a reasonable rate with a reasonable margin of error because if you're taking all of your profit out to live, it doesn't scale and you're always at risk of going broke in a downswing

Last edited by SwoopAE; 05-25-2021 at 11:13 PM.
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Old 05-25-2021, 11:49 PM   #3
CoitusMaximus
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

Excellent points. Agree, that you cannot keep compounding. Majority of the books online limits or outright bans you. For me, pinnacle and betcris are the only two books that doesn't put limitations. But I stopped compounding recently and I am staying put at $500/unit ($5000 max bet) due to difficulty betting certain non main stream games, especially during ncaa football and basketball season. Even getting 5k is hard on those games. I even spent 6 months in vegas and they profile you. Once they mark you, even to get a 5k bet on a main stream game like nba, they call the supervisor to approve the bet. Often they won't take the full amount bet if you want to bet overnight or early in the morning as they will wait for the line to settle. Meanwhile, guy like mayweather can walk in and drop 50k on any game as he pleases which is bull ****!

Right now, I have pulled out all my initial investment plus lot more. All risk is with house money. Also made some good return in 2020 by moving some profit to stocks and options.

I was curious about the probability part because I am not even sure if there is way to calculate it. It is easy to calculate if all bets are pointspread at fixed 1.91 odds but with various odds i am not sure it is even possible.
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Old 05-25-2021, 11:55 PM   #4
CoitusMaximus
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Also if you're betting 8 units a game why not divide that by 8 and call it one unit, which would make your 333.33 downswing number 41 units and change
The reason it is 8 unit is because the tipster that I use 1 to 10 unit scale where each unit is .3% making the max bet 3% if its a 10 unit bet. Majority of the plays are 8 units. But when there are big odd games, the bet drops to lower units.

I don't think calling it 8 unit or 1 unit matters since each unit has an assigned % relative to bankroll. So the probability would still be the same (if calculatable) regardless of the label of 8 unit or 1 unit.

My probability question is just for curiosity purpose. I know that kind of draw back is rare but anything is possible and was curious about the mathematics behind it.
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Old 05-27-2021, 12:02 AM   #5
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoitusMaximus View Post
Excellent points. Agree, that you cannot keep compounding. Majority of the books online limits or outright bans you. For me, pinnacle and betcris are the only two books that doesn't put limitations. But I stopped compounding recently and I am staying put at $500/unit ($5000 max bet) due to difficulty betting certain non main stream games, especially during ncaa football and basketball season. Even getting 5k is hard on those games. I even spent 6 months in vegas and they profile you. Once they mark you, even to get a 5k bet on a main stream game like nba, they call the supervisor to approve the bet. Often they won't take the full amount bet if you want to bet overnight or early in the morning as they will wait for the line to settle. Meanwhile, guy like mayweather can walk in and drop 50k on any game as he pleases which is bull ****!
haven't been to Vegas in forever but don't most places have kiosks now where you can bet anonymously? I live in the Southeast and all the sportsbooks around here have 10-15 machines where probably 95% of the bets are taken. there is a $500 limit which can be a pain but you can get around it by just printing multiple $500 tickets, and if you win only cash in like 2-3 at a time to not draw attention. you have 120 days to cash them so its really not that big of a deal to hold on to them and cash out a few weeks or months later. i am not a very high volume bettor so if you are maybe you will run into trouble but so far i have not had any issues with doing this. wearing mask probably also helps.
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Old 05-28-2021, 07:02 PM   #6
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

Why would you stop at $2mm? What kind of fake, cherry-picked ending point is that? Aside from the fact you are not compounding.

Why would you cap at 3%? If you're not using Kelly-sizing, just give up and save time.

The idea of using 8 units instead of 1 unit is simply to confuse n00bs. Your main bet size is 1 unit no matter your bankroll.

You can always spot a tout a mile away because they use terms like 'house money,' one of the dumbest concepts ever invented to bamboozle gamblers/naive investors by boiler room crooks.

The chips in front of you? That's your money.

The racks and racks in front of the dealer guarded by the pit boss, floor boss, GM, and security? That's the 'house money.'
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Old 05-29-2021, 11:42 AM   #7
atrainpsu
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

So is this post suggesting that you can turn $10,000 into $2 million in 3 years making like 2000 total bets?
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Old 05-29-2021, 08:20 PM   #8
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

The whole point of his post is to spam that **** site betting resource. He's made like 20 posts and almost all of them mention that scam.
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Old 05-29-2021, 11:35 PM   #9
SwoopAE
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

Yeah it's basically idiotic and worth mentioning the 'almost all paid touts are scammers' line again
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Old 05-30-2021, 01:41 AM   #10
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Re: $10000 to $2 Million in 3 years with little over 2000 bets

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Yeah it's basically idiotic and worth mentioning the 'almost all paid touts are scammers' line again
+1
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