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Old 05-31-2020, 03:10 AM   #1701
rickroll
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
Anyone else watching MSC? I'm essentially fading LCK entirely.
been watching a little bit, acr didn't post any of it until today and going to do some of chat pleb live betting
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Old 05-31-2020, 03:39 AM   #1702
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear View Post
Skimmed a little bit i'm sure it's in the thread but didn't see the answer to this readily at hand:

Best US facing site for starcraft 2 betting of reasonable size? Not interested in the other esports, asking exclusively about starcraft. I'm using 5dimes right now but they limit me to $100 a bet and frequently move the line 25 pts after i bet it. I'd even venture i'm one of the only people betting some of these lines sometimes.

Really feels like i have an edge even so, but not sure if it's worth my time looking for a book that will accept larger wagers on this.
Betonline - ive only bet starcraft 2 like 6 times so not sure limits but if comparable to other offering then pretty ok before they limit u
Bookmaker
Heritage ?

Bout it..... murrrrica
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:06 PM   #1703
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Re: Esport Betting?

I bet on esportson BetOnline also. Dota/CSGO but my max bet is anywhere from 888-1k on most games. Sometimes it's less not sure their reasoning maybe just to limit exposure on one side. Usually though the max bet is good.
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:16 AM   #1704
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Re: Esport Betting?

In further "books have no idea what theyre doing with esports" news:
  • Betonline has C9 to win the split at -147, Bovada at -250.
  • Betonline has TL at +260 to win the split, Bovada at +1600 (actually just moved to +1000)

Theres more, but these are some pretty massive differences lol
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Old 06-12-2020, 08:52 AM   #1705
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Re: Esport Betting?

Whatever company runs their software has no idea, I assume Betonline has zero to do with them though since I have like 1-25 dollar limits on all esports. Then again I now have 100 prop limits on all sports even ones Iím surely not winning at so maybe they have gone soft or itís just a sign of the times.
Their openers are amazing though, decent limits/all parlayable, plus they donít seem to just copy/wait until Pinny or whoever originates e sports lines, so atleast got balls even though itís likely just their softwares reputation and betonlines bottom line at risk. Give them hell while you can skelts.
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Old 06-13-2020, 09:30 AM   #1706
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Re: Esport Betting?

Unfortunately I'm not a megaballer so I'm not betting large amounts on these games, but hopefully that means I'm too small to be on their radar and theyll just let me do my thing. The software is definitely some random third party, I remember looking at BOL futures last split (pre covid) and the things had like a $50 max payout. So betting on something at +1800 meant you couldnt even risk $3 on it - its bizarre.

Plus if we needed any proof these guys dont know how esports work, you can still bet LCS futures on Bovada even though the season has already started.

For the major leagues these are the futures I landed on (no LPL ones because I was too lazy):
C9 to Win the split -147, 1.47u
G2 to Win the split, -182, 1.82u
DRX to Win the split, +400, 2u
GenG to Win the split, +400, .5u

R8/H8/DB8
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:12 AM   #1707
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
For the major leagues these are the futures I landed on (no LPL ones because I was too lazy):
C9 to Win the split -147, 1.47u
G2 to Win the split, -182, 1.82u
DRX to Win the split, +400, 2u
GenG to Win the split, +400, .5u

R8/H8/DB8
this is likely an ignorant statement because i see what you're doing done quite often, but unless i'm mistaken only one can win so those are negatively correlated - ie only way you profit there is if DRX wins, which makes me wonder why not just pick on and stick with it?
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:27 AM   #1708
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Re: Esport Betting?

They're negatively correlated but both +EV (imo) - so I only end up capping my ceiling. For example imagine that both Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson opened as +1000000000000000 to win MVP next season, I think betting on both would be +EV although only one can win.
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Old 06-26-2020, 03:14 AM   #1709
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Re: Esport Betting?

i think i may have stumbled across something for the 6/27 FPX v ES match in the LOL LPL

ES has a team strategy of chasing drake/dragon objectives, since the earlier ones are often uncontested, the team that gets the earlier dragons is not necessarily in control nor winning the game

thus far on the season they've gotten 67% of all the drakes/dragons available, a significantly higher amount than even the other teams that prioritize them as well.
https://oracleselixir.com/statistics...am-statistics/

they were always head and shoulders above the rest in the spring as well at 60%
https://oracleselixir.com/statistics...am-statistics/

yet right now, you can bet them as the dogs to get drakes in their upcoming match vs FPX, it's understandable because while ES is one of the better teams, FPX has looked dominant lately - and recently had some major postseason success and are -240 per map and -350 for the series

however, I don't think those odds are reasonable and ES could very plausibly win this matchup outright, in which case the drakes would be a lock but they could still get it even if they lose the matchup

