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Old 01-17-2015, 04:50 AM   #151
SwoopAE
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Re: Esport Betting?

Hoping for lines soon. Would be nice to get some good openers again this week
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Old 01-17-2015, 08:07 AM   #152
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Re: Esport Betting?

Lines still fresh if anyone wants some. I got kt -219 for max twice cap -300 got san +145 twice cap -105 innovation once -182 cap -200 maru -150 once cap -166 sleep partial +14x capped that game as a pickem and a partial on losira -150 cap at about -155. Hoping for a better price on startale and jinair and either mvp oe samsung ill fade steam. Dream may be a bet at +111 vs leenock i narrowly passed. Same w life -160 vs classic. Best two bets in order are san and kt rolster then in order of my sizings. Few other spots i may fade steam either way as current lines seem sharpish
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Old 01-17-2015, 08:09 AM   #153
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Re: Esport Betting?

Deep in a poker tourney locking in prices i got for thread on all full units will decide if i go full unit on my partials later deep in a poker tourney will post them all properly later
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Old 01-17-2015, 01:11 PM   #154
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ok my Proleague bets for this week so far are (in order from best to worst imo)

Spots that im certain are 5%+ ROI

San +145 (cap -105ish)
KT Rolster -219 vs Prime (cap -300ish)
-------------------------

Spots that i'm pretty certain are +EV

Sleep +145 (cap +105ish)
Innovation -182 (cap -200ish)
Maru -150 (cap -166ish)

A bit more marginal but I think they're +EV narrowly

Jin Air Ace vs CJ Ace -108 (cap -112ish)
Losira -150 (cap -155ish)

Locking them all in for the thread. Let's do this.

Keeping an eye on a few other spots, and Code S and Starleague lines should be out soon. Also have a small sweat on KT -1.5 +122 but already got the ML recorded so not going to multibet the same game ML + Handicap for thread as that kinda defeats the purpose of single unit per bet for the thread. For what it's worth I think that line should be +105ish.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 01-17-2015 at 01:22 PM.
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Old 01-18-2015, 09:01 PM   #155
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Re: Esport Betting?

CJ Hero is getting close to a bet but won't fade JinAir players unless its a super obvious spot given they're my fav team and want to cheer for them

Losira price is pretty solid atm, Maru price was briefly better than what I got but isn't anymore.

Surprised Jinair are such big favs over CJ, I do think they win but not bettable at current line, also surprised Startale never got to +125

Only on Maru and Losira plus JinAir ace if it goes to ace match in CJ/Jinair on todays games most of the bets are on tomorrows ones. Not super excited about todays spots betting wise but both matches should be great from an entertainment perspective. ST/SKTT1 will be great tomorrow too, KT/Prime probably wont be as KT should win easily but the other 3 matches all go the distance to the ace match pretty often and should have some great games
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Old 01-19-2015, 11:19 AM   #156
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Re: Esport Betting?

Jin Air Ace is a push as game was 3-1 so ace never happened

Maru and Losira are both wins so we go 2-0 +2u today


32-14 +13.17u overall

2-0 +2u today

34-14 +15.17u overall. Hope you're all tailing the upswing; don't think this winrate is quite sustainable but games do seem super easy to cap atm and I do think I deserve to be up at least 5u w my capping so far. Who knows, maybe it is sustainable lol we'll find out over the next few weeks. I'm definitely confident I get to +50u before the end of the proleague season which is what we set out to do.

Pending for tomorrow we have Innovation, San, KT Rolster and Sleep.

None of the Code S or Starleague openers look amazing at first glance will take a second look later haven't done any real analysis yet.
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Old 01-19-2015, 01:09 PM   #157
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Re: Esport Betting?

San got up to +151 briefly, added most of another unit; +148 now. He beat Dark 2-0 literally in 2015 and has a better record in the matchup. It's nowhere near a lock but he is not an underdog.

Also Startale +122 is close to bettable, not firing unless it goes above +125 though or if the +1.5 gets to about -175ish

KT is still +EV at current price as I cap it at -300 and theyre still -250, BboongBboong prob is +EV now but not gonna play it unless it improves even more as I have KT straight up and Zest is getting closer to bettable although not a bet yet.

0.05u 9 game parlay to win 4.3u is still live as well needing Sleep, Zest, San, Life and Innovation to smash out a perfect 9 for 9 for the week on individual games
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Old 01-19-2015, 01:22 PM   #158
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Re: Esport Betting?

Nice wins today!

San is +152 atm I added another unit too.
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Old 01-19-2015, 01:55 PM   #159
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Re: Esport Betting?

San +255
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Old 01-19-2015, 08:49 PM   #160
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Re: Esport Betting?

