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Old 01-07-2015, 08:30 AM   #101
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Re: Esport Betting?

Rogue -1.5 wins, 1-1 -0.09u for the day

Rogue hasn't looked spectacular today but will take him if he's a dog to fantasy probably even though he lost the first time

Steam on Fantasy is crazy atm if Rogue gets high enough might take him last second
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:38 AM   #102
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ok, Rogue +121 it is vs Fantasy for 2nd series.. Hopefully i'm not retarded but I liked him before the first series and I doubt he turns in another bad performance
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Old 01-07-2015, 08:52 AM   #103
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ok lesson learned even if Rogue rallies to win this we're not betting on Zerg against Terran this season.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:09 AM   #104
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Re: Esport Betting?

Finally some nice harass on that second map.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:12 AM   #105
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah that looked a lot more like what I expected from Rogue today. If he advances here he kinda doesn't deserve it but we're very live to win for the day.
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Old 01-07-2015, 09:29 AM   #106
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Re: Esport Betting?

Those last two games were a lot closer to Rogue playing his best and what I expected the first series to look like.

23-10 +10.44u

2-1 +1.12u for the day (Rogue loses -134 average, Rogue -1.5 wins +125, Rogue wins +121)

25-11 +11.56u overall

In reality I was only about even for the day since my first bet was the biggest though sadly. On the plus side I crushed yesterday hard due to multi unit bets.

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Old 01-07-2015, 10:07 PM   #107
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Re: Esport Betting?

Was told by a DOTA2 capping friend Virtus Pro +108 vs Hellraisers is a bet and they should be small favs. I'm tailing it myself. Not counting towards my record either way since it's not my capping/wrong game just passing along what I heard
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Old 01-07-2015, 10:44 PM   #108
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Re: Esport Betting?

Down 2 units right now but I'm going to try to dig myself out of the hole. Tailing my bets is not recommended.

Power Rangers vs Na'Vi
PR +1.5 -157 2 units

Odds seem really skewed for some reason. Na'Vi haven't been looking very good recently, while PR went 16/9 last month. Na'Vi uses a 4 protect 1 strategy which PR will hopefully exploit by picking ganking supports. Na'Vi have only won 4 of their last 10 matches, and have only showed strength against worse teams. Power Rangers have been looking pretty good lately compared to Na'Vi. They've won 6 of their last 10 games, which includes a 2:0 against HR, 1:0 against Na'Vi, and 1:0 against Lajons. Na'Vi seems to be a team that has a lot of followers who will favor them in any match up, and odds are almost always decent to bet against them.

HellRaisers vs Virtus Pro
HR ML -131 1.7 units

These teams haven't played any games in the last 2 weeks, so it's hard to tell how well each team will perform. Both teams have been practicing for this tournament so we'll have to see how each of them do. Virtus pro has the potential to win this BO3, but they haven't been playing very good lately. They've lost their last 5 games and haven't been able to return to their dominant form they had in October and November. I won't be betting on VP until they prove they can beat teams of their own tier again. HellRaisers have had an incredible performance in the last 2 months. They went 14/8/2 in November, and 23/0/7 in December. Recently they have been beating top tier teams like VP.P, PR, and 4Anchors. Their lineup also seems a lot more stable than VP who pull off random upsets against top tier teams, then lose to much worse teams.


I'm really considering focusing 100% on SC2 since there are a lot of little advantages to get by analyzing race matchups on certain maps. For Dota 2 it's hard to see skewed odds since most of it comes down to line-ups, drafting, and recent games. I'll also bet on LCS when it comes, and any CS:GO majors. Hopefully these matches go well though because I enjoy watching Dota 2.
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:05 PM   #109
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Http View Post
Down 2 units right now
Interesting you're on the other side of VP/HR to my friend whose reads I generally tail, gl

When you say you're betting 1 unit I assume u mean risking 1 unit if you're down 2u so far since your first 2 bets were favs? So betting 2u at -157 means you're risking 2 to win 1.x or w/e?
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Old 01-07-2015, 11:14 PM   #110
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
When you say you're betting 1 unit I assume u mean risking 1 unit if you're down 2u so far since your first 2 bets were favs? So betting 2u at -157 means you're risking 2 to win 1.x or w/e?
Yeah. I'm sort of going huge on the units right now since I only have $50CAD on my Pinnacle account. Min bet is about $1.53CAD and my units are a dollar, so I've got to bet 1.6 to have the bet be allowed.

