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Old 01-05-2015, 04:53 AM   #76
ExaMeter
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Re: Esport Betting?

if you werent crushing it for a long time now id say that these line moves were a pretty big indicator that something fishy was going on.
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Old 01-05-2015, 06:29 AM   #77
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Re: Esport Betting?

Uh huh. But I continue to win. Steam came in late on Myungsik to make Skyhigh a dog. Skyhigh crushed him anyway.

CJ's beyond a lock here that was prime's best chance to win a map and they're down 0-1 now, CJ are probably -1200 now after going up 1-0 yet prime got steamed from -400 to -228 (I got some on at -25x then more at -22x and was going to fade the steam all the way in) then back out to -270 by close

At the end of the day the answer is the casual fan money can move the lines due to low limits and not many pros betting on SC2. I'd venture i'm probably in the top 10 biggest esports bettors on pinny @ 100 per unit, although theres a massive whale who always blind bets on zerg players who can pound lines in by 50 pts or w/e when limits are bigger out there, I love the days when he's around

Good start for the day, I can't stress enough about how much I love my bets this week. I actually think there's an 80% chance I show profit over the next 48hrs
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Old 01-05-2015, 06:51 AM   #78
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Re: Esport Betting?

2-0 now for CJ (matches are bo5), and Prime is playing Terror next who is the worst player in Proleague. Should be 3-0 for the team that moved from -400 to -228 lol

I mean Jin Air opened at -185 and that line was just wrong too, current line of -255 is closer, i'd say it should be more like -300 probably but I think it'll close around -260ish. Some lines are just wrong. Others open accurately then get steamed absurdly in the wrong direction creating value.
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Old 01-05-2015, 06:53 AM   #79
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Re: Esport Betting?

Adding Stats -101 vs soO. Not as amazing a spot as i'd only cap Stats at -110 but whatever. Have actually only gone a partial unit on this one in reality.
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Old 01-05-2015, 07:00 AM   #80
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Re: Esport Betting?

Oh wow, Byul actually lost to Terror. I mean, lolvariance, and CJ should still win up 2-1 but thats just silly
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Old 01-05-2015, 07:20 AM   #81
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Re: Esport Betting?

Big sweat, 2-2. but we're still favourites. Won't quite cry rigged if they lose, but it would really suck. They'd better pick herO as their ace.

edit: sigh, hedged a little of it off at +153 for a slight loss since CJ didn't pick hero, still on cj though and byul's still a small fav here prob

that said coach park is a retard for picking byul and he is the reason cj entus will never win a title with his leadership

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Old 01-05-2015, 07:41 AM   #82
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well, CJ still win. I mean, that was a sweat though. Glad I only hedged like 0.3u off of my 2u and change on CJ.

Unfortunately Terror flukily beat Byul in his first televised win ever in proleague so we're 2-1 -0.34u so far today but at least my biggest bet of the day in CJ won.

On Stats and Innovation for the second game, and don't really like either team since it's a flip. This one is the worst betting match of the week, lines seem sharp for the most part, Inno and Stats are both marginal spots.
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Old 01-05-2015, 09:55 AM   #83
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

15-8 +5.79u overall
4-1 +1.66u today (lol terror won to deny us a perfect day). CJ, Skyhigh, Stats and Innovation are wins, Byul is a loss.

19-9 +7.45u overall

Pending for tomorrow we have Cure -130, Life -101, Jin Air -185 and Startale -125. Might end up fading steam and bet sOs, Trap and Leenock too if money keeps coming against them as their opening lines were sharp imo

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Old 01-05-2015, 10:46 PM   #84
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Re: Esport Betting?

Decided to add Leenock -161 for today. Still undecided on sOs and Trap. Feels good to have smashed the Jinair opener at -185 and see it move all the way out to -274 now (I think it's getting close to the true price now)
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Old 01-06-2015, 05:18 AM   #85
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Re: Esport Betting?

Startale in to -117 if anyone wants to tail. I liked -125, it got out to -148ish and it's come back in. Got enough on it at -125 though so not going to add more.

Doubling down on Leenock at -146 to bring my average price to -154

Jin Air out to -265 and Cure out to -169 though so those bets look good.
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:14 AM   #86
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Re: Esport Betting?

I'm a casual SPL watcher and recreational sports bettor and I'm loving the thread.
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Old 01-06-2015, 07:36 AM   #87
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Re: Esport Betting?

Glad i'm not just talking to myself.

Startale win 3-1, Leenock wins, Life loses

2-1 +0.99u so far today (in reality up more as biggest bets were ST, Leenock, Life in that order)

Moving on to Jinair now, I actually don't love the Maru line much with Marineking's history as his mentor despite Maru's better TvT etc, but Jinair are def favoured in all 4 games.

We have Jinair -185 and Cure -130 here; current lines are -283 and -171 so value on both is gone but I hope some of you got on board. May end up betting sos or trap if lines improve but happy w my multiunit plays on the two I have. I'm expecting a Jinair 3-1 here with one upset (no idea which game it'll be)

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Old 01-06-2015, 07:57 AM   #88
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Re: Esport Betting?

Interesting, if anyone missed it Jinair coach said Rogue will be their ace player if it goes to ace match. No idea if he's levelling the MVP coach or serious but my gut read is he's serious.

