Maybe some pro sportsbettor noticed lines were off last minute? Steam to -689, then back to -288. Maybe reduced limits, matchfixers saw a chance to make their bets less suspicious once limits got reduced and minimise chance it gets cancelled? Latter seems more likely
1) some matchfixing is going on
2) it usually involves players in the slump/overall weak players without much of a chance of making big $ in a legit way, or players who are likely to lose the match anyway.
3) after having some bets voided matchfixers changing (or changed already) their approach/betting patterns
I think there is someone out there that organizes those match fixes and then sells the information to a group of people.
Sevaral points that support this theory.
1. the offer SwoopAE got per PM
2. If it was only one person doing those bets it would be very obvious. Pinnacle would just suspend that account.
3. It explains why the odds are sometimes so cleary match fixed. One single person would never bet so much on one line that it would become that obvious. If you however have paid for information you will use that no matter what. Maybe they get a refund of the costs for the information if the bets gets voided.
The match fix organizer offers players from teames who probably don't pay any salaries to their players like MVP, Prime and StarTale-yoe money to throw their matches.
I agree that Innovation doesn't fit that criteria. He has won so much price money, was probably payed well by Acer in the past and is probably right now earning a lot from SKT1 aswell. I doubt he is involved in it. There are still some other possible explanations for the strange odds on that one map against super. I also don't remember another incident involving him since then.
Refunded due to fraud at pinny. Annoying since i caught the byul opener but good call. Next step would be a public statement i kinda feel freerolled on this one as i doubt cancelled if mkp wins
It's completely unacceptable that they decide what to do after the match.
Byul Terror and Yoda Bunny are the clear examples. Neither of them got refunded because it didn't hurt them.
A lot of people bet on Yoda to normalise the lines. The closing line was somewhere at 2.3 while it was over 3 for a while. Still a ridiculous line but normalized enough for pinnacle to make money from fees.
Well in the Byul Terror match the money was on terror so i am sure they made a lot of cash there.
I get the feeling that they are only refunding if it would cost them money otherwise. They could have clearly voided the match before the start.
One thing to think about - it feels to me that Byul is most likely involved in some sort of way. In both "weird" matches he decided to go for these aggro cheesy build, almost like he knew that his opponents will "fail" to defend.
I assume that if it was only MKP involved we would've seen a normal game from Byul. It could be just some sort of crazy variance, but its just very weird when a way better player cheeses 2 inferior players in these shady matches.
I think it is rather unlikely that byul is involved.
I think in his ZvZ he went for a 9 pool. That's not too uncommon. Also there were only strange betting patterns in the lines, i doubt any of the players were involved. If they bought one of the players than terror would have been the one that would have won the game.
I don't know how his cheese at expedition lost would work out. But if that is a build that he has practiced and that works well i don't see why not. Marinking is certainly the player who likes to play greedy early on.
Still think its unlikely that he goes 9 pool against one of the worst players in the league, instead of playing super safe and securing the win from there.
Same with his MKP game, the build is just way too weird and risky to be totally legit imo.
In the vacuum, nothing super odd about his choices, but 2 games in a row with both games having shady line moves - something looks off to me.
It can be just some unlucky coincidence like you say, guess we just need to wait and see. But if more shady games will include a favorite going for the uncharacterstic cheese - it should push our opinion towards including both players in the matchfixing, not just the loser.
no i am not saying it is coincidence. i don't see any indication at all.
Just from a gameplay plan i don't think it is weird. Putting pressure on inexperienced players works really well. The only thing byul would have been in a bad position is a 12 pool which nobody does. Against a 15 pool 14 hatch you can still do some damage. It isn't even cheese. You see it a lot because so many people like to hatch first.
The cheese game against marinking didn't seem like a bad build either. Mk likes to play greedy. We see rushs in pro league. Creater lost 2 times this year agianst an early pool with nexus first (shine and losira).
If you don't look at the matches. If i want to fix a match I pay one player to lose on purpose. I won't risk to involve other players. I also don't want to pay more players if i don't need to. Why would anyone pay byul to win?
I don't see how byul is suspicious.
I can somewhat understand your position about 9pooling Terror, even though it seems still like an approach that cuts your winrate for no good reason. Terror's macro and overall skill is so abysmal that i cant see a 9pool is anything but a variance increaser. Whatever.
But trying to rationalize that there is nothing weird about Byul proxy hatch'ing MKP with spines behind rocks - cmon now.
I may have a case of selected memory, but as far as i can remember any "normal" (meaning no bull**** line moves) Byul's games always look pretty standard. Ignoring the fact that every time when line goes crazy results in him cheesing is kinda foolish.
(Btw I dont have 100% confidence in this, more like 60-70%). Also degrees of his involvement could be very different, he might've just been tipped off that MKP will use 3 CC build without any scouting or something along those lines.
By the way, MKP just posted something in korean in his facebook. Waiting for a proper translation now.
Last edited by MantridNinja; 03-24-2015 at 07:12 PM.
It's possible that Byul is involved somehow but I don't see why he would have to be yes his build orders are weird but it's the losing player that suspicion should fall on by default when a match is fixed because why involve more than the minimum number of people, it's easy to try to lose, why would you 'choreograph' an entire match for no reason as a match fixer when you could just get one guy to take a dive, he plays poorly, then loses to whatever the build the guy trying to win does be it cheese or macro
I don't want to directly accuse players because we may get one or two innocent players caught up in the match fixers efforts to cover their tracks but it's clear that at least SOME match fixing is going on right now, and it is clear which players are under suspicion due to Pinnacle cancelling their matches
I sent Pinnacle an email telling them I felt freerolled by this one and hope that they cancel the wagers prior to the matches in future if they're going to
