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Originally Posted by Iowa!
Your math is sound in the sense that 2+2 = 4 but you aren't telling the calculator that there is a decent chance one of the 2s is actually a 1, 0, or 3.
The formula considers all permutations. I already posted that.
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Why aren't we using the YOLO strategy for all our bets? Pretty much everything can be "hedged" before the game/in game/at half time etc unless it can't be and goes on to lose and in those permutations we just grab some more money from the trust fund, right?
I think you are actually coming around on this, or at least a little bit.
What you call "YOLO" is a mathematically sound strategy for any AP who can quantify an edge and has resources to wager.
In regards to your question, the examples you state are clearly not perfect hedges, and the formula presented does not work without adjustments. But even you should understand that availability of a hedge increases EG.
For example, if I have a +100 full game bet with 52% win equity for team A, and you have a source who offers no vig 2H bets, you should bet more on team A than you would without the source. Again, the formula does not work because this is not a perfect hedge. But using some math the game bet size can be derived to max EG. Even you should see why this is so without going into the math.
Your hyperbole is misleading and does not lead to any useful direction. If you care to use math to show why the formula is incorrect I'm all ears.
You also did not address this:
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How does one figure 52% win equity on a +100 if one estimates 95% chance the WE is between 49-52%? And betting half kelly using 52% somehow makes sense?