I meant which form tends to be better for exploiting. I know they can all be fine, I was just wondering if people noticed tendencies like the spreads being off more often than the matches, or if they found it more profitable betting on individual maps instead of the whole match, etc.

Or do you just cap each one separately and pick the best?

Took Dark @ 1.98 vs. Taeja

Peculiar steam on Taeja, took him +165 and he is -114 now.

Took Trap map 1 over Flash and straight up, will take Trap ML too when the line is back up probably and also took Rain -1.5 (hes not in form but Fantasy is the worst player in the tournament) and Bbyong over Solar (Solar did beat Dream's good TvZ but I think Bbyong's mech style is underrated and he has a good record vs Solar and solid form)

Also took Maru +951 and Cure +2517 for 0.2u each but props don't count ITT. Cure is probably my favourite prop, he has an ok record vs CJ Hero then has a reasonable draw, Bbyong's TvT isnt as good as Cure's, Cure's TvZ is solid if it's Solar, then Life or Inno, then final. I think he's more like +2000 to win the tourney than +2517

Zest opener was

Pending official plays:

Trap Map 1 +103
Trap -129
Rain -1.5 +103
Bbyong -113

Proleague lines should be out today, got my eye on a few potential opener spots, hopefully theres value somewhere

Are you kidding me? My bets so far look very similar: I took them yesterday, and the trap winner a few days ago.
Trap, Rain, Bbyong and Winner Trap @ 15.280

I'm happy to hear that too. I think we've got good spots. I'm on Cure and Maru to win at +951 and +2517 but will take Trap too if he gets to +1500

Life and Inno are way too short given they face each other in r1 and one of them is out and theyre the fav and 2nd fav to win it all

I've done my capping for Proleague but not gonna make my lines public til i've hit what I want @ openers. Lines out tonight according to Pinny support

There are three matches I think i'll like an opener for a team on if they open where I think they will and 6-7 individual matches where the line could potentially open in a really profitable spot - all depends on where openers are of course.

Was disappointed the KT and JinAir MLs weren't better at to some extent CJ too.

Liked a bunch of spots anyway

Pending official plays:

Trap Map 1 +103
Trap -129
Rain -1.5 +103
Bbyong -113

Added

Rain -223 vs Fantasy (decided to take the ML as well)
Yonghwa +150 vs Dear (think its close to a flip)
Losira +150 vs Solar (flip again and Losira in good ZvZ form)
Jin Air -1.5 -149 (I think they will 3-0 or 3-1 ST this week all 4 matchups are pretty good for them)
Reality +140 vs Marineking (I think he's a small fav, MK sucks at TvT)
Bbyong +116 vs Dream (Bbyong used to suck at TvT but now hes good at it and its Dreams worst; Dream does have a TvT starleague final to prepare for as well so may not want to give away his best builds)
KT Rolster -1.5 -125 vs Prime (Like with Jinair, the matchups fell pretty well for Jinair and I expect them to win 3-1 on average)
Skyhigh +136 vs soO (I think it's a flip, Sky's best MU and soO wasn't that convincing vs Yoda this week)
CJ Entus +139 vs SKTT1 - Matchups fell ok for them, I think they're something like 47-48% to win here

It's weird since I mostly bet small favourites, this week i'm taking a LOT of small underdog players I think are undervalued and two massive favourites and one small dog for the teams.

Ok so I have a PILE of official pending bets right now. As is usually the case if you can get within a few points of my price i'm confident it's +EV and i'm sure steam will come against me in a few of these (I nearly held off on CJ vs SKT I expect steam to come against me there + maybe a few individual matches)

IEM

Trap Map 1 +103
Trap -129
Rain -1.5 +103
Rain ML -223
Bbyong -113

Proleague

Teams

JinAir -1.5 -149
KT -1.5 -125
CJ Entus +139

Individuals

Yonghwa +150
Losira +150
Reality +140
Bbyong +116
Skyhigh +136


53-36 +8.00u overall (updated record since last update, sigh downswings, but feel good about this week)

13 bets pending

Have 17 bets pending.


Like the Reality pick, not a fan of Yonghwa over Dear. Took Byul against Inno, dont think he deserves these odds, even though he made a blunder against Flash, he is more than capable of winning here.

Innovation's ZvT did not really impress me.

If you think Inno might lose to Byul are you on the CJ line? Other matchups line up well for them, a PvZ for Hero, Bbyong's TvT better than Dream's etc

I like Yonghwa over Dear at +150 in a bo1, I think he wins at least 2 out of 5 on average vs Dear. His PvP is solid and while Dear is probably the better player, Yonghwa is in good form etc

Actually looks good yea, for some reason i thought Yohghwa is doing worse than he actually is, probably confused him with some other protoss.

Any good reasons to lean Skyhigh vs Soo? Sure Soo kinda threw his game against Yoda, but not sure if thats enough to take Skyhigh at this price.