Added another 1.5 on san +177 if he was really +255 thats just absurd. If i wasnt used to absurd esports lines id say its too good to be true. It really should be a 10u+ bet at +255. I mean its best of 1 most of proleague is a bet vs dark at that price let alone a pvz specialist
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Old 01-20-2015, 04:59 AM   #161
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Re: Esport Betting?

running hot this month just won the aussie mills 2500 8game for 38.8k

Also, San +200 is absurd if it wasnt for the fact that esports steam is so consistently wrong id suspect a fix - added another 1.6u. Also added 1.8u on KT -227 and 1.2u on Startale +1.5 -170, all good lines. I'd recommend all three spots.

Will update thread w my average prices in a sec.
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Old 01-20-2015, 05:03 AM   #162
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Re: Esport Betting?

Average prices for tonights bets

KT Rolster -223 (got over 4u on this now)
Sleep +145
Innovation -182
San +180ish (lol wtf I have over 6 units on him now since price got absurd had to add more AND he's currently +200 if anyone wants some, as a reminder I cap this at San -105)
Startale-Yoe +1.5 -170

San and KT are definitely the biggest value spots today. Other 3 are all good at avg price I got though.

I mean ffs San beat Dark, his opponent today, 2-0 less than two weeks ago. It's baffling that he's +200 now. San has a 70%!!! lifetime winrate in the matchup

Win or lose this is probably in the three most +EV esports bets ive ever made. I got a -250ish fav at +128 once which may have been the best, other than that this may be the best spot I can think of in recent memory (inb4 all bets except this one win today obv)

gl anyone tailing today. Between the five I expect to show profit most of the time, and i'd be super shocked if San and KT go 0-2 and not at all surprised if they 2-0 and you can pretty much break even with a 1-1 betting both atm

For the record this info below is publicly available. Yes, Dark's OVERALL form is better, but thats literally it. In the matchup being played today, even San's form is better and all of the other stats speak for themselves.

(2185) San vs Dark (1984)
830–464 (64.14%) Historical score (58.55%) 226–160
293–125 (70.10%) Score vs. opposing race (50.34%) 73–72
33–26 (55.93%) Form (73.81%) 31–11
10–4 (71.43%) Form vs. opposing race (69.57%) 16–7
2–0 (100.00%) Score vs. each other (0.00%) 0–2
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:22 AM   #163
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Re: Esport Betting?

ok san is +239 now this is pretty suspicious lol gonna hold off now but i mean objectively its absurd

objectively dark is not even close to -250 here. either im retarded for not piling 25 units in here or idk. if san does some weird build that looks like a throw ill never bet on his matches again, obv if its a close game its fine

edit: san +262. he was +11x yesterday. crazy.

if san's build looks like a deliberate throw i may even email kespa to look into it never seen anything like this. I'm scared. That said if the game is legit this is now literally the best esports bet i have ever made, to get a pickem at +26x
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:37 AM   #164
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Re: Esport Betting?

San now at +305
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:41 AM   #165
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Re: Esport Betting?

Do you use pinnacle? San is +302 on pinni? Do I bet it or not?
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:43 AM   #166
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yes its pinny, read swoops posts and decide for yourself, this big jump in odds is weird
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:44 AM   #167
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Re: Esport Betting?

Do esport lines usually move this much? Seems suspicious for sure
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:44 AM   #168
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Re: Esport Betting?

San +302 ... Fixed match?
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:51 AM   #169
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Re: Esport Betting?

Who ever is fixing this match must love us betting on it, back to + 280
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Old 01-20-2015, 06:53 AM   #170
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Re: Esport Betting?

+230, in before +300 again
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:00 AM   #171
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Re: Esport Betting?

Unless the line moves every $10 this is just retarded and there is no way there isn't some kind of inside job going on. Was down to +200, now back to +340
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:24 AM   #172
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Re: Esport Betting?

Max bet is over 1k , so no 10$ movement
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:26 AM   #173
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Re: Esport Betting?

Its suspicious I agree im not adding more because of that. I've seen line moves like this fail before though. On the surface this is a +100 to -105 for San. I actually tweeted at Pinnacle that this is suspicious if San's build looks like a throw. I'd stay away from Startale +1.5 now because if the San game is a fix it's not good. That said, i've seen lines go from -400 to -180 and still win, or +100 to +240 and still win etc. Will be interesting to see what the actual game looks like this is either literally the best spot ever or a fix. I'll give my analysis after the game.

Sweat on KT here 2-2 now vs prime was down 1-2. Should win still but sweats.
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:27 AM   #174
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by alexo18 View Post
Max bet is over 1k , so no 10$ movement
Yeah originally it was at like 300 when it started a huge climb after opening small. It could be some massive whale who just thinks San will lose but it's incredibly suspicious. Then again so was CJ going from -400 to -200 vs Prime, going down 1-2 then coming back to win 3-2 and hold anyway in week 1
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Old 01-20-2015, 07:29 AM   #175
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Re: Esport Betting?

the bo1 structure is a problem i think, just don't like that in a game where you can basically lose the game beforehand by just picking the wrong build. San can just play something crazy and be like 'well didn't work'.
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