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Old 07-21-2020, 01:31 AM   #1
jonsnow1
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Following up on Golf betting:)

Precept and rickroll thank you so much for answering!

As ive mentionned I have quite a lot of money on Bet365, sleeping and waiting for occasions like these.

Please enlight me.

Pace.
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:35 AM   #2
rickroll
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

not sure what you meant by betting sheet

so let's say you just want to tail bets posted in that thread

they are typically posting outrights to win when you see a single name, when you see 2 names then it's a head to head matchup, the head to heads don't usually pop up until later in the week


Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Price Cutter Charity Championship (KF Tour)

Will Zalatoris +700 [+611]
Svesson +4000 [+3229]
Nunez +7500 [+5197]

Same guys as usual
see how he has two numbers here? "Zalatoris +700 [+611]"

the first number +700 is what line was when he posted, the second number in brackets is what he thinks is fair, ie his model believes you can bet that guy to win up to +611 profitably

i think this would be where you'd find these lines at bet365 https://www.nj.bet365.com/#/AC/B7/C2.../E50855913/F2/ from there you can navigate around and find similar bets on the other 2 big tournaments going on this weekend that people are posting about

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
sad my BM to win limits are only 50k this week. why would a global pandemic do this to us

English +2866 RISK: 0.12u
Schenk +12500 RISK: 0.18u
Schwab +10000 RISK: 0.27u

hope it's because it just opened

British Masters

Andrew Johnston +5500 RISK: 0.2u
Romain Langasque +5000 RISK: 0.17u
here he doesn't list what he thinks is fair in the brackets but he does include unit size (a unit is typically 1% of your bankroll so you know how much he personally believes in that bet from a risk perspective)

here's another format

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BetBoke View Post
Fiddled with Homa, Todd, Ortiz, Taylor, Kim, Grillo but decided to just stick with the 3 I'm happiest with:

Paul Casey @ 21.0 (1.8 units) 20% 1-8
Harris English @ 34.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
Sepp Straka @ 67.0 (0.65 units) 20% 1-8

Due a bink imho
i could be mistaken, but the 1-8 means he did it each way so he'll also get paid a lesser amount if the guy just finishes top 8, I don't do each way very often so am not too familiar with the nuance

he also simplifies it, instead of typing +2100 for Casey he just type 21 to signify it's a 21:1 payout
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Old 07-21-2020, 08:36 AM   #3
Precept24
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonsnow1 View Post
Precept and rickroll thank you so much for answering!

As ive mentionned I have quite a lot of money on Bet365, sleeping and waiting for occasions like these.

Please enlight me.

Pace.
Everything Rick said was great. I have nothing to contribute. I focus mainly on micro stakes DFS on DK. Well, now that I had a decent score, maybe I'll jump up into the small stakes.

That said, I'm happy to share the results of my 200 simulations of this tournament based on what I think this tournament requires...skill/stat-wise.

e.g. Dustin Johnson was the winner in 1% of my simulations. For the highest priced golfer in DFS, you'd expect a better win percentage. Conversely, Doc Redman won 11%, which is insane. So, I'm going to check my model to see if it's doing what I want it to do, then, I'm going to start creating lineups.
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Old 07-21-2020, 09:52 AM   #4
Precept24
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

Edit: I'm noticing that ran everything with all the guys (6) who are listed OUT in there. I'll remove, resimulate, and reassess.
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:11 AM   #5
rickroll
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
Edit: I'm noticing that ran everything with all the guys (6) who are listed OUT in there. I'll remove, resimulate, and reassess.
as week as the field is, doc redman at 11% does seem like there could be a bug in there
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:44 PM   #6
jonsnow1
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

Took all the bets mentionned I went for '' Top of their respective country'' instead of winner of the event. You guys only bet on Winning the event or top of their country? Cause there was so many other complicated bet option
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:57 PM   #7
TiltedDonkey
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

FanDuel Tournament Matchup (3M Open)

Harris English > Bubba Watson -115



Oops wrong thread
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Old 07-21-2020, 03:10 PM   #8
deltasum2
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Re: Following up on Golf betting:)

Can we lock this up
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