Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-31-2020, 03:10 AM   #1701
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,677
Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
Anyone else watching MSC? I'm essentially fading LCK entirely.
been watching a little bit, acr didn't post any of it until today and going to do some of chat pleb live betting
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-31-2020, 03:39 AM   #1702
Hammerzitzen
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 227
Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear View Post
Skimmed a little bit i'm sure it's in the thread but didn't see the answer to this readily at hand:

Best US facing site for starcraft 2 betting of reasonable size? Not interested in the other esports, asking exclusively about starcraft. I'm using 5dimes right now but they limit me to $100 a bet and frequently move the line 25 pts after i bet it. I'd even venture i'm one of the only people betting some of these lines sometimes.

Really feels like i have an edge even so, but not sure if it's worth my time looking for a book that will accept larger wagers on this.
Betonline - ive only bet starcraft 2 like 6 times so not sure limits but if comparable to other offering then pretty ok before they limit u
Bookmaker
Heritage ?

Bout it..... murrrrica
Hammerzitzen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-01-2020, 04:06 PM   #1703
DevoGKT
centurion
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Chicago
Posts: 149
Re: Esport Betting?

I bet on esportson BetOnline also. Dota/CSGO but my max bet is anywhere from 888-1k on most games. Sometimes it's less not sure their reasoning maybe just to limit exposure on one side. Usually though the max bet is good.
DevoGKT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2020, 05:16 AM   #1704
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 417
Re: Esport Betting?

In further "books have no idea what theyre doing with esports" news:
  • Betonline has C9 to win the split at -147, Bovada at -250.
  • Betonline has TL at +260 to win the split, Bovada at +1600 (actually just moved to +1000)

Theres more, but these are some pretty massive differences lol
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2020, 08:52 AM   #1705
Hammerzitzen
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 227
Re: Esport Betting?

Whatever company runs their software has no idea, I assume Betonline has zero to do with them though since I have like 1-25 dollar limits on all esports. Then again I now have 100 prop limits on all sports even ones Iím surely not winning at so maybe they have gone soft or itís just a sign of the times.
Their openers are amazing though, decent limits/all parlayable, plus they donít seem to just copy/wait until Pinny or whoever originates e sports lines, so atleast got balls even though itís likely just their softwares reputation and betonlines bottom line at risk. Give them hell while you can skelts.
Hammerzitzen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2020, 09:30 AM   #1706
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 417
Re: Esport Betting?

Unfortunately I'm not a megaballer so I'm not betting large amounts on these games, but hopefully that means I'm too small to be on their radar and theyll just let me do my thing. The software is definitely some random third party, I remember looking at BOL futures last split (pre covid) and the things had like a $50 max payout. So betting on something at +1800 meant you couldnt even risk $3 on it - its bizarre.

Plus if we needed any proof these guys dont know how esports work, you can still bet LCS futures on Bovada even though the season has already started.

For the major leagues these are the futures I landed on (no LPL ones because I was too lazy):
C9 to Win the split -147, 1.47u
G2 to Win the split, -182, 1.82u
DRX to Win the split, +400, 2u
GenG to Win the split, +400, .5u

R8/H8/DB8
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2020, 10:12 AM   #1707
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,677
Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
For the major leagues these are the futures I landed on (no LPL ones because I was too lazy):
C9 to Win the split -147, 1.47u
G2 to Win the split, -182, 1.82u
DRX to Win the split, +400, 2u
GenG to Win the split, +400, .5u

R8/H8/DB8
this is likely an ignorant statement because i see what you're doing done quite often, but unless i'm mistaken only one can win so those are negatively correlated - ie only way you profit there is if DRX wins, which makes me wonder why not just pick on and stick with it?
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2020, 10:27 AM   #1708
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 417
Re: Esport Betting?

They're negatively correlated but both +EV (imo) - so I only end up capping my ceiling. For example imagine that both Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson opened as +1000000000000000 to win MVP next season, I think betting on both would be +EV although only one can win.
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-26-2020, 03:14 AM   #1709
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,677
Re: Esport Betting?

i think i may have stumbled across something for the 6/27 FPX v ES match in the LOL LPL

ES has a team strategy of chasing drake/dragon objectives, since the earlier ones are often uncontested, the team that gets the earlier dragons is not necessarily in control nor winning the game

thus far on the season they've gotten 67% of all the drakes/dragons available, a significantly higher amount than even the other teams that prioritize them as well.
https://oracleselixir.com/statistics...am-statistics/

they were always head and shoulders above the rest in the spring as well at 60%
https://oracleselixir.com/statistics...am-statistics/

yet right now, you can bet them as the dogs to get drakes in their upcoming match vs FPX, it's understandable because while ES is one of the better teams, FPX has looked dominant lately - and recently had some major postseason success and are -240 per map and -350 for the series

however, I don't think those odds are reasonable and ES could very plausibly win this matchup outright, in which case the drakes would be a lock but they could still get it even if they lose the matchup

Drake Rules: they spawn every 5 minutes (after last one killed) until one team has 4 of them and then Dragons spawn - when the book says drake/dragon i'm legit unsure if they mean both as it's used interchangeably but it's likely to our advantage if only drakes as the dragons often are so late in the game (ie less likely ES get them) that they are never taken

