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Old 03-04-2020, 03:57 AM   #1
Risto234
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Estonian Football Thread

While most countries in this region still dont start with their domestic leagues anytime soon then (luckily) it's not the case here as our Esiliiga season starts on thursday and Flora starts their title defending one day later and with that in mind i guess it's about time to make this separate thread here (instead of basically being the only one who posts in that football betting thread) ...

Also in recent days there have been some draws ...*

Nations League: Georgia/Macedonia/Estonia/Armenia - as long as we dont finish rockbottom this time we should be good. Still i'd say if we finish 3rd or higher/score 3+ goals/collect 3+ points in this group then this could be already job well done or not ...*

And estonian cup QF-s take place pretty much 1 month earlier this time with games being played next tuesday-wednesday

Kalju - Trans
Elva - Kohtla-Järve U21
Tammeka - Flora
Võru Helios - Kalev*

From Paide point of view it's probably the best possible draw cause Tammeka and Trans who are probably 2 teams who might take EL place away from them basically received toughest possible opponents ...*

So stay tuned. I'll try to come out with first bets as soon as possible
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Old 03-04-2020, 05:02 PM   #2
Nepeeme2008
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

I was in on the soccer thread Risto.
But it's basically talking to 4 walls. Nobody has any interest there of sharing or posting pics beside us two. You're still new here but been like that for ages.
I thought of posting yesterday what awesome value Newcastle United vs
West Brom was, but thought the better of becoming the but of jokes again.

Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention. Very interested to see what insider wisdom you have to share on Estonia soccer.

I'm in.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:41 PM   #3
Hammerzitzen
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

"Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention."

Lol no... just no. Impressive kind of considering your post count.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:52 PM   #4
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerzitzen View Post
"Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention."

Lol no... just no. Impressive kind of considering your post count.
Ok. Point taken. Maybe I should just refer to myself.
I've bet on a lot of soccer games the last few months and have a losing record. Thus, I've come to that conclusion. I just assumed it was a common consensus among the sharper bettors that betting on game outcomes, on most sports, is a long term losing proposition.
If you have the opposite experience, then kudos to you.
Maybe you'd like to share some of your strategies with us?
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:19 AM   #5
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Sunday in Meistriliiga

Tammeka vs Tulevik

14:00 CET

1st half over 1.0 goals @1.67

I guess i'll stick to 5€ bets (if not stated otherwise) and bankroll is 500€ (cause why not)

Anyway last game in week 1 sees Tammeka hosting Viljandi tomorrow. Both sides probably would like to improve this season having finished 5th and 7th last season but whether they succeeded in doing so or not - that's probably different question ... Also Tammeka probably wants to avoid having another nightmare start to the season like they had last year when at some point they even were rockbottom in the league ... However their squad have stayed pretty much the same cause only 3 players left and (2 starting CBs from which one went to Finland and other one back to where he came from - norway's lower leagues) only one new CB joined during the winter ... Meanwhile Viljandi squad has seen way more changes so it's intresting to see how well they are going to play or whatever. Also last season Viljandi games saw most goals in first half (68) and i believe they had like 7 games (from 36) all season which stayed goalless at HT and they also had periods where 10+ consecutive leaguegames saw goal in the first half. With that in mind i hope that neither team isn't going to be too cautious first so let's see how bad this idea is*
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:40 AM   #6
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
I was in on the soccer thread Risto.
But it's basically talking to 4 walls. Nobody has any interest there of sharing or posting pics beside us two. You're still new here but been like that for ages.
I thought of posting yesterday what awesome value Newcastle United vs
West Brom was, but thought the better of becoming the but of jokes again.

Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention. Very interested to see what insider wisdom you have to share on Estonia soccer.

I'm in.
Last season i had this blog up in 3 sites. This year it's in 5 sites so it's definitely intresting to see how (un)popular they are turning out eventually ...
I have same blog in one UK site there i have nearly 3300+ views but i havent seen not a single person even leaving 1 comment and at the same time there's another poker forum where this "blog" havent even seen 800 views but has witnessed way more comments by others so yeah it's been questionable sometimes ...

But still i'd easily have this blog only in our local football forum but i guess it was right decision (kind of) to go against it and focus on foreign forums instead (or not) ...
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Old 03-07-2020, 10:56 AM   #7
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
i havent seen not a single person even leaving 1 comment and at the same time there's another poker forum where this "blog" havent even seen 800 views but has witnessed way more comments by others so yeah it's been questionable so.
well, now that I see what you're going to be posting, I'm a little disappointed. I'm not sure if this is the right place for your "blog".
But far be it for me to discourage you. If nobody in the forum protests, do your thing.
What I was expecting and hoping for was a more thorough and analytical breakdown of the league. Each teams strengths and weaknesses. Something to encourage me to put a wager or two on the games.
This wasn't much to go on.
Otherwise,sorry but who's really interested in the Estonia league?
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Old 03-07-2020, 03:18 PM   #8
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
well, now that I see what you're going to be posting, I'm a little disappointed. I'm not sure if this is the right place for your "blog".
But far be it for me to discourage you. If nobody in the forum protests, do your thing.
What I was expecting and hoping for was a more thorough and analytical breakdown of the league. Each teams strengths and weaknesses. Something to encourage me to put a wager or two on the games.
This wasn't much to go on.
Otherwise,sorry but who's really interested in the Estonia league?
Your last question pretty much sums up why it's not worth to do these things you asked for (in betting section)

And btw isn't sporting events ... section more suitable for teams analysis etc ...