Drake Rules: they spawn every 5 minutes (after last one killed) until one team has 4 of them and then Dragons spawn - when the book says drake/dragon i'm legit unsure if they mean both as it's used interchangeably but it's likely to our advantage if only drakes as the dragons often are so late in the game (ie less likely ES get them) that they are never taken

Drake Meta: The early ones are often uncontested by many teams whereas the non contesting team using that drake distraction to take down other objectives. Later on in the game the bonuses of the drake kills scale, particularly once you get your fourth one so when a team already has 3 there's nearly always a big battle for it. Drake stealing is very common as you simply need to be the side that gets the last hit so many times a team that's good at taking them but losing the game and not strong enough to move in a fight for it can snipe the kill by jumping over the wall then escaping. Games usually last 30-50 minutes so there's nearly always one team that caps it at 4 drakes - only in total fluke blowouts where the winner just said f it and blasts into the base will neither team get a 4th drake

Right now I'm putting down some units on:
Estar first Drake +106 (x3 maps) this seems safest as the first one is almost never contested. FPX, despite being an elite team only gets 49% of the drakes so far this season so unless they make a conscience effort to mess with ES chase the drake strategy these are incredibly good bets at plus odds.

putting a small amount on these:
Estar +1.5 Drakes -115 (x3 maps) this feels like they could win straight up but even if FPX dominates and contests the drakes it'll still give a win if they lose 3-4 as sometimes happens

ES o.5 Nashors +174 (x3 maps) this is like the dragon but appears late game and give a very powerful temporary bonus - it's often the focal point of the game - i'm just putting a minimal amount on, ES only get about 50% of them whereas FPX get 60% and the winning team usually gets them - however there are enough steals and sneak plays and sometimes 2 are taken that +174 seems pretty good - especially since if ES wins the map they were already favorites to get 1 anyway

ES o1.5 Drakes -135 (x3 maps) even if badly losing and FPX counters them, this seems like they could stumble into getting 2x per map

fading
Estar +3.5 Drakes -141 (considering this one but not acting on it yet as -141 is no bueno imo)

but the beauty of this entire thing is the books are clearly at odds with themselves:

they have estar to win a single map at -147 but more importantly, the FPX drake per map line is o3.5 +130

since there's always one team to get 4, this is a massive contradiction to put it at +odds that really makes you go back and question why the linemaker put ES as the dogs as well?

Maybe I'm wrong, but one team will hit 4 drakes each map with near certainty so even if you don't like the ES side here, the FPX side is very tasty too - maybe even some room for a hedge

EDIT: Just refreshed and they've added some new props

ES Nashor +1.5 -102(series)

ES Nashor +.5 +182 (x3 maps - doing this instead of the o.5 as usually 0-2 are taken so more routes to a win here and better odds too wtf)

ES Most Nashors +277 (small amount)

Total Drakes o4.5 -147 (x3 maps) (this is absurd since a min of 4 will happen unless it's some freakish game - nearly always 5-6 are taken almost never see a 4-0 sweep)

Last edited by rickroll; 06-26-2020 at 03:24 AM.
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Old 06-27-2020, 09:39 AM   #1710
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Re: Esport Betting?

Recap: ES just got absolutely curb stomped, maybe jskelts may disagree but I expected a close one and 3 game series given both teams were top tier last year - them being competitive influenced some of the other correlated bets I made

ES 1st Drake Map1 win 1.48u
ES 1st Drake Map2 win 1.48u
ES +1.5 Drakes Map1 -.46u
ES +1.5 Drakes Map2 -.46u
ES o1.5 Drakes Map1 lose -.54u
ES o1.5 Drakes Map2 lose -.54u
ES Most Drakes Series lose -.4u
ES Most Drakes Map1 lose -.4u
ES Most Drakes Map2 lose -.4u
ES Most Nashors lose -.4u
ES Most Nashors Map1 lose -.4u
ES Most Nashors Map2 lose -.4u
o4.5 Drakes Map1 win .95u
o4.5 Drakes Map2 lose 1.4u
ES Nashors +1.5 Series lose -.41u
ES Nashors +.5 Map1 lose -.4u
ES Nashors +.5 Map2 lose -.4u

total 3-14 -3.09u

them getting stomped was definitely in the realm of possibility but I strongly feel if those games were even remotely close the other correlated bets would have had a good shot and most of them were at big plus odds, the problem was these games were so out of hand that whenever FPX went for a late game drake or nashor it was uncontested because the ES guys were already dead - had it been an FPX dominated game but ES was hanging around they would have had a good shot at sniping a few of them

at least went 3-1 for +2.54 units in the conviction plays of first drake and o4.5 drakes

today I noticed live that the book had Suning's o/u at 4.5 and it's capped at 4... I mean there are elder dragons but those rare come into account so I blasted that one live as well as slammed DMO at o1.5 drakes when they had a commanding in game lead and already had one drake (finished with 4)

will be scanning drake props for a while and posting more - follow at your own risk
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Old 06-27-2020, 04:04 PM   #1711
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Re: Esport Betting?