Also, CS:GO matches hype.

dAT vs HR
dAT +1.5 -110 2 units

dAT team is relatively unknown, but they've shown their potential to bet pro organizations. They are a bit weird as they sometimes lose to teams like myXMG and CPHW, yet can beat Epsilon and ESC in best of 3's. They have a good chance to win at least a map of this series because they can pick one of their best maps to play. HellRaisers will have to guess which map to veto against them, since they've only played 3 matches in the last month, and nobody knows what they specialize at.

HellRaisers are a lot better known team in the CS:GO community since they've been around a lot longer, and play at a high level. They have a good record overall, and should be a slight favorite to win this BO3. I do think they are likely going to drop a game since dAT will be able to pick their best map, or win a knife round on a sided map.
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Old 01-08-2015, 01:42 PM   #111
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Re: Esport Betting?

PR played really well and beat Na'Vi with ease game 1. So that's at least 1/3 bets won for today. Odds for HR have gone to -101 so I'm guessing I didn't make the best decision on this one. dAT +1.5 went down to -126 so I'm happy with placing that bet. I'm mostly just hoping to see myself place bets on teams before their odds go down. Winning or losing isn't a huge deal right now, as I just want to get sharper at placing bets.

Also, I have a small question. Do most people use base amount bets? I like using risk amounts but I can convert the numbers if everyone else uses base amount.

And for anyone who bets on more sports, what is a +1 and +1.5 handicap?
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Old 01-08-2015, 04:06 PM   #112
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Re: Esport Betting?

Power Rangers vs Alliance BO3
PR +118 1.6 units

Game added late so no analysis. Basically just betting on this because the odds are good for PR.
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Old 01-08-2015, 11:53 PM   #113
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Re: Esport Betting?

Today went well for betting. Was dissapointed in my bet on VP vs HR after the odds changed so much, but they ended up winning 2-0 which was nice. I also messed up the format of HR vs dAT as it was a BO5 instead of a BO3, but they managed to go 2-3 anyways.

Todays total:
4-0 +6.28u

Overall:
4-2 +4.28u


Only have 2 bets for tomorrow as of right now.

Empire -137 2 units
They've faced each other 3 times in the last month and Empire won all 3. Both teams are pretty strong but VP.P are only 2-2 so far this month, compared to Empires 17-2 record last month. Odds for empire are getting worse so it's not great to keep betting on them.

Team Tinker +146 1.5u
Na'Vi always seem overvalued for some reason so I'm betting Tinker. It's going to be a close enough game that these are pretty good odds.
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Old 01-09-2015, 01:15 AM   #114
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Re: Esport Betting?

Don't love any of the lines today but will livebet Marineking vs San or San vs Soulkey if the odds are where I expect them to be in winners/losers/final if the games happen
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Old 01-09-2015, 07:44 AM   #115
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Re: Esport Betting?

Just got home

San +105 vs Soulkey

Great spot, San should be the favourite. Best MU, Soulkey's struggled vs P lately and Soulkey badly out of form. Line's only here because of Soulkey's historic skill not recent form
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Old 01-09-2015, 09:01 AM   #116
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Re: Esport Betting?

Clearly on the right side of that but sigh, San loses.
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Old 01-09-2015, 09:09 AM   #117
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Re: Esport Betting?

25-12 +10.56u overall, down 1u for the day not taking any other spots. I do have a sweat on Marineking here but I don't think it's a +EV bet so not gonna post it officially
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Old 01-09-2015, 01:59 PM   #118
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Re: Esport Betting?

