Brutal day; didn't end up recording bets ITT for KT and CJ who both won (I was on both but small) and then added a huge fav late in TY and he managed to **** it all up and lose.
Also in a brutal twist of fate TY losing killed all 3 of my live correlated parlays on KT which sucked given he got out to -480 at one point before closing at -340ish against a guy who was on a 10 series losing streak and 2-20 in his last 22 games which obv -310 is fine against. Granted, bo1 that's a pretty brutal price to lay but I have no doubt TY wins at least 7/10 games against him even playing badly as he did. Managed to drop 4u today when I would have won something like 6-7u for the day if TY managed to win his game as the biggest favourite on his team.
Odds have changed, most have gotten worse but Mineski -0.5 is up to +124 and is a good bet. Odds on Tigers -1.5 are the same and I still think this is a good bet.
HGT map 1 is only +128 now
Speed Gaming map 1 vs TongFu is at +130
Speed Gaming -0.5 vs IM is +196
EHOME -0.5 is now -183
Feeling pretty good about getting these odds for these bets. Lots of risk, lots of reward today.
Cool feel free to post your picks, hope youve been tailing the winners
27-14 +7.81u overall
Rain -1.5 +108 is a win
28-14 +8.89u overall
Leenock +121 is beyond amazing for tomorrow line is down atm but hes def a fav over Super, hes in great ZvP form and just beat sOs and has some other nice recent zvp wins too. He was at about evens when the line went down; I had him at maybe -110 prior to the sos game, now I think hes more like -140 in the form hes in we're getting back to the leenock of old
Adding Leenock -165 vs Terminator and Super -150 vs Fantasy for winners and losers matches.
Like both matchups for the players. Cliffs - Leenocks ZvP is awesome atm and he's in great form in the MU, Terminator is improving but still the worst protoss on Jinair and Fantasy is a choke artist and think Super has slightly better PvT than terminator who beat him today.
Leenock is also a win vs Super, 1-0 +1.21u so far today
Analysis leans hero and terminator today vs taeja and curious but not quite enough to bet either taeja is tough to bet on or against and so is terminator due to their inconsistency
Would have gone 2-0 there but prob would have taken Hero over Terminator to lose that one. Just got home (made day 2 of a 1k at aussie mills) gonna cap the last couple games if theres value
Not an amazing spot but w/e last minute I think he's 50%ish to 2-0. Played it as well as his Ml small but lines are close to accurate so its just partial unit action bets
Sorry I only got that one up like 1 min before the game started. still, it wins, hope some of you got on it
31-14 +12.10u overall
1-0 +1.07u today
32-14 +13.17u overall
Hero's PvZ was just phenomenal game 2 was one of the best performances ive ever seen. No idea how Terminator beat Hero in a PvP going to have to watch that later for capping for next round.
Taeja/Curious line seemed sharp with Taeja at -2xx, Curious won, glad I stayed away there. Would have prob taken Hero over Terminator but no idea what line was. Would have got both Term and Hero in first two games but stayed away due to prices seeming sharpish.
Proleague teams out today, just waiting for the lines to look for the value. Stay tuned.
Byul vs sOs - Lean sOs, better overall player, both out of form in MU but sOs is the better player
Hero vs Rogue - After tonight I can't pick against Hero in a PvZ, but Rogue is a very good ZvPer who is live in a bo1. Lean Hero.
Cure vs Skyhigh - Both excellent TvTers, Cure a better overall player but theyre close in the MU. Flip. If I was forced to pick I take Cure but it's a flip.
Maru vs Bbyong - Lean Maru, better at the matchup.
Ace Match: Interesting spot; CJ haven't been picking Hero and he's questionable in PvP, but Bbyong may have trouble with both Maru and sOs if picked. It's a flip, but at evens I take Jinair because while Hero is favoured over Maru, i'd take sOs over Hero in current form, sOs and Bbyong is a flip but i'd lean sOs and I def take Maru over Bbyong of the likely combos. If Jinair pick rogue they're ******ed, and I doubt they play Cure after he lost the ace match last week. Also doubt CJ play anyone other than hero or bbyong in ace.
