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Old 01-20-2015, 07:31 AM   #176
SwoopAE
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Re: Esport Betting?

Limit reduced back to 121 now. I might email pinny as well to monitor it and potientially refund all bets if its fixed. This is actually the first time ive seen this when limits are 1k+
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:37 AM   #177
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Re: Esport Betting?

For what it's worth i'd strongly advise staying away from San vs Dark at this stage. It's either bet of the century or a fix.

I sent this to pinny support

Hi my account is [x]

In all of my time betting esports ive never seen anything like the San vs Dark line movement. It would appear the game might be fixed in favour of Dark, i'm sure you've noticed this. I'm sure you've noticed i'm pretty sharp on esports, I post my picks here https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...6/index12.html and the entire thread is worried about this.

San was already a hugely +EV bet at +145, the line movement out north of +300 is nuts. Every time it just gets hammered over and over for 1k. The game hasn't happened yet but if San's build order is a throw i'd like some sort of investigation here, I might contact Kespa as well, the organisation that runs proleague.

As i have bets on San this really concerns me. This is literally the first time i've ever thought an esports match might be fixed and the game hasn't even happened yet - San is objectively in the 40-60% range to win depending what you value when handicapping (I have him at +100 to -105 personally) and it is literally impossible for the line to move in this manner without some sort of manipulation. I'm sure you noticed this as tyou reduced the limits back from 1k to 121.

As the game happens shortly i'm pretty worried about the spot. Please look into it asap and advice me of how we proceed from here

This is a really fascinating situation
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Old 01-20-2015, 08:22 AM   #178
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well Pinnacle took the San/Dark line down after my email; either i'm being suspicious for no reason and win or lose if the game is normal then whatever cool but if there are shenanigans then hopefully there's an investigation. They definitely spotted something unusual in the line movement though given the dropping the max from 1k to 100 prior to me mentioning anything to their support

Sucks that Creator beat Zest twice but whatever its just a suckout with how well Prime played and how bad KT played im confident I was on the right side at -223. Myungsik's flippy weird cheese worked; Flash and Stats won as they were supposed to and Zest just lost two games where he's a -200 fav roughly. Whatever.

0-2 -3.23u so far today, come back to earth a bit. Hopefully I didn't end up on the wrong side of a fix here but we're crushing on Innovation line, shame my bet is much smaller than on San.

I'm going to laugh so hard if San just stomps him and all of this was just some idiot whale dumping 30k or whatever on Dark. If San had got out to +250 it wouldn't have worried me that much but people dumping money on Dark at -377 in a bo1 there's something weird going on
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Old 01-20-2015, 08:30 AM   #179
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Re: Esport Betting?

I've told Pinny i'm fine w them cancelling all bets on the game if they do it before the game happens. Despite the spot being theoretically amazing and probably +100% ROI even (+3xx on a pickem) i'm uncomfortable with it now. It's either a massive whale dumping five figures on Dark at a horrible price for an unknown reason (I hope its this) or potentially I just ended San's career in esports via analysing line movement. We'll find out I guess.
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Old 01-20-2015, 08:50 AM   #180
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I've told Pinny i'm fine w them cancelling all bets on the game if they do it before the game happens. Despite the spot being theoretically amazing and probably +100% ROI even (+3xx on a pickem) i'm uncomfortable with it now. It's either a massive whale dumping five figures on Dark at a horrible price for an unknown reason (I hope its this) or potentially I just ended San's career in esports via analysing line movement. We'll find out I guess.
Totally agree , well done
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Old 01-20-2015, 08:56 AM   #181
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well, moment of truth, doesn't look like pinny cancelled the bets

Going to lol if San wins in 10 mins, or cry a bit if he throws it

Pretty gross day so far. Lost back most of my mini upswing of past week or so
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Old 01-20-2015, 09:09 AM   #182
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Re: Esport Betting?

Suspicious but not conclusive. Lots of 'uncharacteristic' errors from San and unusual build order. Never going to bet on or against San again regardless of price. Have a lot of correspondence with Pinny. I'm certain 99.xx% of esports games are legitimate but that one felt ****ed up. No proof in the actual gameplay but the mothership core thing, blink forward, weird build, allowing roaches into natural etc are all minor possibilities.

Looks like we all lose today. KT and Sleep were both fine bets that just happened to lose but I think we got ****ed hard here on San. I'd say there is roughly a 50% chance he was paid to throw that game. Could go either way.

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Old 01-20-2015, 09:38 AM   #183
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Re: Esport Betting?

34-14 +15.17u overall

0-4 -5.93u tonight (although theres a good chance one game was a fix and another was affected by said fix if that was the case). Innovation game a push as it didnt happen.

34-18 +9.24u overall

I think this was the worst day of my esports betting career. Ironically it was one of the best days of my poker career. I mean we still only lose a bit under 4u for the week, but it really sucks.

