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Old 05-11-2021, 04:04 AM   #1726
JSkelts
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Re: Esport Betting?

PSG vs paiN -285, W, +1u
PSG vs IW -285, W, +1u
IWC vs paiN -110, L, -1.1u
PSG vs MAD +130, L, -1u

IWC MAD O 28.5 -110, L, -1.1u
PNG MAD O 28.5 -110, L, -1.1u
-2.3u

Total -1.06u on 39.91 risked

For tomorrow:
Detonation FocusMe vs DWG, +711, 1u
Infinity vs C9, +386, 1u

Totals:
C9 DWG O 23.5 -109
DFM INF U 24.5 -116
DWG INF O 22.5 -115
DWG DFM O 22.5 -115

Eyeing INF vs DWG as well, might fire a half unit on it if the line moves any more.
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Old 05-11-2021, 04:57 AM   #1727
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Re: Esport Betting?

it's pissing me off i keep forgetting to watch these
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Old 05-12-2021, 03:13 PM   #1728
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Re: Esport Betting?

You're not missing a ton, group stages have pretty much happened as everyone predicted (aside from Pentanet advancing).

DFM vs DWG, +711, L -1u
INF vs C9, +386, L -1u

C9 DWG O 23.5 -109, W +1u
DFM INF U 24.5 -116, L -1.16u
DWG INF O 22.5 -115, W +1u
DWG DFM O 22.5 -115, W +1u

None of the longshots hit and we're at -1.22u on 46.46 risked

Next phase of the tournament starts up on the 14th, its basically 1 big group of the 6 remaining teams that play a double round robin, with the top 4 advancing to a bracket phase. So more to come then.
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Old 05-14-2021, 01:47 AM   #1729
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Re: Esport Betting?

For tomorrow:

RNG vs DWG, -109, 1.09u
Pentanet vs MAD Lions, +475, .5u
PSG Talon vs DWG, +344, 1u
C9 vs MAD, +111, 1u

RNG vs DWG O 26.5 -115
PGG vs MAD O 25.5 -115
C9 vs RNG O 25.5 -115
PSG vs PGG U 27.5 -115
C9 vs MAD O 25.5 -115
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Old 05-15-2021, 06:29 AM   #1730
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Re: Esport Betting?

Got smoked yesterday for -5.1u

For tomorrow:
C9 vs DWG +255, 1u
PSG vs C9 +139, 1u
PSG vs MAD +159, 1u
RNG PGG O 25.5 -115, 1.15u
C9 DWG O 25.5 -118, 1.18u
RNG MAD O 27.5 -116, 1.16u
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Old 05-15-2021, 01:30 PM   #1731
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
Anyways anyone else betting on this incredibly lucrative, low limit & high vig, event with me? Or any sharps (fraud sharps also accepted) want to point me in the direction of how I might go about handling cross region adjustments?
Dota had a similar issue in late March/early April. After about a year of no cross-region play (except close regions like NA/SA, CN/SEA, EU/CIS with ping issues) there was finally a LAN event with top teams from all regions. Finally we got to see how the top EU and CIS teams were against the Chinese and NA teams. Betting markets favored EU/CIS pretty strongly because they are historically strong regions.

I use two power ranking based models: one for teams and one for individual players. Then I take a hybrid of the two and apply adjustments. For example, if the exact 5-man lineup hasn't played many games together, I'll weight the player model more. I was curious how it would handle this exact cross-region issue. The only concrete adjustment I made for the tourney was to increase the "k-factor" slightly to adjust faster based on what happened. In the end, it did well but I'm not sure my adjustment made much of a difference.

Long story short, I did try to think of an adjustment to make for this lack of cross-region play but I didn't do much. I thought about trying to have a factor for historically stronger regions but Elo/similar should do that already. It probably won't matter in the future much either as we're back to LAN play.
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Old 05-16-2021, 04:13 AM   #1732
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Re: Esport Betting?

