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Old 05-12-2015, 07:16 AM   #1376
sixfour
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Re: Esport Betting?

imagine if betting was a big thing when idra was active
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Old 05-12-2015, 01:16 PM   #1377
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
No idea for others esports but I believe there have been 7-8 suspected fixed matches in sc2 in the past year; a lot less if any before that

Pinnacle usually voids the bets on those matches though so it's not affecting our bottom line
Oh ok, they just void the bets, pretty easy i guess just a waste of time of everyones part. wow 7-8 seems decently high, im going to guess because the betting scene for sc2 has become more active?
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Old 05-12-2015, 02:43 PM   #1378
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Re: Esport Betting?

Limits have gone up recently yes which makes match fixing more attractive obviously

Fortunately the match fixers are greedy and dumb and usually get their bets voided
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Old 05-12-2015, 04:29 PM   #1379
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Re: Esport Betting?

twitch.tv/desrowfighting currenly live, i think they will be covering the Kespa's statement sometime during this episode
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Old 05-12-2015, 05:14 PM   #1380
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Re: Esport Betting?

Grinding scoop atm; can you post a link and a time when the eps over if you get a chance plz?

Also, binked CJ -213 yesterday but was only on it small

Emailed Pinnacle to ask if cancelling all team vs team bets is now standard in the event a single match is voided, they confirmed that will be enforced consistently going forward.
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Old 05-12-2015, 05:20 PM   #1381
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Grinding scoop atm; can you post a link and a time when the eps over if you get a chance plz?

Also, binked CJ -213 yesterday but was only on it small

Emailed Pinnacle to ask if cancelling all team vs team bets is now standard in the event a single match is voided, they confirmed that will be enforced consistently going forward.
Nah dont bother, it was really short and useless, they didnt even talk about the recent Prime voids, just briefly mentioned the Kespa statement.
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Old 05-12-2015, 08:36 PM   #1382
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Grinding scoop atm; can you post a link and a time when the eps over if you get a chance plz?

Also, binked CJ -213 yesterday but was only on it small

Emailed Pinnacle to ask if cancelling all team vs team bets is now standard in the event a single match is voided, they confirmed that will be enforced consistently going forward.
also binked CJ as well as CJ -1.5
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Old 05-14-2015, 09:27 AM   #1383
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Re: Esport Betting?

StarLeague ro8 is so stacked, starting with maru-herO right of the bat, could've easily been the finals.

Even with how good herO's form is, its hard to see maru losing bo5 TvP at this point, and then we will probably see Life-Maru in a the semi's.
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Old 05-16-2015, 06:36 PM   #1384
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Re: Esport Betting?

Firing Stardust -215 and ForGG -1.5 -115 for WCS tomorrow; Stardust's last loss to a nonkorean Zerg was in August of last year and I doubt Toodming is the guy to break that streak, and ForGG has good TvZ and should outclass Sen easily; I remember he 2-0'd him last season of WCS and ForGG's hellbat/marine timings should spell gg for Sen

Toodming's been getting rolled by nonkorean Protoss; -215 seems way too low for Stardust even if he's not in amazing form overall, i'd have figured he's more like -300 to -350 here. Sen should 2-0 55-60% of the time, and win more like 80-90% of the time, so happy with the -1.5 price; I think the ML is +EV too at -400ish but prefer to stay away from the huge fav and huge dog variance where an equally profitable bet is possible

Didn't have any plays on today's group
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Old 05-17-2015, 03:14 PM   #1385
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Re: Esport Betting?

Fired three Proleague spots this week

2.5u Bravo -140 vs Marineking
1u Byul -139 vs Dream
0.5u Yonghwa +138 vs Reality

No odds on the Prime match again
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Old 05-17-2015, 04:55 PM   #1386
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Re: Esport Betting?

Looks like both koreans are bad today.

I had Stardust ML and thought its a pretty ok spot. Didnt see the games though, guessing it was just a result of his bad recent form if anything.
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Old 05-17-2015, 10:35 PM   #1387
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Re: Esport Betting?

He played pretty bad. Looked like a mid level foreigner. A lot worse than Stardust from a year ago. He closed at -290 though so w/e

Watched ForGG lose the first game then turned it off in frustration; looks like he got two 2-1s today. Frustrating morning, hopefully we get it back on Bravo/Byul/Yonghwa tonight (also fired a partial unit bet on CJ; probably should have just left that one alone) and a small parlay for the sweat on Gumiho/Yonghwa/Dear/Bravo/herO/Byul
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Old 05-18-2015, 03:20 AM   #1388
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Re: Esport Betting?