Jinair -165 vs Startale; not the worst possible matchups for Startale but they're still probably +200 to beat Jinair simply because San has a bad matchup in Cure and who knows what shape Alive is in.

If the Prime steam hits for the third week in a row and we get SKT at -300 or better i'll take that too. Currently -400 for SKT, but so were CJ last week and they came in to -228 and Prime got steamed against Startale too.
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Old 01-09-2015, 07:46 PM   #119
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Re: Esport Betting?

Went -0.04u today, so I won't bother adding it to my total.

Tons of Dota 2 in the next 2 days. LGD vs HGT is the only BO5 out of all the games, the other ~20 are all best of 2's.

G-Guard vs Immortal Magneto
G-Guard -0.5 +193 1.2 units

Mineski vs Mith.Trust
Mineski -0.5 +163 1.2 units

HGT vs LGD (BO5)
HGT +1.5 +106 1.5 units

Not many bets because I don't like the odds for most games. Going to be betting on Lounge for this BO2 part of the tournament but I won't be counting it to my total.
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Old 01-10-2015, 01:56 AM   #120
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Re: Esport Betting?

Cure -130 vs San

and why wouldnt you add it to your record next time you update, win or lose a results a result

Line movement utterly baffling as usual; Money comes on Jinair to win, but all four Startale players (their opponents). I have no words.
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Old 01-10-2015, 01:58 AM   #121
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Re: Esport Betting?

Rain -1.5 +108 vs Panic

Again baffling line move here; Rain opened -399 and -1.5 opened at about +100 which makes sense if we have Panic's chances in each individual game at about 25% (seems about right)

Rain is now -601, but Rain -1.5 is +108... wat?
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Old 01-10-2015, 10:40 AM   #122
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Re: Esport Betting?

Leenock +121 vs Super. Think he's -105ish.

I think i'll get Terminator as a dog against choke artist Fantasy as well. Terminator has so much potential and constantly lets me down but recently he's been in form. Alternatively if Fantasy becomes a huge dog I may take him especially in game 1.

So far this week we have Jinair -165, Rain -1.5 +108, Leenock +121 vs Super and Cure -130 vs San.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 01-10-2015 at 10:45 AM.
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Old 01-11-2015, 11:30 PM   #123
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Re: Esport Betting?

SKT -306 vs Prime

I think this is closer to -400 than -300 where it opened, similar logic to CJ vs Prime last week. If it gets in to -228 like CJ did i'll dump piles on but as it stands its good enough to bet. No way Prime is more than ~20% to win here. One game is a flip, two are heavily favoured for SKT and one is moderately favoured for SKT, then the ace match will be moderately favoured for SKT as well.

I expect a 3-1 SKT on average, Yoda will beat Soo just under half the time and all of the other SKT players are 60-80% to win their game. I'd say the next most likely outcomes are SKT 3-0, then SKT 3-2, then Prime 3-2. If Prime win 3-1 or 3-0 then.. lol

Picking a 3-1 or 3-2 for Jin Air in the other game; If I have to pick an exact result i'll say it's 1-1 after two games, then Jin Air win 2 of the final 3 on average to either win 3-1 or 3-2.
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Old 01-13-2015, 03:35 AM   #124
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Re: Esport Betting?

25-12 +10.56u

Jinair -165 is a loss
Cure -130 is a win
SKT -306 is a win

2-1 +0.35u yesterday

Pending: Leenock +121 vs Super, Rain -1.5 +108 vs Panic

27-13 +10.91u overall
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Old 01-13-2015, 03:45 AM   #125
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Re: Esport Betting?

I liked MVP at +229 but currently like CJ at -188 for that game; cap it at -200ish for CJ

KT should win but -235 is about accurate; fortunately I got some correlated parlays on for that game but theyre not available anymore.

No picks for tonight none of the spots good enough to post
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