Took Macsed -103 vs Iaguz for the last set.

Sucks for iaguz though, he has potential, and should've just won his games against Welmu in the first place.

Didn't see the games but it looks like HuK was being honest when he said he wasn't training properly a few days ago.

Taking MVP -125 vs Startale. The matches line up well for them stylistically. Their players are in better form in the matchups, and losing Life will definitely hurt Startale's confidence. Also, if MVP play Losira as ace if needed Startale lack the anti vs Z matchup player to deal with him.

Surprisingly not taking JinAir -200 vs Samsung, I usually find Jinair underrated but the matches fell very poorly for them this time.

Pending: MVP -125 vs ST

Will update record shortly i'm 1-2 since last update

I think MVP will definitely finish top 6 this round and have a shot at top 4 if the matchups fall their way.

He got build order countered in 3 out of the 4 games. It is very difficult to come back in PvP. He made some small wrong decisions but overall he didn't play terrible. The opponents just played a bid better and probably studied his style.

I think there could be a pile of value in betting MVP against Prime, ST and potentially Samsung and CJ this round. I think they'll have a 3-4 round and potentitally even a 4-3 one if they draw the right matchups/marineking doesn't choke constantly/Losira and Yonghwa stay in form

Uh Startale is so ****ed without life.
I took MVP @1,775
Leenock seems to be in bad shape as well. He has only 29% against not toss this year:
http://aligulac.com/players/1/result...h&game=all&op=
i took marineking @2,26
I don't even know who ST would send as an ace.
and dear @2,4

I added on MVP at -115. Had 2.5u at -125, added another 1.5u at -115. I think MVP is about -130 here.

Also added a small bet on Yonghwa at -136 which i'll make offical. San is probably a match fixer, so we can't ever bet ON him, and there's a risk of bet getting cancelled if we bet against him and the line goes nuts. While both are in better form than usual, Yonghwa's had the performances in Proleague lately and who knows what shape San is in both physically and mentally.

Also adding Liquid Hero +123 which i'll make official. Curious was crushing ZvP not long ago, but he's on a 6-7 series losing streak and while Hero is always hit or miss, I think this is a flip. I cap this one at +100 for both sides.

Startale-Yoe vs MVP

Leenock vs Marineking - Small lean Leenock. He's in AWFUL ZvT form, but impossible to pick Marineking in a TvT or TvZ against anyone right now. That said, Leenock's form is marginally worse of the two in the matchup. Amazing that 3 years ago these guys were arguably the best player in the world of their races for a brief moment each. I'd say Leenock is maybe a -120 fav here because Marineking is prone to tilt.

Alive vs Losira

Alive's form is better than I expected but he hasn't performed in Proleague or individual leagues for a long time. Losira is better at the other matchups especially ZvZ, but he did just 2-0 Maru in a random qualifier and is deservedly the favourite here. Pinny has him as a -197ish novig fav, I think it's more like -165 to -170 but that'll do.

Curious vs Liquid Hero

Curious was crushing ZvP a couple months back but is on an extended losing streak and it's traditionally been one of Hero's better matchups. I think this is a flip and will come down to who's in better form so I took the dog in Hero purely as an odds play, I literally think this is the definition of 50/50 matchup. Cap this at +100 each side.

San vs Yonghwa

The guy I suspect is potential a match fixer vs one of the most underrated guys in Proleague atm. Yonghwa went 5-2 from memory in r1 of PL and has had solid PvP results lately. San's form has improved but overall he is not as good or as consistent at Yonghwa so i'm taking the Yonghwa -136 on offer. I think Yonghwa is a -150 favourite here. There's always a risk when betting on a Super, Innovation or San match until such time as Kespa concludes their investigation so i've kept my bet small.

Overall: One small lean Startale, one flip and two small-moderate lean MVP matches. As long as MVP aren't ******ed enough to play Marineking in the ace match if necessary, I think we can call MVP a -130 favourite overall. I'm going to pick them to win 3-1.

