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Old 03-04-2020, 03:57 AM   #1
Risto234
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Estonian Football Thread

While most countries in this region still dont start with their domestic leagues anytime soon then (luckily) it's not the case here as our Esiliiga season starts on thursday and Flora starts their title defending one day later and with that in mind i guess it's about time to make this separate thread here (instead of basically being the only one who posts in that football betting thread) ...

Also in recent days there have been some draws ...*

Nations League: Georgia/Macedonia/Estonia/Armenia - as long as we dont finish rockbottom this time we should be good. Still i'd say if we finish 3rd or higher/score 3+ goals/collect 3+ points in this group then this could be already job well done or not ...*

And estonian cup QF-s take place pretty much 1 month earlier this time with games being played next tuesday-wednesday

Kalju - Trans
Elva - Kohtla-Järve U21
Tammeka - Flora
Võru Helios - Kalev*

From Paide point of view it's probably the best possible draw cause Tammeka and Trans who are probably 2 teams who might take EL place away from them basically received toughest possible opponents ...*

So stay tuned. I'll try to come out with first bets as soon as possible
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Old 03-04-2020, 05:02 PM   #2
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

I was in on the soccer thread Risto.
But it's basically talking to 4 walls. Nobody has any interest there of sharing or posting pics beside us two. You're still new here but been like that for ages.
I thought of posting yesterday what awesome value Newcastle United vs
West Brom was, but thought the better of becoming the but of jokes again.

Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention. Very interested to see what insider wisdom you have to share on Estonia soccer.

I'm in.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:41 PM   #3
Hammerzitzen
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

"Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention."

Lol no... just no. Impressive kind of considering your post count.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:52 PM   #4
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerzitzen View Post
"Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention."

Lol no... just no. Impressive kind of considering your post count.
Ok. Point taken. Maybe I should just refer to myself.
I've bet on a lot of soccer games the last few months and have a losing record. Thus, I've come to that conclusion. I just assumed it was a common consensus among the sharper bettors that betting on game outcomes, on most sports, is a long term losing proposition.
If you have the opposite experience, then kudos to you.
Maybe you'd like to share some of your strategies with us?
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:19 AM   #5
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Sunday in Meistriliiga

Tammeka vs Tulevik

14:00 CET

1st half over 1.0 goals @1.67

I guess i'll stick to 5€ bets (if not stated otherwise) and bankroll is 500€ (cause why not)

Anyway last game in week 1 sees Tammeka hosting Viljandi tomorrow. Both sides probably would like to improve this season having finished 5th and 7th last season but whether they succeeded in doing so or not - that's probably different question ... Also Tammeka probably wants to avoid having another nightmare start to the season like they had last year when at some point they even were rockbottom in the league ... However their squad have stayed pretty much the same cause only 3 players left and (2 starting CBs from which one went to Finland and other one back to where he came from - norway's lower leagues) only one new CB joined during the winter ... Meanwhile Viljandi squad has seen way more changes so it's intresting to see how well they are going to play or whatever. Also last season Viljandi games saw most goals in first half (68) and i believe they had like 7 games (from 36) all season which stayed goalless at HT and they also had periods where 10+ consecutive leaguegames saw goal in the first half. With that in mind i hope that neither team isn't going to be too cautious first so let's see how bad this idea is*
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Old 03-07-2020, 07:40 AM   #6
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
I was in on the soccer thread Risto.
But it's basically talking to 4 walls. Nobody has any interest there of sharing or posting pics beside us two. You're still new here but been like that for ages.
I thought of posting yesterday what awesome value Newcastle United vs
West Brom was, but thought the better of becoming the but of jokes again.

Anyway, I try to be very selective now on betting on football(soccer) game results. We all know it's longterm negative ev, but you got my attention. Very interested to see what insider wisdom you have to share on Estonia soccer.

I'm in.
Last season i had this blog up in 3 sites. This year it's in 5 sites so it's definitely intresting to see how (un)popular they are turning out eventually ...
I have same blog in one UK site there i have nearly 3300+ views but i havent seen not a single person even leaving 1 comment and at the same time there's another poker forum where this "blog" havent even seen 800 views but has witnessed way more comments by others so yeah it's been questionable sometimes ...

But still i'd easily have this blog only in our local football forum but i guess it was right decision (kind of) to go against it and focus on foreign forums instead (or not) ...
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Old 03-07-2020, 10:56 AM   #7
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

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Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
i havent seen not a single person even leaving 1 comment and at the same time there's another poker forum where this "blog" havent even seen 800 views but has witnessed way more comments by others so yeah it's been questionable so.
well, now that I see what you're going to be posting, I'm a little disappointed. I'm not sure if this is the right place for your "blog".
But far be it for me to discourage you. If nobody in the forum protests, do your thing.
What I was expecting and hoping for was a more thorough and analytical breakdown of the league. Each teams strengths and weaknesses. Something to encourage me to put a wager or two on the games.
This wasn't much to go on.
Otherwise,sorry but who's really interested in the Estonia league?
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Old 03-07-2020, 03:18 PM   #8
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
well, now that I see what you're going to be posting, I'm a little disappointed. I'm not sure if this is the right place for your "blog".
But far be it for me to discourage you. If nobody in the forum protests, do your thing.
What I was expecting and hoping for was a more thorough and analytical breakdown of the league. Each teams strengths and weaknesses. Something to encourage me to put a wager or two on the games.
This wasn't much to go on.
Otherwise,sorry but who's really interested in the Estonia league?
Your last question pretty much sums up why it's not worth to do these things you asked for (in betting section)

And btw isn't sporting events ... section more suitable for teams analysis etc ...

