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Old 12-24-2014, 05:00 AM   #26
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah np - your post just came across as a shill post but im sure there might be value at times, I just checked it out though and every single sc2 game was basically pinnacle prices plus added juice.

If the vig is -105 on the big tourneys ill def consider throwing some BTC on there but for the smaller tourneys the lines just look bad

Obv for US facing people with no options to have someone outside the US place their bets for them it makes sense.

Not really loving any of the lines for today's Starleague. Might put some degen sweat bets on but nothing really looks +EV
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Old 12-24-2014, 07:43 AM   #27
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Re: Esport Betting?

Fading some steam again. Think Inno is about -140 to -150 but absurd steam puts value on Stats

Adding

Stats +210 and Dear -1.5 +118

For today

Also bet Gumiho +130ish which hit but obv doesnt count as I didnt post it

Not going to put any down as bet of the day as nothing is super amazing.
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Old 12-24-2014, 09:04 AM   #28
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Re: Esport Betting?

wish somebody took bets on tekken and usf4. I would clean up
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Old 12-24-2014, 10:04 AM   #29
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

Stats +210 and Dear -1.5 +118
Both wins

8-5 +2.86u overall.

Picks of the day 2-0 +2.11u
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Old 12-24-2014, 10:47 AM   #30
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Re: Esport Betting?

Any American facing sites take these bets ?
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Old 12-24-2014, 10:50 AM   #31
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Re: Esport Betting?

I'm only aware of Pinnacle and BTC books personally, from memory Digibet have esports too but I dont think theyre us facing
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Old 12-24-2014, 03:35 PM   #32
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ya I bet on nitrogen too
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Old 12-25-2014, 04:33 PM   #33
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Re: Esport Betting?

Today's SC2 picks: Super +125, Fantasy +1.5 -169, Hero -147 and Leenock -166. Not selecting any as a pick of the day.
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Old 12-25-2014, 09:31 PM   #34
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Re: Esport Betting?

So is anyone else going to post their picks/discussion or is it just me?
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Old 12-26-2014, 06:16 AM   #35
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Today's SC2 picks: Super +125, Fantasy +1.5 -169, Hero -147 and Leenock -166. Not selecting any as a pick of the day.
Four incredibly easy wins. 3-0, 3-1, 3-0 and 2-0 in a bo5 to cover the +1.5

4-0 +4.25 for the day.

12-5 +7.11u overall

I know who I like for 3 of the 4 proleague games this week at the prices they will open at, will post my picks after i've got the action down I want. Pretty sure there will be 3 amazing spots this week on proleague that could even be double digit roi. I mean, the lines aren't out yet but I have a good idea of where they'll open
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Old 12-26-2014, 02:40 PM   #36
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Re: Esport Betting?

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So is anyone else going to post their picks/discussion or is it just me?
Like i said only bet LoL which is in between events and in preseason right now so nothing to bet except Korean scene which i don't really follow. Will probably tail your sc2 bets this week tho
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Old 12-27-2014, 06:12 AM   #37
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ah cool - are you profitable? Will tail your picks if you're up lifetime for the occasional sweat.

I'm pretty confident i'll be up 50 units after 1000 bets. See how it goes. Pretty sure i'll make 1000 on SC2 before the end of PL season.

The matchups fell perfectly for 1 of the 3 PL bets I expect to like this week so might be huge value, but one of the others fell really badly for the team I originally liked so there may not be value.
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Old 12-27-2014, 01:39 PM   #38
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Re: Esport Betting?

Proleague lines out - limits still small, ive identified 5-6 spots I like, two will move in my favour as people bet on the already square side pretty much 100% of the time, three could go either way and one is likely to get worse but isn't so amazing I feel a need to bet now.

There are also a few lines that will become good if the steam I expect hits the right players

All in all I think i'm better off waiting until limits are a bit higher rather than letting them use me to sharpen their lines this wk
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Old 12-27-2014, 07:39 PM   #39
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Re: Esport Betting?

Is your hourly over $2 on this?
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Old 12-27-2014, 11:18 PM   #40
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Re: Esport Betting?

yea what are the limits on these whacky things?
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Old 12-27-2014, 11:55 PM   #41
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Re: Esport Betting?

i wanted to bet a esport game so i just bet the favorite a -300 and they got owned and everyone in chat was saying they were throwing it it was sad
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Old 12-28-2014, 03:12 AM   #42
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Re: Esport Betting?

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i wanted to bet a esport game so i just bet the favorite a -300 and they got owned and everyone in chat was saying they were throwing it it was sad
Depending on what game (video game, not individual game) you bet on, upsets are extremely common. I know Dota 2 commonly has upsets, League is fairly unstable, and Counter Strike is the least likely game for upsets to happen. I'd love to hear from @SwoopAE on the upset chance in the SC2 scene.

Also, people claiming teams are throwing is common in the eSports scene. No teams are throwing in a major tournament with prize pools from 250k-10m, but unknown teams playing tournaments for 3k shouldn't be completely trusted. If you're watching CS:GO or Dota 2 from Twitch.tv, remember that kids under 18 can bet their items on the games and will be raging/accusing teams of throwing at any mistake made.

I'm sort of biased towards eSports because I've never really got into other sports, but am still interested in making bets. I enjoy watching the games, and have been doing fairly well betting. Best part of eSports is that I can bet on CSGO/Dota2 lounge and they only take ~3% rake
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Old 12-28-2014, 09:21 AM   #43
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Is your hourly over $2 on this?
I think i'm up ~11k or so from esports and I don't think ive spent 5k+ hours capping or close to it. I actually have no idea i'd say maybe half an hour a day for two years or so?