Not betting on San ever again

Edit: San bets refunded on Pinnacle! If I just broke a leading esports story this is ****ing huge - or maybe they're just doing it out of goodwill, idk

34-17 +10.24u overall with San refund
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Old 01-20-2015, 09:45 AM   #184
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Re: Esport Betting?

Nice. Some parts of that game really looked fishy. Like losing the core against the queen.

btw swoopae congrats on your tournament win
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Old 01-20-2015, 09:46 AM   #185
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Re: Esport Betting?

[Your bet was placed in fraudulent manner circumventing our betting limits and system regulations.]
Hm do you think san threw the game? I mean there was a big betting scandal in cs go but somehow i cant imagine these sc2 players losing on purpose.
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Old 01-20-2015, 09:49 AM   #186
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah I warned them to cancel all bets before the match; silly they didn't until after but I do think it's the right call. I sent Pinny an email expressing my appreciation for their integrity. Dark bettors will be pissed but if it turns out there was match fixing it's fair. I'm happy for them to reverse ruling and eat a loss if they do a very thorough investigation and determine that nothing was out of the ordinary but I doubt thats the case

Apologies to anyone tailing me for getting us to bet on a possibly fixed match. Looks like we got refunded, in the mean time do not bet on or against San or Startale-Yoe (this sucks Startale is my second favourite team, if there was match fixing i'm hoping it was San on his own not the team which does seem likely as Life and Leenock losses both looked fine/standard)

San; if you somehow read this, if you're innocent i'm sorry if this brings down hell upon you, but the circumstantial evidence looks very damning. If you're guilty I hope you never play an esports match again and they prosecute you to the fullest extent of the law.
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Old 01-20-2015, 09:52 AM   #187
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nightdrive1 View Post
[Your bet was placed in fraudulent manner circumventing our betting limits and system regulations.]
Hm do you think san threw the game? I mean there was a big betting scandal in cs go but somehow i cant imagine these sc2 players losing on purpose.
There was a match fixing scandal a while ago in SC

Solar did report he received an offer to get 2k to throw a meaningless nothing game vs I think Hyun a few months ago so he's one player who we can safely bet on and against. Offers do happen obviously, he reported it to Kespa.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft...Fixing_Scandal info on the 2010 match fixing scandal
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Old 01-20-2015, 10:22 AM   #188
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Re: Esport Betting?

Maru -1.5 -107 vs Hack

Maru is better than Hack. Maru will beat Hack. Whether he beats him 2-0 or 2-1 is another matter; but I like Maru to get the job done, he's returning to form atm especially in TvT.

Not a super awesome spot but i'm taking it. It's probably breakeven but I love cheering for Maru. Don't go too huge if you do tail.

No play on Parting vs First; I love Parting but I won't bet on a Startale or Yoe Flash Wolves player until we have some closure one way or the other on what just happened with San. I have no reason to suspect Parting or anyone on either team of anything and love the rest of the teams players but better safe than sorry. Hack is a Startale player too but we're betting against him so no big deal, it's only betting on them that I won't do for the time being (although I won't bet on or against San in any games moving forward)

Taking CJ Hero -126 vs Life too; Life can beat anyone on any given day but didn't look that amazing today and is inconsistent; Hero is consistently great at PvZ. Life's skill ceiling is higher and he excels in bo7 type series...this is bo3, which is neutralish probably, but Hero is in better form in the matchup and had a nice winning record against Life in 2014. It's hard to say no to Hero at -126 against anyone in the world in PvZ really; Life, Leenock, Soulkey, Rogue, Dark - it doesn't matter, I think I take Hero at -126 in a bo3 against all of them. This is objectively the better spot of the two bets I think. I went the same size on both though. Again, Life is also Startale but he'd be well off enough I doubt he'd need the money the way San does as he just won 100k etc and wouldn't risk a lifetime ban from progaming imo. We're betting against him anyway so it doesn't matter but he's literally the least likely Startale or Yoe member to be implicated if this a) turns out to be a thing and b) extends beyond San, a) being a bit better than 50%ish probably and b) being unlikely but possible

Last edited by SwoopAE; 01-20-2015 at 10:30 AM.
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Old 01-20-2015, 12:42 PM   #189
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Re: Esport Betting?

Official statement from Pinnacle.

In conclusion, Pinnacle have decided that the match was clearly fixed in their opinion.

Anyone want to take it to teamliquid? I might if I could be bothered to make an account rather than lurk.

Dear Client,

We appreciate your kind comments.

Pinnacle Sports has always been very clear that we will take an aggressive stance against any perceived match-fixing or corruption in any sports that we offer betting for.

As the world’s leading eSports bookmaker we are therefore especially committed to preventing corruption and match-manipulation in eSports.