Overall: 2 lean Jinair, 1 lean CJ, 1 flip. Overall i'd say Jinair -135, expecting this to open Jinair -115 CJ -101 or thereabouts
If any of Maru, Hero and sOs are better than -125 we def take them; in some cases even higher. Would take Cure at -100 or Sky at +150 too prob
Yonghwa vs Solar - the idea of Yonghwa winning here would have been laughable 2 months ago but Solar is on a decline atm. Solar's faced the better competition and Yonghwa's form in the MU isn't amazing though. Lean Solar
Losira vs Armani - Losira has the better form in the MU and did win the last series they played. Armani can win a high variance ZvZ bo1, but Losira has to be the fav here. Lean Losira
Marineking vs Journey - Marineking sucks at TvT. Journey also sucks at TvT. Marineking is more experienced but has tilt issues and plays on emotion. He's the more talented player, but has choke issues as well. Flip. In theory, Journey is one of the only T players who Marineking is a favourite over. In practice it's probably a flip, but if theres any edge we have to go with Marineking, I think. I don't know and i'm not touching this game unless someone is +200 or w/e
Center vs Dear - Dear is the better player, and is playing well. it's that simple. Lean Dear.
Ace match: Probably Dear against an MVP sniper who has prepared a build to beat him; Marineking crushes TvP so it's going to be marineking even if he loses his TvT a lot. Samsung may counter with a Terran but they don't have any terrans good enough to play as their ace. Guilty did beat TY in a TvT but given his awful stats and history if MVP don't pick Marineking it'd be an awful pick. I expect to see Marineking vs Dear, Dear is a better player but Marineking CRUSHES TvP atm so it's a flip.
Overall: 1 Lean MVP, 2 Lean Samsung, 2 Flips
Close match. I expected to lean MVP until I did the analysis and I have a weird feeling Yonghwa is going to upset Solar and we're going to an ace match here. In theory it's Samsung -125 or something. The thought of betting on this Samsung team against anyone though, I mean if Dear has an off night it's GG, he's singlehandedly carrying this team skillwise and they've run above EV so far with game wins I think.
LOL PRIMEAMENTS. With that out of the way, obviously i'm picking KT to win here before even seeing the matchups. Hopefully the Prime steam is back for the fifth straight week despite their 0-4 start someone steams them hard every week.
Sleep vs Myungsik
Seems like a flip; neither is in much form; Myungsik likes weird cheese and will do a weird cheese build and either win or lose with it. Haven't seen sleep in too long to know where his game is at. Flip. Would take either at +130.
Flash vs Bboongbboong
Poor flash. Horrible losing streak vs zerg and he draws another. That said, Bboongbboong is WAY past his prime (seewhatididthere). Flash's recent TvZ has been embarrassing and it's hilarious he keeps drawing zerg opponents in proleague. I mean, Flash will be -200 and is way better than him as a player but the way he's played TvZ recently this is a flip. Calling it a flip, and will fade flash if I can get BB at +200ish, but at evens we have to take Flash even with his disgustingly awful TvZ. It won't be at evens though.
Zest vs Creator
Zest is the better player. Zest is the favourite. It's a bo1 PvP though, these matchups have fallen pretty well for Prime. Still, it's a clear lean Zest.
Stats vs Yoda - inconsistency all around with great wins and awful losses for both. Stats is the better player though, so we lean Stats, although anything can happen here and Yoda is very live. Lean Stats though sheer talent should let him win over half the time.
Ace match: We have to assume Zest has the role of KT Ace back with Flash out of form, TY resting and out of form and Stats splitting focus to prepare for individual leagues. Prime should play Yoda, as he's the best chance they have. It's lean Zest, but Yoda is live. They could pick Creator too if he beats Zest in the first game and looks good as it's unlikely KT will play a zerg ace.