I dont share your faith in Bravo to be honest, especially for 2.5 units.

Yes, MKP sucks and matchfixes, but he played better than i expected against Gumiho, and if there is any player he can potentially win against in the proleague, it will be someone like Bravo.
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Old 05-18-2015, 05:40 AM   #1389
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Re: Esport Betting?

No, it'd be someone on Prime for obvious reasons.

Bravo's TvT is by far his best MU historically; MKP's his worst. Since December last year, Bravo is 5-1 in TvT series; wins vs Jjakji, Dream, Flash, Bbyong and Spear and a loss to Sorry. 5 of those 6 players are proleague caliber and he's 4-1 there. Marineking did beat Bunny recently, but Bunny isn't a proleague player even if he's a good foreigner. In the same time period, Marineking is 9-11 in TvT series and 5-11 vs Proleague caliber terrans (i'm counting bunny but not counting turn as proleague caliber)

Plus, there's a non zero chance MKP will throw the match; although if he does there's also a nonzero chance the bet gets cancelled

Despire Bravo's lackluster overall results/form, his TvT form is solid, that's enough for me to fade Marineking.

I agree Marineking played better than expected against Gumiho but he did still lose and he had a reasonable lead in one of the three games that he threw away if memory serves

It'd never a lock in a bo1 but I don't think i'd bet Marineking until +200 here; if I had to guess i'd say the true line is something like -170 for Bravo; if they were to play a best of 7 and I had to pick an exact result with my life on the line i'd go with something like Bravo 4-2.

I'd probably have bet Bravo to -150ish (happy with the -140 I got) and Marineking at +200ish and pass anywhere in between (in reality I may not have bet Marineking at all as I don't plan to ever bet on suspected match fixers, although i'll still fade them when the spot is good but if I knew the match was fair then maybe)
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Old 05-18-2015, 05:55 AM   #1390
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Re: Esport Betting?

Interesting, you could be right here.

I might be just biased in a way against Bravo after seeing him lose vs herO after having a hidden 3rd base unscouted for the whole game.

Have Yonghwa and MMA for today, for +130 and +145
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Old 05-18-2015, 07:09 AM   #1391
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Re: Esport Betting?

Lol, is MarineKing throwing again? I cant believe someone can be so legit horrible. (its not that i had bet on him or anything, just bizzare to see)
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Old 05-18-2015, 08:18 AM   #1392
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Re: Esport Betting?

CJ pretty much dead unless Ragnarok somehow wins Soo
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Old 05-18-2015, 06:03 PM   #1393
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah unfortunate Byul lost; haven't seen the games yet. I take it Marineking was terrible again? Did the betting line support throwing or he just played like garbage?

It's baffling that MVP continue to field him given a) the scandal and b) even if he's innocent he doesn't deserve a spot in the lineup on merit - I mean, they have Gumiho, Losira, HerO, Panic and Yonghwa who all deserve a spot over him on form/skill, and i'd argue you could make a case for a couple of their other players as well (Seed, Departure, Salvation and Center are all worse than the first five listed; but i'm not sure Marineking deserves a spot over any of them atm)

Sbenu's line is getting tempting; I nearly never bet against Jinair but +291 is getting so tempting, Maru should crush Myungsik but Myungsik's in good form and can cheese out anyone, Rogue has better ZvZ than DRG but it's a high variance MU, MMA and Cure should be close to a flip as it depends which Cure and which MMA turns up, and sOs is a fav vs Bomber but not an overwhelming fav or anything.

Fired 0.68u to win 1u on MMA +145; Cure's not in the best form atm and even though his TvT is good, I see this as closer to a flip

That said MMA's form is all over the place, r4 in Code S to losing to qxc so who knows

I don't think i'll fire Sbenu straight up, but if they get to +350 I might have to even as a Jinair fan. I think Jinair are more like -250 if I had to guess this week; they should still win but I don't think it's going to be a 3-0 destruction or anything
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Old 05-19-2015, 07:14 AM   #1394
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Re: Esport Betting?

Nah i think betting line was fine @MKP but the game was hillarious.