Still guess starting from next bet i'll try to give more specific information about teams who go head-to-head ...
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Old 03-07-2020, 05:20 PM   #9
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Maybe if you took out your predictions, this blog would be more appropriate in sporting events?

But as long as no one has a problem with it, keep it here Risto.
Do your thing.
I'll keep follow along.
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Old 03-08-2020, 09:58 AM   #10
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Sunday in Meistriliiga

Tammeka vs Tulevik

14:00 CET

1st half over 1.0 goals @1.67
at HT: Tammeka - Viljandi 0:1 - guess refund is always better than loss:
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:07 AM   #11
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in estonian cup QF ...

Kalju vs Trans

18:00 CET

Both teams to score @1.93


Our domestic season haven't even lasted like 2 full weeks and these 2 teams are already going head-to-head for the second time this season.. Both teams met on saturday in the league when Kalju won 1:0 thanks to goal inside first 200 seconds.. Since it's so early to the season i doubt that neither team is going to make several changes here ... Narva pretty much dominated saturday's game but that's understandable considering Kalju let them to do so after getting very early goal and they are also usually better when they dont have to dominate the game. Still they are at home now and here i doubt them even thinking about playing defensively. I'd imagine that Trans first task here is NOT to concede but unless they're planning to keep 0:0 for 120 minutes then they'll need to come out to attack at some point so they'd be able to keep their EL hopes alive and as i doubt that Kalju fails to score at home eventhough they (sometimes) struggle at home vs weaker teams then i predict both sides to find the net.
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Old 03-10-2020, 04:33 PM   #12
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Today in estonian cup QF ...

Kalju vs Trans

18:00 CET

Both teams to score @1.93
Final score 1:2 so current bankroll is 504.65€
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Old 03-12-2020, 12:17 PM   #13
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in Meistriliiga

Flora II - Levadia II

* game starts next full hour **

under 4 goals @1.69

Keep this one short: i only waited this long to see the line-ups and since Flora isn't getting any help from first team unlike Levadia who have first team back-up GK starting aswell as some other first-team players then i'll go with unders here. Currently it's raining aswell here in Tallinn so this should also help. Anyway story id still the same: whenever under 4 is available with great odds then hopefully for once teams are better in defending than in attacking. Also this match might be aswell the last one here which isn't going to postponed so i guess i've to wait and see what decision our football assasociation makes today ...
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Old 03-13-2020, 01:50 AM   #14
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Today in Meistriliiga

Flora II - Levadia II

* game starts next full hour **

under 4 goals @1.69
It was indeed the last game here which wasnt cancelled as all sporting events are postponed until may 1. Also game finished 2:1 therefore current bankroll 508.10€
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:49 AM   #15
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Tuesday in Meistriliiga:*

Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju

18:00 CET

5€ on both teams NOT to score @1.90

After 2 month break our league finally continues with games. Since we are fourth european league to do so (and the only one playing this tue-wed) we'd have no problems with audience cause apart from one match in Belarus there's probably not too much to look in midweek games ... Anyway Kure started this season with 0:1 defeat vs Levadia so i expect them to put up similar perfomance this time aswell where they defend well enough but on the other hand aren't too effective offensively ... Kalju defense usually manages to be anything but rocksolid vs weaker teams but as usually 2=3 then considering last 2 h2h leaguegames in Kuressaare saw just one team finding the net (if even that) then i expect similar result this time aswell ...*
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Old 05-19-2020, 03:21 PM   #16
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Tuesday in Meistriliiga:*

Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju

18:00 CET

5€ on both teams NOT to score @1.90
Visitors won 2:0 so current bankroll 517.60€
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Old 05-29-2020, 02:03 PM   #17
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Sunday in Meistriliiga

Viljandi vs Kalju

12:00 CET*

5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.74
5€ on 1st half over 1 goal @1.61


Viljandi may have scored first half goal in each of the 3 leaguegames so far this season but guess it's not that big surprise anymore since already last season their games saw most 1. half goals so maybe they'll do same trick this season aswell ... Anyway these early goals haven't helped them so much yet cause despite going 1:0 up in each of these matches they eventually managed to lose 2 ... Kalju' all leaguegames this season have also seen goal(s) in the first half so hopefully both teams continue being leaky at the back and therefore dont settle for goalless HT result. Kalju have also won like 11 of the last 12 h2h games and after managing to lose homegame vs Legion last week i'd imagine that they dont make any gifts to weaker teams anytime soon ...
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Old 05-31-2020, 01:53 PM   #18
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Sunday in Meistriliiga