I appreciate the input, I feel like I have something similar to your player based model and I view a team as the sum of its parts. It's been fine for same league play but international/cross region play is tough for me to crack.
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Old 05-17-2021, 03:09 AM   #1733
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yesterday:
PGG vs C9 +471, L, -1u
PSG vs RNG +302, W, +1.51u
MAD vs DWG +248, L, -1u
C9 vs DWG +275, L, -.5u
PSG vs MAD +150, W, +1.5u

MAD DWG O 26.5 -105, L, -1.05u
PGG RNG O 26.5 -114, W, +1u
DWG C9 O 24.5 -109, W, +1u

+1.46u

Today:
PSG vs RNG +291, 1u
MAD vs DWG +264, 1u
PSG vs DWG +285, 1u
C9 RNG O 26.5 -105, 1.05u
PGG MAD O 27.5 -111, 1.11u
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Old 05-17-2021, 04:18 AM   #1734
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Re: Esport Betting?

Adding C9 PGG O 25.5 -112
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Old 05-18-2021, 05:13 AM   #1735
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Re: Esport Betting?

Last day of round robin as we lost another 2.2ish units yesterday, feelsbadman

RNG vs DWG +100 1u
MAD vs RNG +246, .5u
PSG vs C9 -130 1.3u
RNG DWG O 25.5 -115
RNG MAD O 27.5 -115
PSG C9 O 25.5 -120
MAD C9 O 26.5 -120
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Old 05-18-2021, 09:25 PM   #1736
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Re: Esport Betting?

Much needed 7-0 day for +7.23u. Still at -1.7u for the tournament but our PSG futures are very live as they're in the semis vs RNG. Doubt I'll be hedging it since I dont think the RNG side is +ev, but I have a day or two until lines are out on sites I can bet at so not sure what I'll be on for either semi yet.
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Old 05-20-2021, 06:16 AM   #1737
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Re: Esport Betting?

nicely done, sadly have been too busy to watch/tail but with you in spirit
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Old 05-21-2021, 03:35 AM   #1738
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Re: Esport Betting?

Not hedging the +2200 PSG future, taking these though:
PSG +2.5 Maps, -155, 1.55u
PSG +1.5 Maps, +187, 1u
PSG RNG O 27.5 Map 1, -115
PSG RNG O 27.5 Map 2, -115
PSG RNG O 27.5 Map 3, -115
PSG RNG O 27.5 Map 4, -110
PSG RNG O 27.5 Map 5, -110
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Old 05-22-2021, 02:30 AM   #1739
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Re: Esport Betting?

+.7u but our PSG futures are dead, maybe should have hedged.

Tomorrow:
MAD +2.5 Maps, -135, 1.35u
MAD +1.5 Maps, +244, 1u
MAD ML, +511, .5u

O 23.5 KILLS Map 1, -115, 1.15u
O 23.5 KILLS Map 2, -115, 1.15u
O 23.5 KILLS Map 3, -115, 1.15u
O 23.5 KILLS Map 4, -115, 1.15u
O 24.5 KILLS Map 5, -115, 1.15u
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Old 05-22-2021, 05:04 PM   #1740
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Re: Esport Betting?

+3.64u, close to a much bigger day as MAD were up 2-1 but lost both match point games. Also bricked 2 kill totals by 2 kills. Cant really complain though.

Overall at +2.64u on 101.04 risked, not counting the -.25u we have on the futures.

Bookmaker doesnt have lines for tomorrows final posted yet, I'll post what I have (if anything) when they put them up.
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Old 05-23-2021, 03:01 AM   #1741
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Re: Esport Betting?

I think lines tomorrow are pretty fair, so I don't see myself having any action on the final. I have fair as DWG -108 so if you see better than that for the series go for it, but I'll probably sit it out barring any side gaining major steam.
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Old 05-24-2021, 11:38 PM   #1742
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Re: Esport Betting?

MSI ends and we won 2.64u on 101.04 risked, along with losing .25u on 7.25u risked from futures so we end:

+2.39u on 108.29u

The next split is probably going to start in ~3 weeks away, not sure if I'll keep posting to the void in here but it was fun to do it for an international tournament.
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Old 08-04-2021, 02:11 AM   #1743
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Re: Esport Betting?

Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome. The frequency of sports bet upon varies by culture, with the vast majority of bets being placed on association football, American football, basketball, baseball, hockey, track cycling, auto racing, mixed martial arts, and boxing at both the amateur and professional levels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SQHd1fGFdo


Esports betting is still not legal in the US, Fantasy esports betting is perfectly legal and some people have it to be more fun than traditional match betting. Both UMode and Fantasy Esports are legal because they are not considered as gambling but rather skill games.
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