It was like :

1) MKP getting better opener, faster expansion, and Bravo doing 0 dmg with his banshees

2) Both went mech, but Bravo just behind in everything, sitting in his base

3) MKP ahead like 40 supply, 170 vs 130, moves out

4) Just moves into the siege tank line of Bravo and loses the fight

5) Supplies now even, MKP decided to go BC's, but instead of waiting for them to come out, feeds his whole army to the sieged tanks AGAIN

6) MKP now behind 100 supply, Bravo just attack moves and wins the game

Basically the whole game Bravo didnt do anything, he was sitting on his base turtling and MKP just killed himself lol


Byul vs Dream - Both went greedy builds, but Dream's build was greedier, very fast 3rd CC + ahead in upgrades, just made a bunch of bio and pushed with good marine spreads and rolled Byul

Last edited by MantridNinja; 05-19-2015 at 07:23 AM.
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Old 05-19-2015, 07:23 PM   #1395
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Re: Esport Betting?

Nice bink on MMA +145; annoyed at myself I didn't trust my read and fire Sbenu +271 or +290 or w/e they were I thought it was a good spot and if i'm fading my favourite team with my inherent bias it has to be

This round could get interesting now with 5 teams in real contention with Sbenu 2-0 and with one win being vs a 'big four' team
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Old 05-19-2015, 11:30 PM   #1396
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Re: Esport Betting?

Firing MMA +116 to win 100 again today vs Sacsri; think this is roughly evens; Sacsri beat him last time they played, overall form similar, MMA has more experience and tends to play well in individual leagues in Korea. Would cap this one at about evens so taking the dog
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Old 05-20-2015, 09:45 PM   #1397
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Re: Esport Betting?

btw yoda vs myungsik wasn't cancelled, that bet got graded normally... only MKP and prime lines got cancelled I think
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Old 05-20-2015, 09:53 PM   #1398
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Re: Esport Betting?

Prime lines weren't offered on Pinnacle this week. As far as I know all bets this week were graded.

Yoda also had a match w Bunny with suspicious betting which is why he's on the list, for having two matches w suspicious betting

1/2 for bets on MMA this week; winning in Proleague and losing in GSL; given he was a slight dog in both I made a small profit there

Moving to next week of PL I assume there will be no Jinair vs Prime lines offered; Jinair should win 3-1 or 3-0 depending on the matchups and mostly on whether Creator gets a PvP or not.

For the other matches

Sbenu may be tempting if they're +250 or better vs KT depending on matches; they got the upset on Jinair this week and I was annoyed with myself for not taking the +291 on offer. I think they're 50-55% to make the playoffs this round now after upsetting Jinair last week, all it should take is one more win vs a big team and then beating MVP and Samsung which they should be able to do; and just MVP and Samsung may be enough, if they beat any of CJ, KT and SKT they should get there. Could also be value on KT if it opens closer to even money after Sbenu's strong start.

If I had to guess i'd say it opens KT -225 Sbenu +195 or thereabouts but depends on matchups.

CJ Entus may be value vs MVP if it's in the -200 range after their loss last week; also depends on if MVP insist on fielding subpar lineups despite having 5 clearly proleague caliber players now. If I have to guess we'll get CJ -240 MVP +200 or so, but CJ could be bigger favs if MVP field a ****ty lineup

SKT vs Samsung depends on matchups and lines; I assume it'll be around -300/+250 but which side the value is on depends on who draws who and on what map.
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Old 05-21-2015, 01:20 AM   #1399
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Re: Esport Betting?

they need these S2SL lines up asap. herO/Dream/Maru/Life and no lines? Seriously? lol
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Old 05-21-2015, 05:10 AM   #1400
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Re: Esport Betting?

Decided to hit Maru -120 vs CJ Hero for 100; both are in INSANE form in the MU but the way Maru beat Myungsik after being behind in Proleague this week makes me feel like he just won't lose a bo5 TvP this week; I was convinced Myungsik had him beaten and he just won anyway. Not a super amazing spot I think -120 is about the true line but should be a good sweat.

Such a stacked ro8 arguably with 5-6 of the top 8 players in the world and all 8 players being in the top 20 players in the world. I feel like Maru vs Hero is a grand final worthy match, and Dream vs Life was the semi final last season.

Picking Maru and Life today but any of the eight remaining can win it

Dream +1.5 line is tempting given his recent 5-6 record vs Life at -139 but I kinda want to cheer for Life so probably won't. Certainly not taking Life -200 though, I do think he's a fav but probably closer to -170 or so which is around where the Dream line is on the other side.
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