I'm also not maxbetting a lot of the time unless i'm hitting opening lines though - also I do it for the love of esports/sweats watching the games more than profit, i'm a professional poker player and recreational (although profitable) sportsbettor. My average bet size is 100-200ish at base units

Limits start at 50-100 opening lines, move to 200, then 500 then 1k by game time usually for major tournaments like Proleague, Code S, etc.

Major tournaments with six figure prizemoney etc are often 2-10k for the grand final but less in early rounds.

Live betting limits are usually 200-500ish

Overall I find the most value in marginal favourites that should be bigger favourites (-110 to -170 range) but there's often value on dogs as well.

In general I *think* if I blanket bet all underdogs or favourites I would lose overall both ways but results would be worse blanket betting all dogs narrowly. That's not based on any analysis though just what I think would be the case.

Just woke up; limits are 307 aud atm (250 us?) so they're getting up to a level where i'll consider making bets, they'll be 500-1k US on game day. Most of the line movement happens in the minutes before each game, so if we want to bet a fan favourite we bet now or sooner than now, if we want to fade a fan favourite (Flash, Jaedong, etc) then we bet literally one second before the game starts if possible. It's not uncommon to see lines move from -120 to -210 or +135 to +200 etc
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Old 12-28-2014, 09:44 AM   #44
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Re: Esport Betting?

Cure -105 vs Dark - marginal spot but decent matchup and map for Cure, Dark is in better form but I just think Cure is a slightly better player and he wins here something like 55% of the time.

Maru -135 vs Soo - Putting this one down as a pick of the day. Maru is in much better form, soo is 2-7 in the matchup recently and Terran has a great record vs Zerg on Foxtrot Labs and a lot of that was before the T>Z current meta as well.

I think Maru is more like -160 here even in a bo1.

I also like Jinair to beat SKTT1 but expected to get -108; at -137 is still okish but SKTT1 have more casual fans so i'm waiting for a better price, if it gets to -120 i'll fire if not I won't.

TY -225 vs Departure

TY is way better than Departure. The price is steep, but he's a better player, in better form. The map isn't the best for TY, but I just don't see Departure winning more than 3 games out of 10 if they were to play 10 times on average. If this was -200 i'd love it; if it was -250 i'd pass. Think it's a marginal bet at -225.

We're also going to bet Losira against Flash at the last possible second I figure it's fine to tell you all this now because no amount of steam this forum could generate will counter the casual money on flash steam that always comes. +168 is already a good price on Losira because Flash is in awful form in TvZ and this game is closer to a flip but the steam ALWAYS comes on Flash and the price will get better. Flash is a favourite because he is on a good map and T>Z in current meta etc but he's so out of form we snap fade him for +168 on Losira here (I expect to get +180 at least a lot of the time). If I had to guess i'd say Losira is +125 to +130 here.

Ranking these bets 1-4, i'd go Maru, Losira, Cure, TY in that order. I've fired 2.5u on Maru, 1u each on Cure and TY personally.

If we're only going for 5%+ ROI spots i'd just take Maru, and then Losira if/when the price gets above +175. If we're looking for anything +EV I take all four. I'm also firing Jinair if the price gets to -120 and will fire sOs if the price gets to -120 against Innovation which there's a good chance it will.

Classic is also objectively a good spot at +105 vs Rogue; slightly worse form but great history against the player and good map. I don't like betting against my favourite team's players unless the spot is super obvious though and this is marginal; i'd say Classic is more like -105 than +105 here so i'll pass.

I also have some bets I like for the day after tomorrow's games but waiting for limits to increase.

Recorded bets - Maru -135, Cure -105, TY -225. Maru as bet of the day.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 12-28-2014 at 09:49 AM.
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Old 12-28-2014, 03:41 PM   #45
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Re: Esport Betting?

Adding sOs -119 to todays picks

Also adding Yoda -147 for tomorrow
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Old 12-29-2014, 11:57 AM   #46
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Re: Esport Betting?

Cure -105 W sOs -119 L Maru -135 L TY -225 W

Losira +168 was also a win but not going to count it because I fell asleep and didn't actually get to place the bet which I was going to do last minute.

2-2 -0.54u for the day

14-7 +6.57u overall
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Old 12-29-2014, 12:16 PM   #47
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Re: Esport Betting?

Today's picks

Yoda -145 (added a second bet at -143 so averaging them)
Myungsik -178

Nothing stands out much today, all of the favourites should win in general but nothing stands out as amazing, lines seem pretty sharp. May fade some steam later if any prices improve a lot.
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Old 12-30-2014, 11:32 AM   #48
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Re: Esport Betting?

Probably shouldn't have even fired today didn't love either line that much. 1-1, down a partial unit

15-8 +5.79u overall
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Old 12-30-2014, 01:11 PM   #49
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Probably shouldn't have even fired today didn't love either line that much. 1-1, down a partial unit

15-8 +5.79u overall
As someone who has never played SC2 before but is interested in betting, would you mind helping me out with a few questions I have?
Do pro players switch (classes/races/picks) often, like Zerg/Terran/Protoss? Basically what I mean by this is, is it a good idea to know who would be favored in the match up based on which (class/race/pick) they play?
Also, I've heard coaches play a HUGE role in SC2, so does that mean players from the same organizations all play at similar skill levels?

I've been trying to do some research on my own because I'm interested in betting on SC2, but there aren't many resources available. Thanks in advance for any help.
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Old 12-30-2014, 01:23 PM   #50
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Re: Esport Betting?

keep em coming swoop better than me betting blind
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