Drake Meta: The early ones are often uncontested by many teams whereas the non contesting team using that drake distraction to take down other objectives. Later on in the game the bonuses of the drake kills scale, particularly once you get your fourth one so when a team already has 3 there's nearly always a big battle for it. Drake stealing is very common as you simply need to be the side that gets the last hit so many times a team that's good at taking them but losing the game and not strong enough to move in a fight for it can snipe the kill by jumping over the wall then escaping. Games usually last 30-50 minutes so there's nearly always one team that caps it at 4 drakes - only in total fluke blowouts where the winner just said f it and blasts into the base will neither team get a 4th drake

Right now I'm putting down some units on:
Estar first Drake +106 (x3 maps) this seems safest as the first one is almost never contested. FPX, despite being an elite team only gets 49% of the drakes so far this season so unless they make a conscience effort to mess with ES chase the drake strategy these are incredibly good bets at plus odds.

putting a small amount on these:
Estar +1.5 Drakes -115 (x3 maps) this feels like they could win straight up but even if FPX dominates and contests the drakes it'll still give a win if they lose 3-4 as sometimes happens

ES o.5 Nashors +174 (x3 maps) this is like the dragon but appears late game and give a very powerful temporary bonus - it's often the focal point of the game - i'm just putting a minimal amount on, ES only get about 50% of them whereas FPX get 60% and the winning team usually gets them - however there are enough steals and sneak plays and sometimes 2 are taken that +174 seems pretty good - especially since if ES wins the map they were already favorites to get 1 anyway

ES o1.5 Drakes -135 (x3 maps) even if badly losing and FPX counters them, this seems like they could stumble into getting 2x per map

fading
Estar +3.5 Drakes -141 (considering this one but not acting on it yet as -141 is no bueno imo)

but the beauty of this entire thing is the books are clearly at odds with themselves:

they have estar to win a single map at -147 but more importantly, the FPX drake per map line is o3.5 +130

since there's always one team to get 4, this is a massive contradiction to put it at +odds that really makes you go back and question why the linemaker put ES as the dogs as well?

Maybe I'm wrong, but one team will hit 4 drakes each map with near certainty so even if you don't like the ES side here, the FPX side is very tasty too - maybe even some room for a hedge

EDIT: Just refreshed and they've added some new props

ES Nashor +1.5 -102(series)

ES Nashor +.5 +182 (x3 maps - doing this instead of the o.5 as usually 0-2 are taken so more routes to a win here and better odds too wtf)

ES Most Nashors +277 (small amount)

Total Drakes o4.5 -147 (x3 maps) (this is absurd since a min of 4 will happen unless it's some freakish game - nearly always 5-6 are taken almost never see a 4-0 sweep)

Last edited by rickroll; 06-26-2020 at 03:24 AM.
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-27-2020, 09:39 AM   #1710
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,677
Re: Esport Betting?

Recap: ES just got absolutely curb stomped, maybe jskelts may disagree but I expected a close one and 3 game series given both teams were top tier last year - them being competitive influenced some of the other correlated bets I made

ES 1st Drake Map1 win 1.48u
ES 1st Drake Map2 win 1.48u
ES +1.5 Drakes Map1 -.46u
ES +1.5 Drakes Map2 -.46u
ES o1.5 Drakes Map1 lose -.54u
ES o1.5 Drakes Map2 lose -.54u
ES Most Drakes Series lose -.4u
ES Most Drakes Map1 lose -.4u
ES Most Drakes Map2 lose -.4u
ES Most Nashors lose -.4u
ES Most Nashors Map1 lose -.4u
ES Most Nashors Map2 lose -.4u
o4.5 Drakes Map1 win .95u
o4.5 Drakes Map2 lose 1.4u
ES Nashors +1.5 Series lose -.41u
ES Nashors +.5 Map1 lose -.4u
ES Nashors +.5 Map2 lose -.4u

total 3-14 -3.09u

them getting stomped was definitely in the realm of possibility but I strongly feel if those games were even remotely close the other correlated bets would have had a good shot and most of them were at big plus odds, the problem was these games were so out of hand that whenever FPX went for a late game drake or nashor it was uncontested because the ES guys were already dead - had it been an FPX dominated game but ES was hanging around they would have had a good shot at sniping a few of them

at least went 3-1 for +2.54 units in the conviction plays of first drake and o4.5 drakes

today I noticed live that the book had Suning's o/u at 4.5 and it's capped at 4... I mean there are elder dragons but those rare come into account so I blasted that one live as well as slammed DMO at o1.5 drakes when they had a commanding in game lead and already had one drake (finished with 4)

will be scanning drake props for a while and posting more - follow at your own risk
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-27-2020, 04:04 PM   #1711
JSkelts
grinder
 
JSkelts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Miming in the choir
Posts: 417
Re: Esport Betting?

I had eStar/FPX as a slightly FPX favored flip so I think it was 100% fine to take some eStar exposure based on objectives if they were a dog there. I havent looked at Dragon/Baron numbers much but its probably an exploitable market if anyone here is motivated enough to look into it.
JSkelts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2020, 12:29 PM   #1712
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,677
Re: Esport Betting?

thanks, that's very reassuring, let's just say my other props not doing well either
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:07 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online