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Old 02-25-2015, 10:23 AM   #676
SwoopAE
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah i've lost like a quarter of my lifetime profit over the past month too. Very frustrating month crushing closing lines and losing anyway.
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Old 02-26-2015, 04:05 PM   #677
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Re: Esport Betting?

Didn't make any plays tonight after Dream decided to blow it at Code S - Dream vs Super was only spot I considered and decided to pass. Of course he then wins 3-0 after screwing me vs Solar.
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Old 02-26-2015, 04:34 PM   #678
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Re: Esport Betting?

Any thoughts on next GSL group? I have a bit on Maru -106 but I have no idea where to put the lines in the MC - herO. PvP is the weakest match of both players and last time they played herO won 3-2 in a very close series. I tend to move more towards MC +196 but I'm not sure.
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Old 02-26-2015, 05:38 PM   #679
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Re: Esport Betting?

Seems like Dream vs Super map1 was another fixed match. The line for Dream winning the first map dropped from 1.9 to 1.2, and Pinnacle took the match down. The bet I made yesterday is still in pending, probably Pinnacle is investigating the match.
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Old 02-26-2015, 06:24 PM   #680
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Re: Esport Betting?

Terrible news again... I can't believe how this matchfixers are stupid enough to move the lines that much. In case anyone wants to see the game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAZwidntkJ4

It's interesting that it looks like Nimbus (very terran favoured) is Super's map choice since I supose catallena is Dream's pick. Also its the second time he is involved in this kind of stuff (the other one was against Innovation in GSL not long ago).
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Old 02-26-2015, 06:46 PM   #681
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Re: Esport Betting?

I am going to be so pissed if Dream was involved. Not surprising w Super if anyone is, since he isn't rich and doesn't have a big team. Glad I stayed away. Pretty sick though given this opened at evens and should have been dream -101-199 range

Gonna watch match now.

So pissed. Might have to bump the TL thread. Has someone got the line movement history so I have the numbers at my disposal?
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:27 PM   #682
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Re: Esport Betting?

Cant really tell much, but i had placed a couple of small parlays that included Dream-Super, about 8hours or so before the start.

Had:

Dream ML -135
Dream -1.5 +160
Dream (map 1) -125

Didnt see the first game, only caught 2nd and 3rd and it was very one sided, with casters saying that Super reminds them of tilting MKP in that series
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:30 PM   #683
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Re: Esport Betting?

http://puu.sh/gdiwZ/6838fc7fa7.png
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:40 PM   #684
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Re: Esport Betting?

Pretty obvious fix based on odds, but i dont think anything will happen. Can already predict the TL reaction "Dream was obv favorite, whats wrong?"
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:45 PM   #685
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Re: Esport Betting?

Im done betting SC2
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Old 02-26-2015, 07:47 PM   #686
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Re: Esport Betting?

I think it is a bid worrisome that a lot of people here (aswell) have lost a lot of money recently considering the allogations of possible match fixing.
I have been betting big on sc2 matches for over 2 years now and february 2015 has been a terrible month for me aswell. (december 14 and january 15 weren't great either)
I really hope this is only a coincidence. I had bad month before. I would really be interested in how other sc2 betters did recently. A few people mentioning that they are doing badly is obviosuly not conclusive at all. But i am worried and considering taking a break to see how things are developing.
---------------------
About the game you posted. To analyze the it quickly:
dream played incredibly greedy, cc first, 3rd cc without units and a lot of tech. Super does the worst possible build against it with 3 obs, no forges no twilight. I think even after opening 3 obs super had to push there considering what dream was doing. He just plays macro (with bad macro) builds too many probs but at that point he is already dead even with less probs and more army. Super played very poorly here. However I wouldn't say it is an super obvious throw.
Looking at the lines however the only other explanation than match fixing seems an error on pinnacles side which is not very likely.
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Old 02-26-2015, 08:12 PM   #687
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Re: Esport Betting?

Thanks rcc

I remember the match opened at -108 for both sides, then small dream steam which is normal since he's prob -130 to -150 based on form/history etc, but that line is pretty damning
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Old 02-26-2015, 08:41 PM   #688
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Re: Esport Betting?

Made a post on TL

I might take a break from betting too if this doesn't get investigated. Worst month in a long time, and this keeps happening. I'm not saying any of the matches i bet on were fixed, there wasn't particularly suspicious movement on any but **** like this is so blatant. Have emailed Pinny asking for a statement and made a post on TL in the olimoley/san vs dark threads with the info posted here.