Still guess starting from next bet i'll try to give more specific information about teams who go head-to-head ...
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Old 03-07-2020, 05:20 PM   #9
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Maybe if you took out your predictions, this blog would be more appropriate in sporting events?

But as long as no one has a problem with it, keep it here Risto.
Do your thing.
I'll keep follow along.
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Old 03-08-2020, 09:58 AM   #10
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Sunday in Meistriliiga

Tammeka vs Tulevik

14:00 CET

1st half over 1.0 goals @1.67
at HT: Tammeka - Viljandi 0:1 - guess refund is always better than loss:
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:07 AM   #11
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in estonian cup QF ...

Kalju vs Trans

18:00 CET

Both teams to score @1.93


Our domestic season haven't even lasted like 2 full weeks and these 2 teams are already going head-to-head for the second time this season.. Both teams met on saturday in the league when Kalju won 1:0 thanks to goal inside first 200 seconds.. Since it's so early to the season i doubt that neither team is going to make several changes here ... Narva pretty much dominated saturday's game but that's understandable considering Kalju let them to do so after getting very early goal and they are also usually better when they dont have to dominate the game. Still they are at home now and here i doubt them even thinking about playing defensively. I'd imagine that Trans first task here is NOT to concede but unless they're planning to keep 0:0 for 120 minutes then they'll need to come out to attack at some point so they'd be able to keep their EL hopes alive and as i doubt that Kalju fails to score at home eventhough they (sometimes) struggle at home vs weaker teams then i predict both sides to find the net.
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Old 03-10-2020, 04:33 PM   #12
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Today in estonian cup QF ...

Kalju vs Trans

18:00 CET

Both teams to score @1.93
Final score 1:2 so current bankroll is 504.65€
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Old 03-12-2020, 12:17 PM   #13
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Today in Meistriliiga

Flora II - Levadia II

* game starts next full hour **

under 4 goals @1.69

Keep this one short: i only waited this long to see the line-ups and since Flora isn't getting any help from first team unlike Levadia who have first team back-up GK starting aswell as some other first-team players then i'll go with unders here. Currently it's raining aswell here in Tallinn so this should also help. Anyway story id still the same: whenever under 4 is available with great odds then hopefully for once teams are better in defending than in attacking. Also this match might be aswell the last one here which isn't going to postponed so i guess i've to wait and see what decision our football assasociation makes today ...
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Old 03-13-2020, 01:50 AM   #14
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Today in Meistriliiga

Flora II - Levadia II

* game starts next full hour **

under 4 goals @1.69
It was indeed the last game here which wasnt cancelled as all sporting events are postponed until may 1. Also game finished 2:1 therefore current bankroll 508.10€
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:49 AM   #15
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Tuesday in Meistriliiga:*

Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju

18:00 CET

5€ on both teams NOT to score @1.90

After 2 month break our league finally continues with games. Since we are fourth european league to do so (and the only one playing this tue-wed) we'd have no problems with audience cause apart from one match in Belarus there's probably not too much to look in midweek games ... Anyway Kure started this season with 0:1 defeat vs Levadia so i expect them to put up similar perfomance this time aswell where they defend well enough but on the other hand aren't too effective offensively ... Kalju defense usually manages to be anything but rocksolid vs weaker teams but as usually 2=3 then considering last 2 h2h leaguegames in Kuressaare saw just one team finding the net (if even that) then i expect similar result this time aswell ...*
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Old 05-19-2020, 03:21 PM   #16
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234 View Post
Tuesday in Meistriliiga:*

Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju

18:00 CET

5€ on both teams NOT to score @1.90
Visitors won 2:0 so current bankroll 517.60€
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Old Yesterday, 02:03 PM   #17
Risto234
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Re: Estonian Football Thread

Sunday in Meistriliiga

Viljandi vs Kalju

12:00 CET*

5€ on Kalju -1 AH @1.74
5€ on 1st half over 1 goal @1.61


Viljandi may have scored first half goal in each of the 3 leaguegames so far this season but guess it's not that big surprise anymore since already last season their games saw most 1. half goals so maybe they'll do same trick this season aswell ... Anyway these early goals haven't helped them so much yet cause despite going 1:0 up in each of these matches they eventually managed to lose 2 ... Kalju' all leaguegames this season have also seen goal(s) in the first half so hopefully both teams continue being leaky at the back and therefore dont settle for goalless HT result. Kalju have also won like 11 of the last 12 h2h games and after managing to lose homegame vs Legion last week i'd imagine that they dont make any gifts to weaker teams anytime soon ...
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