Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts
Anyways anyone else betting on this incredibly lucrative, low limit & high vig, event with me? Or any sharps (fraud sharps also accepted) want to point me in the direction of how I might go about handling cross region adjustments?
Dota had a similar issue in late March/early April. After about a year of no cross-region play (except close regions like NA/SA, CN/SEA, EU/CIS with ping issues) there was finally a LAN event with top teams from all regions. Finally we got to see how the top EU and CIS teams were against the Chinese and NA teams. Betting markets favored EU/CIS pretty strongly because they are historically strong regions.
I use two power ranking based models: one for teams and one for individual players. Then I take a hybrid of the two and apply adjustments. For example, if the exact 5-man lineup hasn't played many games together, I'll weight the player model more. I was curious how it would handle this exact cross-region issue. The only concrete adjustment I made for the tourney was to increase the "k-factor" slightly to adjust faster based on what happened. In the end, it did well but I'm not sure my adjustment made much of a difference.
Long story short, I did try to think of an adjustment to make for this lack of cross-region play but I didn't do much. I thought about trying to have a factor for historically stronger regions but Elo/similar should do that already. It probably won't matter in the future much either as we're back to LAN play.