One of the Alive matches was suspicious but not refunded during Proleague a while back the week everything was getting refunded

Would be sad if Life was throwing but that line move is brutal

Ive been busy with the WSOP, will be back in Aus in a few days and following the scene properly again, I wonder whether theres a TL thread yet... time to find out

I gave up on TL and trying to bring attention to sc2 matchfixing in general.

Speaking of matchfixing, there was a 3.5 -> 9.5 line move today @dota 2

I'm leaving to Valencia for DH, I'll try to read/post. It will be fun to bet on matches while I watch them live on the stage.

i believe i noticed this as well.

Was kind of weird that Trap ML closed @1.7 and yet map1 for life suddenly went to 1.7.

considering the map it's not too unexpected. A bid extrem i admit but the map is heavily zerg favoured.

Firing a half unit on Parting +116 for the sweat, just got back in time for the final, haven't watched the tourney and Classic's been crushing so I won't go any bigger, Classic seems to be in better form, but Parting does tend to close out these foreign tourneys even against Code S level opposition regularly so i'll take him at plus

Going to take this round of PL slowly at first as I haven't been following closely since the last round ended

So far I have

1u KT Rolster -118

I think Flash is marginally more likely to upset herO than Bbyong is to beat Zest, Life/Byul is a flip and Stats is a decent fav over Trust so I think -118 is reasonable. Ace match is close too

0.5u Zest -145

Think he matches up pretty well with Bbyong, not a super amazing spot but I like it

0.25u Stats -180

He's just better than Trust, although his recent PvP form isn't amazing he should still win about two thirds of the time give or take.

0.25u parlay Jinair Ace Match + sOs + Jjakji + Stats + Zest +832

Some of the other individual lines I wanted to hit but didn't quite, was tempted to put Trap, Dear and CJ Hero in too but decided against it. Gives me a few other sweats.

There are a bunch of lines I sort of like, but will only take if the line improves.

If I have to picke exact results i'll go with SKT 3-0, JinAir 3-2, Sbenu 3-1 and KT Rolster 3-1

Really tilting loss, Fantasy with a lead in every way 3base vs 2base decided to load 4 medivacs for a drop, lost a **** ton of units, and just died to a counter attack. Holy **** sometimes these players are doing the most ******ed things ever.



Was late to bet on Hyun, but even so, even money against a retired Taeja? I am not sure what happened and why on the earth Taeja was hyped after beating ret 2-1 and Morrow 2-0. Lol.



Some random ass parlay, taking a massive value from Root gaming, and perfectly predicting the IEM Ro8 Playoffs (Classic losing map1 and winning 3 in a row was a real sweat).

Last leg did lose, but there was enough time to hedge lock the 2 btc profit, and i did

Just realised that Terraform has a huge P winrate over a granted smallish sample, so made it a full unit on Zest and added a half unit on Blaze +107 vs Leenock (Blaze is Panic and Leenock's not in the best form)

Also no longer like my Jinair Ace map bet in the parlay so much as they may have to PvP unless Maru's in such good form he doesn't care and thinks he can beat Dear there anyway

I dont think JinAir goes to ace match like ever.

Sure, Trap's PvT is meh, but Journey is a complete trainwreck against protoss. I dont see Reality beating sOs either.

Plus Dear is still Dear, he will lose to Check like 3rd of a time anyway.

Check's record is pretty bad. Jinair should win the other three to win 3-1 but I can't help but feel that one of them may blow it. The matchups have fallen pretty favourably for Jinair but their decision to field their arguably eighth best player (their core 5, Terminator and probably Symbol are all ahead of Check) against Samsung's ace means one slip up and it goes to the ace match, where T is at a disadvantage to P. I mean i'm all for getting their less experienced guys booth time, but do it against Prime or in the last match of the round if you have nothing left to play for.

I wonder what price Jinair's B team would be against Prime... Pigbaby, Check, Terminator and Symbol would still probably be favs against Prime's A team right? I suppose it depends whether any of Prime's players are throwing matches that day, lol

Wouldnt mind hitting Trap if the price improves, we'll see I guess but it'll probably go the other way

Check record is pretty damn bad, yes. But since its ZvP i expect him to do some sort of an all-in and Dear to just roll over and die like he usually does against early pool builds.

for anyone interested the fantasy pro league closes in 11 hours:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/star...und-4-sign-ups

Made my team, may have botched it this round by not including Myungsik, but I plan to trade Sorry out for him assuming SOrry wins this week he'll be at a higher price. Depends if Sbenu field Myungsik next week as well I guess as they haven't played him much lately.

I actually shelled out for Maru this round, I expect Jinair to be in a few ace matches and with CJ Hero and Stats and Byul not playing quite as well as the last two rounds decided I wanted an ace anchor and there were a lot of pickable players worth 3 points. I've finished in the top 50 or so both seasons so far, hoping for top 10 this season but it'll require some rungood with Maru and Dear winning ace matches for me to have a chance

I ended up with Hurricane on my team for some reason but Samsung play prime next week and I needed someone cheap

I've ended up with Jjakji/Maru/Hurricane/Dear/Solar/Sorry/Jinair, I intend to trade out Sorry after week 1 and potentially Solar and Hurricane after week 2 at the latest (or even before if they're not picked against Prime), then have Flash/Marineking/Yoda on the anti-team, two out of form likely match fixers on bad teams + Flash being probably the worst of the 7 points plus players required for me to pick the other two - might be able to offload him after week 1 for someone who had a good first week but isn't as good if he loses to CJ Hero in week 1

I figure with Maru it's important to have him for the first two weeks if i'm shelling out for him given Jinair have two competitive matches and he could win an ace match for me; I think this round Dear is a great buy as there's a good chance he'll win at least one ace match in r4 of PL at some point and he should have a 50-60% winrate on top of that

Solar could be an amazing or terrible pick but he was cheap; the problem is getting a decent affordable Zerg like usual. I wanted Stats, i've had him all season in my FPL teams but can't justify the cost this round.