I had eStar/FPX as a slightly FPX favored flip so I think it was 100% fine to take some eStar exposure based on objectives if they were a dog there. I havent looked at Dragon/Baron numbers much but its probably an exploitable market if anyone here is motivated enough to look into it.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:29 PM   #1712
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Re: Esport Betting?

thanks, that's very reassuring, let's just say my other props not doing well either
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Old 12-28-2020, 12:59 AM   #1713
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Re: Esport Betting?

Anyone have historical lines on the derivative/props/whatever theyre called markets for esports? Things like first bloods, first towers, first dragons, etc. All I can find is Oddsportal which only contains money line history.
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Old 01-02-2021, 06:00 PM   #1714
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
Anyone have historical lines on the derivative/props/whatever theyre called markets for esports? Things like first bloods, first towers, first dragons, etc. All I can find is Oddsportal which only contains money line history.
I don't have this.

You could capture some things like match spreads or total kills from something like the Fairlay API but they don't have most of the more exotic bets. I can tell you these prices don't appear in Bookmaker's line feed. Some of the "X towers destroyed" lines move in sync with the game lines at some books but some of them like "First to X kills" don't. If you find a good place to get them, I'm interested.
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Old 01-02-2021, 07:13 PM   #1715
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by LogistX View Post
I don't have this.

You could capture some things like match spreads or total kills from something like the Fairlay API but they don't have most of the more exotic bets. I can tell you these prices don't appear in Bookmaker's line feed. Some of the "X towers destroyed" lines move in sync with the game lines at some books but some of them like "First to X kills" don't. If you find a good place to get them, I'm interested.
Places like Bovada/BOL offered things like first bloods/first towers/first dragons and I was hoping to backtest some stuff off of any historical data - but it seems to be impossible to find. I think those markets are probably quite beatable depending on vig.
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Old 04-27-2021, 03:48 AM   #1716
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Re: Esport Betting?

Bringing this back because MSI is in a week and there's been a lot of talk about should fish (me) post picks in individual sport threads. I've had 3 pretty solid splits of betting on LoL using a model I've developed, but international tournaments are unique and I'd love some insight from sharps on how to handle accounting for adjusting stats between two teams from different leagues. I.e. how do you cap a champions league game between team A from the EPL and team B from the Russian league? How do you adjust both teams stats in your model based on their specific league? Or do you just have an Elo type model across all teams that could conceivably compete?

What I'm doing for this tournament is looking at the last ~3 years of international tournaments and comparing how teams have fared at them vs how they fared domestically, and applying those adjustments and rerunning them through my model. We have a few days until the tournament starts but I'm taking these futures:
PSG TALON TO QUALIFY FROM GROUP, -225, 2.25u
PSG TALON TO WIN GROUP, +240, 2u
PSG TALON TO WIN, +4000, 1u (not going to happen but imagine if it did)
PENTANET.GG TO QUALIFY FROM GROUP, +275, 1u

PSG Talon broke my model because of how dominant they were domestically so I've had to manually tone them down, but even with that I think they might be the strongest team in their group. At least I did think that until I placed my bets and 30 minutes later they announced their ADC would miss MSI because of health problems. My fault for not accounting for the classic esports injury situation.

Pentanet is in a 3 team group where 2 teams qualify and even though the OCE region has been reformed this year and is weaker than in years past, I cant see them being a +275 dog to another relatively weak region team (CIS). At least not based on how OCE/CIS teams have done recently abroad.

Anyways anyone else betting on this incredibly lucrative, low limit & high vig, event with me? Or any sharps (fraud sharps also accepted) want to point me in the direction of how I might go about handling cross region adjustments?
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Old 05-05-2021, 05:54 PM   #1717
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Re: Esport Betting?

MSI starts tomorrow, so here's the futures I added:
PSG TO MAKE FINALS, +2200, 1u
Why not I'm basically all in on them at every step so far.

Tomorrow I have these:
PSG Talon vs MAD Lions, +139, 2u
I've said my piece on them already, but based on my models output I think PSG is the second or third best team in the tournament and is super undervalued by the market.
Pentanet vs UOL, +235, 1u
I dont think the gap between OCE and CIS is big enough for this team to be +235. They'll probably lose but whatever.
Istanbul Wildcats vs paiN Gaming, -115, 1.15u
Model has fair at -137 so obviously buying at -115.