I expect Jinair to win 3-0 or 3-1 usually though.
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Old 01-06-2015, 08:57 AM   #89
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Re: Esport Betting?

and Jinair win 3-0. Pretty good weekend, went 8-2 over past 48h. Did think the lines were awesome this week.

Code S starts tomorrow; not sure if I should keep records separately for non proleague sc2 games, I guess not.
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Old 01-06-2015, 08:59 AM   #90
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

19-9 +7.45u overall
4-1 +2.99u today (Jin Air, Cure, Startale, Leenock win, Life loses)

23-10 +10.44u overall

Went 8-2 over past 48h, I did think this week's proleague games had spectacular value and they did.

Code S this week as well. Lines not up yet but should be soon.

edit: lines are up, but nothing looks amazing. There are a couple spots I like on gut read but data doesn't back it up; I like having both before firing

Betting the winners/losers/final match after first round is always amazing value though so stay tuned in real time if you want to tail

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Old 01-07-2015, 02:07 AM   #91
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Re: Esport Betting?

Both lines moving a bit, might be value in a few hours for today's Code S lines.
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Old 01-07-2015, 03:28 AM   #92
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Re: Esport Betting?

Going to take Rogue -143 today.

I also like Rogue -1.5 +201 and Rogue wins map 1 -110 but going to stick to the single play for the thread (put a smaller amount on the other two in reality.

I'm not sure if the money will keep coming on Fantasy; if it does i'll add more on Rogue for a better price.

Don't like either side of MC/Penguin. I do like rogue to win winners match probably though depending on price. Loser's match will depend on how good Penguin looks either in victory over MC or defeat
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Old 01-07-2015, 04:10 AM   #93
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Re: Esport Betting?

Rogue's -129 now. Doubling down on him and adding more than my original bet size, definitely love the spot now. -143 was marginal since I cap it at -145 to -150. -129 is great.

Moves average price I got to Rogue -134 (-129 is available now, and I can happily recommend it to anyone who wants to tail you'll be getting a better average price than me)

The steam has been coming on Fantasy so price could get better, but if it does i'm just going to keep adding units. I think Rogue is about -145 to -150 here even with Terran in a decent place in the meta, Fantasy has a history of choking in big important matches and Rogue has a better team to train with (he'll have been training with Maru and Cure for this match). Fantasy does have True as a training partner who used to be Rogue's teammate, but Rogue's game has evolved a lot since and True has gotten worse

Map pool should be balanced on average since from memory both players will veto the two worst maps for their race and the remaining three should be close to balanced, or it's one random map and both players pick one each in which case it's also balanced

Too many unknowns for me to handicap MC/Penguin accurately so i'm going to leave that game alone.

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Old 01-07-2015, 04:27 AM   #94
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ok this is scaring me a bit, Rogue -122 now, steamed all the way in from -150

I mean, CJ got steamed in from -400 to -228 and still won, and steam is consistently wrong but I guess i'm done adding on Rogue since I have as much as I want on him... it's a good spot though I think.

edit: back to -127 now

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Old 01-07-2015, 06:16 AM   #95
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Re: Esport Betting?

Thought Rogue would close -150. He's closing at -116. GL us; might be value on Rogue against MC if he wins this and on Fantasy against Penguin if he doesnt totally suck here

Never underestimate the 'popular from SC1 player' steam I guess.
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Old 01-07-2015, 06:37 AM   #96
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Re: Esport Betting?

0-1 bo3 start, not sure what Rogue did at the end with his micro but it wasn't good. Hopefully he can rally. Second map is good for zerg.
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Old 01-07-2015, 06:56 AM   #97
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well, can't win them all. 0-1 -1.34u for the day so far.

Time to check out the winners/losers match lines. Thinking Rogue and whoever the underdog of MC/Fantasy is

edit: no value anywhere

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Old 01-07-2015, 07:02 AM   #98
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Re: Esport Betting?

Tailed you and was watching the two maps. rogue just didn't play good I think. He was in the defensive most of the time and Mutas did close to no eco damage on m2. Have to say though that fantasys drops and marinesplits were great.
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Old 01-07-2015, 07:43 AM   #99
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Re: Esport Betting?

Fantasy played well and Rogue played badly pretty much sums it up. Especially in Game 1, Rogue made a lot of micro mistakes he usually doesn't. Think the bet was fine w info we had at the time especially at closing line. Hope you've been tailing some winners and didn't just start today

Going to take Rogue -1.5 +125 vs Penguin as well; not an amazing spot but Penguin looked pretty lost against MC; spot is marginal though with his form in first game.

Had MC in Game 2 and 3 vs Fantasy which he split 1/1 in reality but both were degen action bets hence not posting. Should have trusted my read it was a legit 50/50 and taken MC before the series at +115 but thought it was too marginal.

Impressed by MC's performance today. Rogue vs Fantasy rematch will be interesting to see where line opens assuming Rogue wins against Penguin.

Just to clarify; adding a second bet for today but its marginal

Rogue -1.5 +125 vs Penguin

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Old 01-07-2015, 08:24 AM   #100
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah been following your picks except for the first few, so still up. Appreciate your posting. Mostly following the big EU/NA tournaments but rarely betting because the koreans are dominating there anyway and I don't know enough about the korean players.
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