I made it to rank 23 last season with some lucky trades.

My team this season is: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/star...sion?page=2#36

What a nice day for Jinair

I mean did they even want to win?
Maru playing mech, seeding check instead of rogue??
jin air wtf

I assume they seeded check because they though he needs exp in the booth, and even if he loses they will still win 3-1.

Maru's TvT is slumping though, first he lost 3-1 to Dream (who got owned by Hack a couple days after), and then straight up got outplayed by Bravo.

Trap's PvT is horrible btw, what a sad showing

I did almost want to bet Bravo at that price in a bo1, but fading Maru is usually a bad idea

On the plus side it should mean we get Jinair's best lineup for the next few weeks especially if they lose next week

Added a half unit on Jjakji -136; didn't take -150 but think -136 is good enough narrowly to fire

Also looks like I got the Blaze line movement wrong, would add more @ this price but want to limit my exposure on everything atm til im back in the swing of things

Proud of myself not losing any money on any Jinair players the week they lose 0-3 lol, sOs leg of parlay cancelled and would have taken Trap at -150 but I think -180 was too steep and that worked out

I am not sure why you are taking Blaze when he looked horrible against Sleep, and no matter in what shape Leenock currently is, he should be way better.

I would not touch Jjakji either, after seeing his games against herO and Trust. The fact that he is offered for that price against Departure of all people is very telling.

Also, if anyone interested in taking TI5 futures for a sweat - there is value in 3 teams - Secret, EG, LGD

I didn't bet today either but my fantasy pro league team got ****ed over hard. ^^

I also like Blaze since leenock loses against retiered players right now but Terraform LE really sucks for P. I think I will wait if the line gets better i ll take it.

Am I misreading this or is Terraform great for P (granted over a not so huge sample)

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/Terraform

Panic/Blaze has always been hit or miss, Leenock's a better player but he's only won 2 of his last 10 series

Not sure I liked the bet that much when I made it at +107 (a lot of it is map based on the winrate for P in the MU in the link above, 63.2% winrate for P in the MU even over a smallish sample is huge)

Since June, Blaze is 4-3 in series vs Z and 2-3 in series vs Proleague caliber players, with wins over Hydra and Pet and losses to Hyun, Armani and Sleep.

Leenock is 3-5 in series vs P and 2-5 vs Proleague caliber players (Huk is good for a foreigner but is still a foreigner) with the wins against Ruin and First and the losses to Stork, Parting, Zoun, Alicia and Liquid Hero

On the numbers alone, it's a clear bet on Blaze, especially at the +128 available now, but i'm not confident enough to make it a full unit simply because it's a bet based solely on numbers, rather than numbers + having watched both player's recent matches as i've been out of it for a while.

When both the numbers and my intuition after having watched the matches agree it's a great spot, it almost always is, but when I only have one or the other it isn't always

I may also wind up firing on Sbenu if they get below -150, but I don't expect it to happen

Regarding JJakji; he did lose to Trust and Elroye (whoever that is) pretty badly; but he also has wins in the last few weeks against Zest, Bbyong, Trap and Creator so it's not like he's been out of form forever. Coda has a 53% winrate for T, so that helps a little as well although not a huge map imbalance or anything.

Departure has some REALLY bad recent form Terran as well which helps. He's 3-7 in his last 10 ZvT series, with wins over nobodies (Chopin, Kelazhur and Speed). Losses include Speed, Apocalypse, Center and Salvation, not exactly a who's who of Terran. His last win vs a proleague caliber player was against Gumiho on April 27.

Jjakji's TvZ has hardly been great either, but he did beat Departure the last time they met in March 2-1. Neither of them have been great in the matchup, but I think Departure is the bigger fade based on form.

If I had a bit more confidence i'd add the other half unit on both Jjakji and Blaze but i'll hold off for now.

Steam came on KT as expected which is nice.

Currently sitting on

0.25u parlay Zest/Stats/Jjakji (two legs graded as a push; sOs and Jinair Ace Match, not sure what current price is with that factored in)
1u KT -118
1u Zest -145
0.5u Blaze +107
0.5u Jjakji -136
0.25u Stats -180
0.06u parlay Zest/Stats/Life/Jjakji/Blaze/DRG/Curious +4400 longshot/sweat of all of todays games except herO/Flash

I did not look at the numbers which are surprising to me. Part of it is that the toss players were just stronger that played on it: http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/hots/...form/games/ZvP
On my own analysis i would say this is a good zerg map because there is a gold base and the 3rd for toss is very difficult to defend. Similar to Coda you can force the toss to come out if you position your army between the natural and the 3rd base. Because of that and the gold bases we have seen a lot of 2 base all ins on that map but by now i think the zergs expect it.
However Blaze has shown a lot of all ins in the past so he surely has the experience to do them right.

Now I a) feel silly for not making it a full unit once Blaze got to +130 and b) kinda want to add more on Zest on that map due to great P record on it + his great personal history vs Bbyong

Good start, 3/3 so far today granted two of which were only in a small parlay

Let's go Jjakji