Wow I expected Kelazhur to make it a close match but he won so convincingly.

46-24 +13.41u overall

3-0 +4.28u today

49-24 +17.69u overall

Is there a way i can watch VODs or replays of these games for free? Or do i have to subscribe to twitch or something?

I'd like to keep up with these games but catching them live is difficult.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/sc2-...ad?page=32#627 vod megathread on teamliquid. You can usually get spoilerfree vods there, no idea if you need to be a subscriber or not since I do subscribe to all of the major leagues since it's cheap and I like supporting esports and I happen to make money off esports betting so only fair I give a small amount back.

You can subscribe to proleague for like $5/mth or w/e it's super cheap and worth supporting. GSL, Starleague etc tends to be a bit more expensive.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/Main_Page has a list of current tournaments, brackets, etc

aligulac.com/inference is a searchable database for useful stats capping. Different cappers value different things most; for me it's observation (watching games), recent form in the matchup and caliber of opposition faced, plus the player's tendency to rise or break under pressure if it's an important match and to a more minor degree the player's overall form, history vs opponent, overall history in the matchup etc.

youtube.com/esportstv has a lot of vods after matches, although some are in korean, some are in english

twitch.tv/sc2proleague is proleague
twitch.tv/wcs is wcs (basically the code s equiv for NA/EU)
twitch.tv/sc2starleague is starleague
twitch.tv/gsl is code s

dreamhack, iem, redbull battlegrounds, homestory cup etc and all of the one off tournaments will have a link to the stream in the wiki.teamliquid page for that tournament

A thought occurs. I should have gotten odds on being able to win 50 units by the end of a single season of Proleague. I'm still probably a dog to get there as we've run slightly above EV in the thread (I think we should be up 10u or so atm running to EV and we're up 17) but I feel like I almost certainly could have got 10-1 or better. I'd say we're probably +150 dogs to win 50 units, but favourites to win 40 by the end of the season. Or we could heater and win 100 or get doomswitched and break even who knows.

Just a reminder for anyone tuning in recently; I have Dream -137 pending, game isnt for a week and a bit but it's probably something like the third best play i've posted since the season started, -136 is available right now and it's better than the price I got officially, although I did add some at -129 and -136 and -138 as well (got just under 5u total on this play at an average of -136ish) and i'm fairly confident in capping Dream as a -170 favourite. I wouldn't take Solar confidently until about +220. It feels really good because Solar is the bigger name in a form slump and Dream is on the rise and the matchup favours Dream.

Current record

49-24 +17.69u

Awesome, thanks Swoop!

Yeah I've been looking through Aligulac and Liquipedia for stats and info. Aligulac's prediction feature is useless I think, but it has some nice stats. I think watching games is the most useful anyway.

Nice record btw, smashing it even if you're running well.

Prediction is useless it's just based on MMR. ForGG would be the king of the world since hes been crushing european cans if it was relevant

Just use it for the stats, the %s are useless and dont even take the matchup into account, and for example Dream's TvT or Hero's PvP are not as good as their other MUs and there is no way Dream has the same chance to beat Innovation in a bo7 as he does to beat Hydra (chances are almost even due to Hydra crushing NA cans)

Made some on Kel 2-0'ing TLO, and lost on Polt not covering the -1,5 against Jim.

TLO looked horrible. I only watched the first 2 matches so not sure how did he manage to get out of his group.

Polt looked very mediocre as well, with commentators pointing out he is playing hearthstone it makes sense. His TvP was always his strongest matchup and yet he looked extremely un-sharp and shaky against Jim. This group was overall super weak and most koreans should've zero problems taking the 4-0 there.

Why is Parting the favourite (according to odds) to take the series against Maru but Maru the favourite to take map 1?

It's just a single max bet worth of difference in price this far out so I assume someone either hit the Parting ML or Maru Map 1 once for the max. I could swing it back with a couple hundred dollars if I wanted to maxbet one or the other.

If one of them was -150 and the other was at even money we'd have a cause for concern maybe but as it stands it means nothing.

If we had the maps we'd have a reason but we don't yet, eg Iron Fortress has a nice winrate for Protoss (small sample) and Catallena has a nice winrate for Terran (large sample) so that can move the line by a few points.

