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Old 03-07-2021, 10:25 AM   #51
SGspecial
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Re: EV and Hedging

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Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
Why aren't we using the YOLO strategy for all our bets? Pretty much everything can be "hedged" before the game/in game/at half time etc unless it can't be and goes on to lose and in those permutations we just grab some more money from the trust fund, right?
You make a great point. If you're offered a neutral EV hedge at ANY point, you should take it. In fact, if you take this to the limit then if you can get a neutral EV hedge before the game to lock in your EV on a +EV bet, then the correct play is to bet your entire bankroll and then hedge out because the risk is 0. Which is exactly what my formula predicts, because the parlay Kelly fraction is essentially a measure of your risk and if there's no event that has to happen for the first leg then p2 = p.

If you have to pay a vig to hedge out, then depending on the relative size of your bankroll, whether or not you should just comes down to price.
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Old 04-02-2021, 08:36 AM   #52
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Re: EV and Hedging

Next article in the series is up! This one talks about just these kinda spots where you shouldn't even wait to hedge...
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Old 04-02-2021, 12:33 PM   #53
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Re: EV and Hedging

Well done. As previously noted hedges are the easiest way to reduce risk and increase EG. All it takes is some math to realize it.
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Old 04-04-2021, 05:06 PM   #54
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Re: EV and Hedging

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Well done. As previously noted hedges are the easiest way to reduce risk and increase EG. All it takes is some math to realize it.
Thank you sir! You're absolutely right, and I plan to keep working out the math for many other spots as well.
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