Jinair vs Samsung

I can sum this up in a nutshell; Jinair's players are better but by sheer luck of the draw the matchups have fallen perfectly for Samsung. Solar has a great history vs sOs and it's his best MU; Dear has done ok vs Maru lifetime and isn't much of a dog, Rogue vs Shine is a high variance ZvZ and anything can happen and Trap vs Hurricane is a game where Trap is slightly more talented but it's a high variance PvP and again anything can happen.

JinAir -200 seems ok; if anything I kinda don't hate Samsung's price here, although I think JinAir are favourites to get the job done and won't be taking the Samsung +177 on offer either.

I'll pick JinAir to win 3-2, but i'm not putting any bets on this one.

Official plays

MVP (fav play of the day) at -121 average (2.5u at -125, 1.5u at -115)
YongHwa -136
Liquid Hero +123

No plays on second match today, just going to cheer for Jinair as a fav. I really feel like MVP will overperform their 'on paper' strength this round for some reason.

Still need to update record; 1-2 since last update

Weird that ST/MVP line is at -108 each now, that in itself isnt weird but the two MVP players who are favs are way bigger favs than the two ST players. I'm sure there's an arb in there somewhere for someone who isnt lazy at math

Going out to dinner and may not be back until late into ST vs MVP or even during Jinair vs Samsung.

Will sweat when im back but can someone keep an eye on line moves? No need to call 'rigged' on any significant line move as they do happen, but if someone is suddenly -500 after being -120 or whatever and then their opponent makes 'mistakes' to lose suspiciously can someone remain vigilant and screencap the lines please?

If Kespa won't police this we'll do it ourselves.

MVP at -116 atm, still like the price but have enough on for myself. Would be shocked if it closed further than ST -130 or MVP -140 can someone screencap the closing line for me please just so I can see if it ends up where I expect?

Hero is so bad at ending the game early on. He had such a big lead after curious's early pool against a forge opening. I feel like I watch a replay of hero against Pet from a few weeks ago on overgrowth. Hero throws his big lead away by harassing against sh and attacking into it.
Curious is playing that sh style like for ever. No way hero is going to win in the late game.
I didn't expect hero to take it beforehand but with Losira losing it's not looking good for mvp anymore.

lol what,
San - Yonghwa went up to 2,14

I am not betting on this match. This is already strange.

Yonghwa is ahead but why the hell did he stop to attack there? there wasn't even an overcharge ready...

Missed all matches before Yonghwa-San

Had aLive +170 and seems he won, will have to watch the vod later.

Also had Leenock -110, expecting <KP being himself, oh well.

What Losira - aLive as ace?
I did not expect that.
I didn't see the first series. =/
That would really help now.

Close one, but i didnt care about the ace match, glad that Swoop won his bet though.

Have a feeling JinAir loses this, with the Rogue getting cheesed in zvz yet again

Seems like Dear is going to win, took him +110

2/3 so far, won aLive/Dear, lost Leenock

Holy **** what a ****ing comeback by Rogue.

Everyone should watch the vod incase you missed it live.

HAHA, so nice by rogue. I wanted to bet on him but then the odds went down. =/

Took @ 1.862 dear as ace.

I took samsungs ace @2.5 for a small sweat

nice you got it before it was dear trap was announced?
The line dropped so hard after that.

I took Samsung ace as well +135 in my case. Pretty easy bet seeing that sOs is in bad shape and Maru is preparing for SSL and he wouldn't wanna give more VOD's to Stats playing against Dear.

Yeah it got in before, i wonder how fast it dropped, because in theory you could see the players even when they stay in the "shadow".

I was hoping they would go for Dear in Samsung, and worst case scenario would probably be Maru rematch, and for 2.5 odds its a pretty good spot anyway

dear playing well despite having the worse bo.
I am still afraid he might lose to a colosses push so.

Lol what the **** Dear, what a choke.

that is THE timing you have to look out for. Dear completely not prepared for it. WTF. Could have been the perfect day. Lost so much on dear now. =/