Adding Dream Map 1 vs Solar -117

I like it for the same reason I like the ML in that bo3 obviously.

I'll probably fire Maps 2 and 3 as well if the odds are similar when lines open.

WCS lines are out again and after a quick look the line I like the most is the iaguz +203 against MacSed, in my opinion it's a 50-50 match. At first look I don't really like the rest of the lines but I need to do a proper research.

meh you're prob on right side but barely, iaguz looked good last wcs and is improving but macsed has better form in MU and nice lifetime history vs iaguz

looking for spots now

Taking Targa -142 vs Kane.

Still looking

Tempted by Pig +319 vs Happy but don't think i'll quite fire it yet. If it gets above +350 I will for sure though. +1.5 will be tempting when its out too if at plus

Liked Major at first vs Bunny but decided not to. Not enough sample of him being improved despite what the numbers say and i've seen Bunny at his skill ceiling and he's the better player.

Taking Violet -215 vs Mana as well.

Also screw it, taking Pig +319 vs Happy (go small here he's a dog for a reason but I think it's more like +280 or something at first glance)

Pending: Dream Map 1 -117, Dream -137 vs Solar

Added today

Pig +319 vs Happy
Violet -215 vs Mana
Targa -142 vs Kane

A few others are tempting, Suppy, Hydra, maybe Iaguz - need more analysis though and none stand out.

None of the three are super amazing spots like Dream was against Solar, but I think they're all +EV.

Also took Violet and Pig.

In addition to that, definately taking iaguz and iasonu, and thinking about Has over Naniwa

Yeah Naniwa's layoff had me thinking about Has but his record is just so ****ty against Protoss, and Naniwa's beaten some legit guys this week.

I'll get on Iaguz if the price improves, as is I think it's the right side but about breakeven.

What do you like about Iasonu?

I just think the line is skewed, i dont see Showtime as a -350 fav here, more like -250, if not -200. Plus its his weakest matchup (PvZ), and chiniese zergs are in general have somewhat decent ZvP.

Also you can probably wait till some steam will come on Naniwa closer to the start, as it usually does on fan favorite players. Naniwa's PvP is not really that impressive and he himself does not have much confidence in it.

I think being teamless and not living in a teamhouse/having good practice partners will make that PvP quite variance heavy and build dependant overall. Has sucks for sure, but i think just riding the variance wave between two bad players (with one being overrated by fans) is not bad at all, maybe for half a unit or so.

According to Aligulac PvZ is ShowTime's best matchup and his last results on this matchup are very decent. Also he's been at the very top of the EU ladder for many months. I don't know I think the guy is really good I don't see any value on this line.

I'm also thinking about putting a bit on Has right before the match. NaNiwa has told many times in the last weeks how much he hates PvP, specially playing agaist medriocre players who gamble a lot, and chinese players take gambling to the next level. I can see NaNiwa getting tilted if map one doesn't go well.

wow, Happy is -240 vs Pig now. Won't quite arb it off for guaranteed profit yet but if he drops below -200 I will

Also Violet is -186 now. Going to double my bet there. Really, really good spot at -186 imo. At -215 it was good but not amazing, at -186 it's great.

Average price on Violet now -201 (1.28u at -215, 1.28u at -186)

49-24 +17.69u overall

Pending

Dream -137 average
Dream Map 1 -117
Violet -201 average
Pig +319
Targa -142

Figure i'd better upload a confirmation since some guy on twitter accused me of faking my record a while back and i'm adjusting a price here because i'm adding an additional bet on a line. If anyone ever wants confirmation I actually got the line I posted just ask and specify which line. And to the guy on twitter, gfy obv

Violet line at -200 now I think thats still good if anyone wants it. Crazy line move on Pig, I liked +319 but only went a partial unit on it, now he's +186. If I had to guess i'd say Violet is maybe -233ish? Pig I have no idea but love my side w line move at the price I got, prob wouldnt take current price though. Current line on Targa at -165 seems about right but worth hitting if it heads back towards my price, he has a way better record than Kane in ZvZ although I do like that Kane spoke out about the betting stream delays match fixing so if I lose that bet i'll be happy for him.

Violet lost. Didn't get to see the matches so not sure what went wrong.

49-24 +17.69u

0-1 -2.01u today

48-25 +15.68u overall

Hopefully Targa and Pig do better today.