Kill totals:
DWG vs C9 O 25.5 Kills, -111, 1.11u
PGG vs UOL U 27.5 Kills, -111, 1.11u
INF vs DTFM U 24.5 Kills, -115, 1.15u
IWC vs PNG U 26.5 Kills, -115, 1.15u

Lets gamble on some video games boys
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Old 05-05-2021, 10:07 PM   #1718
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Re: Esport Betting?

Just got home from work, tried to tail you on the H2H moneylines but looks like the lines already got worked over by someone who read your post. Good luck, hopefully I can get some action down earlier next time.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:00 PM   #1719
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Re: Esport Betting?

glgl
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:47 PM   #1720
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Re: Esport Betting?

Got giga owned for -4.41u on 8.67 risked, PSG looked bad which isnt great but its also 1 game so can't over index.

Tomorrow I've got
PSG Talon vs paiN Gaming -256, 2.56u

Kill totals:
RNG UOL O 26.5 -114, 1.14u
IWC MAD O 26.5 -115, 1.15u
PSG PNG U 27.5 -116, 1.16u
C9 DFM O 23.5 -115, 1.15u
INF DWG O 23.5 -115, 1.15u
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Old 05-07-2021, 09:30 PM   #1721
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Re: Esport Betting?

PSG Talon vs paiN Gaming -256, W +1u

RNG UOL O 26.5, 1.14u, L -1.14u
IWC MAD O 26.5, 1.15u, W +1u
PSG PNG U 27.5, 1.16u, W +1u
C9 DFM O 23.5, 1.15u, L -1.15u
INF DWG O 23.5, 1.15u, L -1.15u

So I'm cumulatively at-4.85u on 22.8 risked

Kind of annoyed that DFM closed at a line I would have bet them at, but I was too lazy to keep checking and missed on that. Whatever, here's what I've got for tomorrow:

Infinity vs Cloud9, +337, .5u
PentanetGG vs UOL, +244, 1u

UOL RNG O 25.5 -116
PGG UOL U 25.5 -103
DWG vs DFM O 23.5 -108
MAD PNG O 27.5 -105
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Old 05-08-2021, 03:23 PM   #1722
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Re: Esport Betting?

Good day to be back above 0. I'm not sure what to do with these upcoming days since every team just plays each other over and over.

UOL RNG O 25.5 -116 W, +1u
PGG UOL U 25.5 -103 W, +1u
DWG vs DFM O 23.5 -108 W, +1u
MAD PNG O 27.5 -105 W, +1u

INF vs C9, +337, .5u, L -.5u
PGG vs UOL, +244, 1u, W, +2.44u

+5.94u
Total +1.09u
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Old 05-09-2021, 12:01 AM   #1723
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Re: Esport Betting?

Weird stuff for tomorrow as the three teams in group A play a double round robin and I wont be around to make adjustments after each game so we're just firing the whole slate now.

[Game 1] PENTANET vs UOL +200, 1u
[Game 2] PENTANET vs UOL +200, 1u

[Game 1] UOL vs RNG O 25.5 -120, 1.2u
[Game 1] PGG v UOL U 25.5 -106, 1.06u
[Game 2] UOL vs RNG O 25.5 -115, 1.15u
[Game 2] PGG v UOL U 26.5 -120, 1.2u

I also think there's a non 0 chance that RNG play a more "experimental" style/comp on the last few games of the day when they're guaranteed to progress, which likely drives up totals and Pentanets win %. So maybe some opportunities for live betting there if anyone's around for that.
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Old 05-09-2021, 01:34 PM   #1724
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Re: Esport Betting?

RNG have already qualified for the next stage and are playing their sub top laner for their last game of group stage, probably trying to win but going to fire .5u on Pentanet at +906 in case they really just try some weird champs.
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Old 05-09-2021, 08:44 PM   #1725
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Re: Esport Betting?

[Game 1] PENTANET vs UOL +200, 1u, L, -1u
[Game 2] PENTANET vs UOL +200, 1u, W, +2u
[Game 2] PENTANET vs RNG +906, .5u, L -.5u

[Game 1] UOL vs RNG O 25.5 -120, 1.2u, W, +1u
[Game 1] PGG v UOL U 25.5 -106, 1.06u, W +1u
[Game 2] UOL vs RNG O 25.5 -115, 1.15u, L -1.15u
[Game 2] PGG v UOL U 26.5 -120, 1.2u, L -1.2u

For a massive +.15u
Total +1.24u on 29.91 risked

Tomorrow I have:
PSG Talon vs paiN -285, 2.85u
PSG Talon vs IW -285, 2.85u
Istanbul Wildcatsvs paiN -110, 1.1u
PSG Talon vs MAD +130, 1u

Kill totals:
IWC MAD O 28.5 -110, 1.1u
PNG MAD O 28.5 -110, 1.1u
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