Viljandi vs Kalju

12:00 CET*

5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.74
5€ on 1st half over 1 goal @1.61
It's 2/2 - guess there were any doubt in it really cause Kalju scored 3 in either half and won eventually 6:0 so current bankroll is 524.35€
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:25 AM   #19
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in Meistriliiga

Kalju vs Levadia

18:00 CET

4€ on Kalju DnB @1.97

Levadia have started this season quite perfectly as they've won all 4 games so far although they did concede in the last 2 ... However Kalju havent been this good this year cause eventhough they have won all 3 awaygames to nil they still managed to lose both 2 homegames this season ... Levadia seems to be favourite here but then again they have been that vs Kalju recently aswell couple times and each time pretty much failed to deliver... Levadia havent won h2h leaguegame for 3 years and during the last 10 h2h games they drew 3 and lost 7 matches ... Since this match will be played on artifical turf then anything can happen i guess but still at home i expect Kalju to finally start playing and therefore get atleast draw from this game. Also it seems that this game will be streamed live in youtube so in case someone dont have better things to ...*https://youtube.com/watch?v=1gpBP8V9sf0
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Old 06-04-2020, 03:58 AM   #20
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Today in Meistriliiga

Kalju vs Levadia

18:00 CET

4€ on Kalju DnB @1.97
Well Kalju won 2:0 so current bankroll is 528.23€
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Old 06-07-2020, 05:12 AM   #21
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in Meistriliiga

Kalju vs Flora

14:00 CET

5€ on Kalju AH0 @2.22

Both sides have won 4 leaguegames so far but neither of them havent been as perfect as Dude Perfect (???) since they both have already dropped points ... Still teams come to this match from winning streaks having won 2 and 3 consecutive games so sad truth is that (atleast) for one team their winning streak comes to an end. I'd imagine that this artificial pitch is still dry therefore in (not so) excellent condition so we probably see another (very) physical game here. Kalju have also won 4 of the last 9 h2h leaguegames while losing just once so perhaps just like on wednesday they can actually get something from this game aswell.
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Old 06-13-2020, 06:21 PM   #22
LitUrgy
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Latvian bettor here, I’ll follow this, if you keep it alive, bookies finally opened up for us
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:55 AM   #23
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in Meistriliiga

Legion - Tulevik

18:30 CET

5€ on 1st half over 1.0 goals @1.72


Since beating Kalju few weeks ago Legion haven't been that brilliant anymore cause they are winless and goalless in 4 games but on the other hand they did kept clean sheet in both of the last 2 matches. At the same time Viljandi havent been superior either cause they lost 3 of the last 5 matches but they do seem to start strongly cause from 7 matches so far they did went to HT with a lead in 5. Also so far this season their games have seen 9 first half goals so perhaps they'll continue causual strategy to avoid goalless first half and we'll see goal(s) in the first half of this match aswell ...*
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Old 06-17-2020, 06:28 AM   #24
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

So yesterday Viljandi showed another decent 1st half perfomance cause for the 6. time this season they want to HT break with a lead. This time they were leading "just" 1:0 though thanks to 3rd min goal ...*

Anyway today in Meistriliiga

Flora vs Levadia

18:30 CET

5€ on Levadia over 1.0 goals @1.87

Both teams have scored in 6 of their 7 games so far but while Flora is still unbeaten as they won 6 games incl most recent 5 then Levadia have gone backwards after winning first 4 matches cause they have only won 1 of the last 3 matches.. Flora may be favourite here and so on but despite inconsistent perfomances recently i still think that Levadia can get something here if they get their act together and avoid gifting opponent goals (like they did in last game) ... Both teams won 3 of the last 6 h2h games so i'd imagine we'll see another close game this time aswell.. Also Levadia scored in each of these matches so i expect them to get atleast (consolation) goal here should they again underperfom or whatever ...
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Old 07-08-2020, 05:39 AM   #25
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in Meistriliiga

Kalev - Levadia

18:00 CET

Under 4 goals @1.62

Neither team haven't been too brilliant recently as Kalev is winless in 6 games after losing 5 during that time although they did drew last match 0:0. At the same time Levadia have won just 1 of the last 5 games as they are winless in 4. Also since they drew 3 of the last 4 games and now trail Flors by 10 points then surely they cant afford to drop anymore points ... So it is probably no surprise that Levadia so far this season have had problems with scoring cause their* 2 top scorers have magnificent 3 goals to their name and they aren't rocksolid defensively either cause have conceded 15 in 10 games from which 11 came during the last 4 games.. Therefore story is still the same: whenever under 4 odds are decent enough you must hope that for once teams are amateurs offensively and world class defensively ...*
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