The match has been identified by our fraud prevention team as being manipulated. The bet placement pattern clearly indicates that the match was not played on a fair basis.

As a result all bets on this match have been voided. We apologize for the inconvenience this causes for anyone betting on this match in good faith, but I am sure you will appreciate that protecting the integrity of eSports is of paramount importance.


Kind Regards,
Customer Service Department / Pinnacle Sports

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Old 01-20-2015, 12:56 PM   #190
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well he wrote on twitter that he has to go to the army in south korea? Maybe making a bit of extra money before that.
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:18 PM   #191
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well done uncovering the fix. And congrats on the tournament win.
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Old 01-20-2015, 08:42 PM   #192
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Re: Esport Betting?

Dear anyone who comes here from twitter link; please note im not saying with certainty san threw the game but prior to the game as youll see from timestamped posts i found the line movement suspicious as it would take at least 5 figures on dark at a horrible price to move the line that far. As you can see from my record itt (only this season is posted here but last season i won too recording publicly) im a pretty sharp bettor and there is no way any sharp esports bettor piles 50k plus on dark at -350 or more in a best of 1 vs san without inside info in a game that bth guys clearly have a 40%+ chance of winning. i emailed pinnacle prior to the match (they had already cut limits on the game due to suspicious bets prior to my email) and received the reply posted above in the thread. I made the information public. Thats all i have to do with the situation.

If san turns out to be innocent ill apologise to him although all ive done is report what pinnacle have told me. It looks suspicious to me but its not my place to decide that as i dont have access to pinnacles evidence of fraudulent betting patterns or internal processes; pinnacle is a major legitimate sportsbook is all i know.
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Old 01-20-2015, 11:29 PM   #193
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Re: Esport Betting?

20 plus page thread on teamliquid now so this will be properly investigated which is all i wanted. My position is that while we cant say with certainty san threw the game there is strong circumstantial evidence that warrants further investigation by people more qualified than me and hopefully that investigation will either clear san or provide clear proof of guilt.

And back to handicapping. Lets go maru and hero this week. Should be some value in winners and losers matches in both code s and starleague groups too.
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Old 01-21-2015, 12:53 AM   #194
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Re: Esport Betting?

Lol mo informs the guy on tl that he can/could get his 5k back from ftp i wonder what his reaction will be. Interesting to see responses on a non sportsbetting forum
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Old 01-21-2015, 02:03 AM   #195
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Re: Esport Betting?

Link to liquid thread?
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Old 01-21-2015, 03:03 AM   #196
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Re: Esport Betting?

Its on the teamliquid front page under pinnacle cancels san dark etc
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Old 01-21-2015, 06:28 AM   #197
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Re: Esport Betting?

San came out with a statement saying he had been in the hospital with a sore shoulder and didn't have time to practice much. San might not be guilty himself, but that is definitely inside information that could of been used to bet on dark. Possibly a strategy leak from a coach or something as well.
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Old 01-21-2015, 06:53 AM   #198
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yes could be inside information.

Line movement:
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Old 01-21-2015, 08:45 AM   #199
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Re: Esport Betting?

Its possible his build and injury were leaked by someone; its possible he threw the game and its possible that there were a bunch of weird coincidences and everything was above board but thats the least likely of the three outcomes. Hilarious they think justmo is a pinnacle agent (hint, hes not and you could find that out with google). I probably shouldnt have outright accused san of throwing the game but clearly something happened and objectively its a strong possibility. It did draw attention to the pinny statement but i assume that ends up on tl regardless of anything i say or do.

Hopefully kespa can figure out what happened. I made a tl acc and i might post a timeline of all events, my comments in real time and my correspondence w pinny since piles of misinformation itt
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Old 01-21-2015, 11:09 AM   #200
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Heart Re: Esport Betting?

Cool to see you still betting on sc2, Swoop, i remember you from years ago.

Personally i am up about 55u from sc2 after 700 bets, but kinda running like crap lately, especially in the sk telecom proleague.

Been switching to dota 2 betting last year, due to the very low volume that sc2 provides, while dota volume is masive (sometimes up to 20 picks per day or so). And made about similiar amount of units, but it took like 5x less time to do so.

About San, when i had him @+120 or something and it moved to +185 i knew that something is up, but one of my first thought was a leaked inside to the "close friends" or whatever about his wrist, and not feeling good about his own chances or so.

But after seeing the line move even further and thinking about it for a little bit, its becoming very very unlikely that all it was is just some "inside info". Its just not nearly enough to mass bet on a ZvP in bo1 against the guy who can all-in/cheese/pressure so well, even with some kind of wrist issues.

My guess is that could be some combination of the two - he knew that Dark would probably own him due to his condition, and decided to make a little extra on the side.

The tl forum is hilarious though - "some shady bookie ruins the reputation of the honest player", i wasnt expecting anything less from them.
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