Overall: 2 lean KT, 2 flips. Prime is surprisingly live here. That said, they're still -300 or thereabouts but I was expecting to cap it at more like -400 prior to seeing the matchups. If you change the matchups it probably would be. I'd say the average score here is about 3-2 KT, although they go 3-1 or 3-0 more often than Prime win the series.
SKTT1 deserve their comeuppance here. The Manchester United of SC2, this team have refused to release Parting to play in Proleague due to some dumb kepsa rule they can waive; directly hurting Startale-Yoe's chances. They buy whoever they want and have no heart and soul. SKTT1 are the scum of proleague, and I wish them nothing but defeat against every team.
Unfortunately, having all the money means you can buy whatever roster you want. They haven't won either of the last two proleague seasons though and hopefully, it stays that way. **** everything about SKTT1. They're good though.
Startale have a point to prove here and should look to build on their strong recent form including last week's impressive win over a full strength Jinair. Some of their players are surging and they have a chance to lock up a finals spot with a win here.
On to the analysis.
Dream vs Leenock
2 players on the rise; Dream's series vs Solar was amazing and Leenock has been crushing the best protoss in proleague showing shades of 2011/12 Leenock. If he's truly back Startale will be a force to be reckoned with.
It's hard to pick against either guy at the moment. Leenock's looked phenomenal, granted not really playing much of this matchup. His form in the MU is solid though. Dream's form is excellent and while he isn't on par with Leenock as a name he's making a run right now. He does have to split focus as he's preparing for TvP in individual leagues though. I can't call this; you can't pick against Leenock with his form but can't pick against Dream in a TvZ either. I want to pick Leenock, but Dream demolishing Solar is burned into my memory and Leenock can be a slow starter. Flip, I can't help but feel like Dream may beat him but objectively we can't pick either side.
Dark vs San
A surging in form Dark meets PvZ specialist San who was incredibly unlucky to lose two games he should have won to go down 1-2 to ex SKTT1er Soulkey in individual leagues this week. Dark is playing out of this world right now but San is a PvZ sniper and it's impossible to pick against him against any zerg in the world right now except for Life and maybe Leenock, ironically both of whom are his teammates. Close to a flip, but I have to say lean San. This is a spot to look for San to be a dog, because he will be a lot.
Classic vs Life
Life's lost a few ZvPs recently but theyre to 3 of the best Ps in the world atm. He's arguably the best Zerg in the world. Classic has great PvZ but hasnt played the MU much recently. So close to a flip but you can never pick against Life unless it's a top 3 in the world type guy and while Classic was that six months ago he isn't today. Could go either way but I lean Life. Three flips so far really, but if I have to pick...
Innovation vs Curious
Can't pick against Innovation here; when SKTT1 lost their core and ace they bought a new one and here he is. Curious did just beat Taeja today and looked fantastic in games 2 and 3 doing it. Have to lean Innovation though.
Ace: Innovation vs... Life i guess? Both are sick crushers. I hope we see this game. It could be anything though even Bomber vs soO or some players not even fielded both teams have depth. Startale will have someone prepared for Innovation. It'll probably be Life, but who knows. Close, probably lean Innovation but it's really a flip
Overall: Surprisingly we split 2-1-2 here. I'll be looking to take Startale as underdogs here. Gun to my head I probably pick SKTT1 at evens but I think Startale are fired up for this one and really wish i'd got on them to win r1 of PL at +724 which I nearly did. This will show what Startale are made of and if they win this match they WILL be contenders this season. So much comes down to whether Life and Leenock can build a solid zerg core for this team as the most zerg-heavy proleague team.
I expect this to go to ace match a large percentage of the time as all four games are flippy, with Innovation probably being the strongest lean but I pick Startale to 2-1 the other 3 games more often than SKT do. With everything on the line... who would you rather have than Life and/or Innovation playing as your ace?
Pick: Probably betting Startale at +125 or better which I think I might be able to get. Would bet SKT if they're dogs as well though I think.