SKT1 send Soo out against Cure in the pro league finals. They seemed to be very confident in him. He lost his last game against Yoda which he shouldn't have but that was against mech.
sKyHigh beat Solar but other than that i don't see him winning that match. Soo should be a medium sized favourite for sure.

For the first day I don't see any too far off lines. Maybe a I fire something if the lines move.

Take a look at Skyhigh's history in TvZ vs soO's ZvT. On the numbers alone and play history it looks pretty even. I think soO is in more of a slump than his recent record suggests probably, and Skyhigh is probably slightly underrated in the matchup. It's certainly not spot of the week or anything but I think it's marginally +EV

Also Terran are in a reasonably good place against Zerg in the meta right now overall. I wouldn't take sky at evens, but at the price I got i'm happy with it in a bo1

Skyhighs Zerg opponents:
Good zergs: Byul, Solar, Losira: 3:4

Bad Zergs (I don't count those): horror, Revival, PenguiN, Action, TerrOr: 10:2

So against good zergs where i would add Soo he has less than 50%.

Soo has wins over good terrans like Cure and Maru.

I am not saying skyhigh has no shot in winning especially if Soo decides to throw the win again. Just from the match history I have to pick Soo has a slight to medium favourite here.

I think soO is about -120 vs Skyhigh if I had to guess. I got +136 on Sky so that'll do. It's not a particularly amazing bet, so feel free to take the other side if you really think he's a bigger fav

Also, adding a bet on CJ Hero -121 vs Dark, price improved, Hero didn't impress much vs Rogue even though he won but he's still a PvZ specialist and it's -121 and he tends to play pretty well in proleague while dark's more inconsistent in general. If Dark plays his best the match is a flip but if he doesn't Hero is a moderate favourite

Added an official play pending

CJ Hero -121 vs Dark

sOs is getting close to bettable at -169, he's out of form but so is San, San plays badly in proleagues and there's the potential that San is throwing matches as well which increases value on his opponents.

If sOs gets below -150 i'll probably take it. Cure and Trap are tempting too if either get below -200 and if Maru gets below -180. Pretty happy with my JinAir -1.5 here it's basically just betting that 3/4 of them win, which is around the average result you'll get given Jinair's skill edge in each MU

I regret only hitting Reality, Losira and Yonghwa for 1.2u each, I had the two MVPers as even money at the prices I got and thought Reality was a small fav, Reality's become a fav now and Losira and Yonghwa are much smaller dogs now

yeah i think you are not too far off with your Soo assessment. I wouldn't recommend betting on him with the current odds (1.64 / -156).

I was considering betting on Stats and Creator if the lines improved but both got even worse. I am not comfortable with any of the KT Rolster - Prime lines. So many weird matches. Life faces a cheesy zerg on a map with a gold base. Zest - Myungsi... I ll pass on those.

Adding sOs -136 vs San to official plays list. I like a lot of spots this week more than usual

I actually like Cure and Trap too if lines improve but yeah lots of steam came in on San for some reason pushing sOs from -200 to -136, my bets moved it back to -149 so im not worried about the steam as that means its only a few hundred bucks worth given my $129 maxbet moved it back from -136 to -149

San is terrible, sOs is slumping but San has performed terribly in proleague, has hurt wrists/back/whatever, is in a demoralised team who lost their best player, might be a match fixer and is generally massively overrated outside of PvZ and even his PvZ hasnt been great lately. Recently lost 2-0 to lilbow among other stuff in a PvP.

sOs has bad recent PvP form but hasnt been playing much of it and he has Trap and Terminator to practice with, not sure who San is practicing PvP with in the Startale-Yoe house that is any good. Slump aside sOs is a top 5 protoss of the past two years and San just... isn't. Think sOs is about -150 here.

Hoping the Cure and Trap lines become bettable but not laying that much vig in a bo1 on them despite favourable matchups

Watching Creator outside PvP is very entertaining

Lol Soo choked against mech again. Seriosly?

Boom. Hit 100% of my bets yesterday.

Hopefully today goes just as well

53-36 +8.00u overall (going into this week)
IEM

Trap Map 1 +103
Trap -129
Rain -1.5 +103
Rain ML -223
Bbyong -113

Proleague

Teams

JinAir -1.5 -149
KT -1.5 -125 W
CJ Entus +139 W

Individuals

Yonghwa +150
Losira +150
Reality +140
Bbyong +116 PUSH (match was not played)
Skyhigh +136 W
sOs -136
CJ Hero -121 W

4-0 +4.75u so far this week
57-36 +12.75u overall

Decent amount of startale steam but nothing to be concerned about, in fact i'll fade it if Jinair ML hits -300

Really sOs, you lost to the likely match fixer? Sigh

Hopefully Jinair +1.5 comes through, biggest sweat is Maru vs Curious imo

With sOs in form this bad maybe they should send out Symbol or Rogue in his place and keep Trap in the team next week