i think i may have stumbled across something for the 6/27 FPX v ES match in the LOL LPL
ES has a team strategy of chasing drake/dragon objectives, since the earlier ones are often uncontested, the team that gets the earlier dragons is not necessarily in control nor winning the game
thus far on the season they've gotten 67% of all the drakes/dragons available, a significantly higher amount than even the other teams that prioritize them as well.
https://oracleselixir.com/statistics...am-statistics/
they were always head and shoulders above the rest in the spring as well at 60%
https://oracleselixir.com/statistics...am-statistics/
yet right now, you can bet them as the dogs to get drakes in their upcoming match vs FPX, it's understandable because while ES is one of the better teams, FPX has looked dominant lately - and recently had some major postseason success and are -240 per map and -350 for the series
however, I don't think those odds are reasonable and ES could very plausibly win this matchup outright, in which case the drakes would be a lock but they could still get it even if they lose the matchup
Drake Rules: they spawn every 5 minutes (after last one killed) until one team has 4 of them and then Dragons spawn - when the book says drake/dragon i'm legit unsure if they mean both as it's used interchangeably but it's likely to our advantage if only drakes as the dragons often are so late in the game (ie less likely ES get them) that they are never taken
Drake Meta: The early ones are often uncontested by many teams whereas the non contesting team using that drake distraction to take down other objectives. Later on in the game the bonuses of the drake kills scale, particularly once you get your fourth one so when a team already has 3 there's nearly always a big battle for it. Drake stealing is very common as you simply need to be the side that gets the last hit so many times a team that's good at taking them but losing the game and not strong enough to move in a fight for it can snipe the kill by jumping over the wall then escaping. Games usually last 30-50 minutes so there's nearly always one team that caps it at 4 drakes - only in total fluke blowouts where the winner just said f it and blasts into the base will neither team get a 4th drake
Right now I'm putting down some units on:
Estar first Drake +106 (x3 maps) this seems safest as the first one is almost never contested. FPX, despite being an elite team only gets 49% of the drakes so far this season so unless they make a conscience effort to mess with ES chase the drake strategy these are incredibly good bets at plus odds.
putting a small amount on these:
Estar +1.5 Drakes -115 (x3 maps) this feels like they could win straight up but even if FPX dominates and contests the drakes it'll still give a win if they lose 3-4 as sometimes happens
ES o.5 Nashors +174 (x3 maps) this is like the dragon but appears late game and give a very powerful temporary bonus - it's often the focal point of the game - i'm just putting a minimal amount on, ES only get about 50% of them whereas FPX get 60% and the winning team usually gets them - however there are enough steals and sneak plays and sometimes 2 are taken that +174 seems pretty good - especially since if ES wins the map they were already favorites to get 1 anyway
ES o1.5 Drakes -135 (x3 maps) even if badly losing and FPX counters them, this seems like they could stumble into getting 2x per map
fading
Estar +3.5 Drakes -141 (considering this one but not acting on it yet as -141 is no bueno imo)
but the beauty of this entire thing is the books are clearly at odds with themselves:
they have estar to win a single map at -147 but more importantly, the FPX drake per map line is o3.5 +130
since there's always one team to get 4, this is a massive contradiction to put it at +odds that really makes you go back and question why the linemaker put ES as the dogs as well?
Maybe I'm wrong, but one team will hit 4 drakes each map with near certainty so even if you don't like the ES side here, the FPX side is very tasty too - maybe even some room for a hedge
EDIT: Just refreshed and they've added some new props
ES Nashor +1.5 -102(series)
ES Nashor +.5 +182 (x3 maps - doing this instead of the o.5 as usually 0-2 are taken so more routes to a win here and better odds too wtf)
ES Most Nashors +277 (small amount)
Total Drakes o4.5 -147 (x3 maps) (this is absurd since a min of 4 will happen unless it's some freakish game - nearly always 5-6 are taken almost never see a 4-0 sweep)
Last edited by rickroll; 06-26-2020 at 03:24 AM.