Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Did some analysis. You're right, on the numbers Kelazhur is the play. Disclaimer, these three plays are mostly just on the numbers havent seen much of Jim or Kelazhurs play lately. My specialty is the Korean scene, but why not let's add a few anyway since I put 1u on each of them in reality.
Polt -212 vs Jim
Kelazhur +1.5 -150 vs TLO
Kelazhur +228 vs TLO
Also pending
Dream -137 vs Solar (he's in to -129 now, I added a little extra, great spot imo, Dream is in better form, Solar is the bigger name so has more casual money prob, and Dream beat him 3-1 when they played a couple weeks ago and made it look easy)
Also did some analysis on the earlier group; my gut says Xigua over Astrea but the numbers say line is sharp and I haven't seen Astrea play ever so my analysis sucks, and Snute/uThermal line seems about right although if I took anything it would be the uThermal ML as a dog at +228, I think he's more like +200 but again haven't watched much of uthermal or snute recently, snute at his best wins easily but I think uthermal's been on the rise for a while and Snute isn't at his best anymore so i'll just stay away.
Life/Yoda line seems okish, if anything there may be value on Yoda +1.5 at -116 but i'm just going to leave it since I have a sweat play on Yoda to win Code S at absurd odds. TY vs Soulkey depends how TY's wrists are; if they're good the correct side is TY, if they're still hurting the correct side is Soulkey.
Rogue is getting very close to a play vs Rain. +189 and climbing, if he gets above +200 I think this will become a play. Same for if the +1.5 gets down to -120ish.
Solar vs Dream, i've already clearly stated Dream is the correct play and in theory the best value of any line available right now on any league. Minor steam on Solar, but wouldn't be too concerned as he was -200 when they met a few weeks ago and Dream won. Dream's ascension to elite player is still in progress and I think most people consider him mid tier.
Parting/Maru, in theory the math says Parting, but having watched Maru play the last two weeks i'm not touching this at all at close to evens in either direction. Hero/MC not touching it either, Hero is a way better player but sometimes has off days in PvP and MC has on days so whatever.
Last edited by SwoopAE; 02-12-2015 at 12:01 AM.