I mean yeah, Dream might have been -200. He certainly wasn't -650 in one map or whatever this ended up at and the amount of money to move his line that far is just staggering
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Old 02-26-2015, 09:04 PM   #689
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Re: Esport Betting?

Threw out some tweets to Totalbiscuit and mYiKane who both spoke out about the bettors fixing Olimoley tournaments by using a delay, and PM'd a TL mod. What else can we do really?
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Old 02-26-2015, 09:15 PM   #690
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Re: Esport Betting?

Was timing for the Dream-Super m1 right? Sometimes they leave the lines open when the map is already finished or near finished, so it could be the case of people trying to freeroll.

Edit: Meanwhile, TL forums never fail to dissapoint me - "Well, he did lose to jjakji two days before in the IEM qualifiers, according to Aligulac. Maybe jjakji revealed a weakness in Super's play." (c)
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Old 02-26-2015, 10:13 PM   #691
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah rcc can u confirm that was the betting line prior to the game please?
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Old 02-27-2015, 01:24 AM   #692
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MantridNinja View Post
Was timing for the Dream-Super m1 right? Sometimes they leave the lines open when the map is already finished or near finished, so it could be the case of people trying to freeroll.

Edit: Meanwhile, TL forums never fail to dissapoint me - "Well, he did lose to jjakji two days before in the IEM qualifiers, according to Aligulac. Maybe jjakji revealed a weakness in Super's play." (c)
TL's reaction to this whole thing has been surprisingly good. The majority of us went, "well, this is weird, we're waiting for the results of the investigation that we were told was ongoing". Considering the community in question, I expected pitchforks and player bashing galore. I was surprised to find them approaching this right.

But it's cool, if you'd rather just look down on us and pretend you're so intellectually superior, I guess I can't stop you. Enjoy.
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Old 02-27-2015, 02:02 AM   #693
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Re: Esport Betting?

This time the reaction's been a lot better. People realise something needs to be investigated and while some people seem a bit ignorant it's more wishful thinking on their part I think.

The first time it was pitchforks and 'F THESE 2P2 BETTING GUYS AND THEIR EVIL SPORTSBOOK FRIENDS RUINING OUR GAME' until some of us and Pinnacle reps actually showed up and started explaining what's going on.

To be fair, Teamliquid is a gaming community not a betting community, so the average poster doesn't understand probability and data on the level that the average poster here does (many of us myself included play poker or sportsbet at a professional or semi-professional level), and therefore are reluctant to draw obvious conclusions like 'there is match fixing going on at the highest levels in Korean Starcraft 2' because it means some of their idols are disgusting dishonourable sellouts, which is exactly what any player assisting matchfixers/illegal bettors is.

When I tweeted to mYiKane today, he actually tweeted back 'ye actually a couple people noticed this already so i dont know what will come of it.'.

(if you haven't watched Kane vs Happy by the way from WCS, watch it, one of the most entertaining ZvT series ever)

I'm hoping that good guys in the industry like Kane and Totalbiscuit put pressure on the right people as insiders who know something shady is going on to actually investigate, even though it isnt their responsibility to and they may be risking their careers (or at least popularity) by speaking out to some degree

Also hoping Pinnacle make a statement or email me back, haven't heard from them since 'we've forwarded this to the relevant people and they will get back to you' autoreply
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Old 02-27-2015, 06:01 AM   #694
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Re: Esport Betting?

yeah it was definitely before the game, lined even more to 1.3 dream after that, but dropped to 1.2 and then closed iirc
(yesterday around 10.40-10.45am CET)

Last edited by rcc; 02-27-2015 at 06:22 AM.
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Old 02-27-2015, 08:21 AM   #695
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Re: Esport Betting?

Sick game2 between herO and Maru
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Old 02-27-2015, 09:43 AM   #696
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Re: Esport Betting?

Another thought I had about the possible match fixing.
Even so its quite unlikely. Are we sure that the matches are not broadcasted delayed, lets say by 15 minutes?
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Old 02-27-2015, 12:45 PM   #697
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Re: Esport Betting?

Still nothing from Pinnacle?
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Old 02-27-2015, 01:59 PM   #698
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Re: Esport Betting?

Proleague lines are out on Pinnacle.
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Old 02-27-2015, 02:34 PM   #699
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Re: Esport Betting?

Is there a way to look at map balance on aligulac?
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Old 02-27-2015, 03:14 PM   #700
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmoNKa View Post
Is there a way to look at map balance on aligulac?
No their database doesn't include maps.
The only map database i know of is:
http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/hots/maps
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