WCS lines are out. I was really looking forward for the odds of the Kelazhur - TLO and they are as good as I expected. Kelazhur is at +223 and I give him a 35-40% chance of winning. TLO is a fan favourite and an overrated player while on the other hand I heard good stuff about Kelazhur and he is an unknown brazilian player. Also he beat CatZ 3-0 in challenger league, and even though I think TLO is a superior player compared to CatZ, they both are known for their "creative" playstyle and not being consistent in standard macro games.

Rest of the lines seem pretty tight and with chinese players is very hard to predict.

Sick sweat on my small bet on MMA at 88-1 to win Code S now if he plays like that. Got small partial unit sweats on Yoda, Innovation, Rain, Rogue and Dream as well at decent prices. (121, 7, 10, 21, 23 roughly). Might add some Maru too in ro8 depending on his draw but I think i'll still get 5-1 or so, so no point locking in 7-1ish available now when he has a tough group. Wish they had a no option so I could have faded Dark at 7-1, he's the #2 zerg probably right now but doesn't win Code S 1 in 7 times from the r16 w who's left imo.

No plays yet for Starleague tonight, i'll do some proper analysis later but lines seem sharpish, Leenock's ZvT isn't as good as his ZvP so I don't think he's quite a play on either side, and Stats seems like a fairly small fav over Rogue based on my quick analysis which is where the line is. I'll check it out again later. I actually really like all 4 players tonight.

Kelazhurs been pretty bad in the games I saw but they were all over 6 mths ago. I think he's improved a lot since. Will take a look at the WCS games and do some analysis I havent even seen them yet

Jinair got out to +125 vs SKT but in to +110 now, and SKT at -129. Prob should have taken the +125 but im waiting for significant line movement in either direction.

Did some analysis. You're right, on the numbers Kelazhur is the play. Disclaimer, these three plays are mostly just on the numbers havent seen much of Jim or Kelazhurs play lately. My specialty is the Korean scene, but why not let's add a few anyway since I put 1u on each of them in reality.

Polt -212 vs Jim
Kelazhur +1.5 -150 vs TLO
Kelazhur +228 vs TLO

Also pending

Dream -137 vs Solar (he's in to -129 now, I added a little extra, great spot imo, Dream is in better form, Solar is the bigger name so has more casual money prob, and Dream beat him 3-1 when they played a couple weeks ago and made it look easy)

Also did some analysis on the earlier group; my gut says Xigua over Astrea but the numbers say line is sharp and I haven't seen Astrea play ever so my analysis sucks, and Snute/uThermal line seems about right although if I took anything it would be the uThermal ML as a dog at +228, I think he's more like +200 but again haven't watched much of uthermal or snute recently, snute at his best wins easily but I think uthermal's been on the rise for a while and Snute isn't at his best anymore so i'll just stay away.

Life/Yoda line seems okish, if anything there may be value on Yoda +1.5 at -116 but i'm just going to leave it since I have a sweat play on Yoda to win Code S at absurd odds. TY vs Soulkey depends how TY's wrists are; if they're good the correct side is TY, if they're still hurting the correct side is Soulkey.

Rogue is getting very close to a play vs Rain. +189 and climbing, if he gets above +200 I think this will become a play. Same for if the +1.5 gets down to -120ish.

Solar vs Dream, i've already clearly stated Dream is the correct play and in theory the best value of any line available right now on any league. Minor steam on Solar, but wouldn't be too concerned as he was -200 when they met a few weeks ago and Dream won. Dream's ascension to elite player is still in progress and I think most people consider him mid tier.

Parting/Maru, in theory the math says Parting, but having watched Maru play the last two weeks i'm not touching this at all at close to evens in either direction. Hero/MC not touching it either, Hero is a way better player but sometimes has off days in PvP and MC has on days so whatever.

unibet seem to be offering esports lines now - theyre the same lines as pinny though with bigger juice, so whatever sadly not that interesting

Will be capping tonights games live, no particular value spots yet but I assume there will be

huge money on life today, now yoda +1.5 pays 2.66, ml 5.26 and 1st map 3.47

Yoda +244 and Yoda +1.5 -133 vs TY.

Playing both the ML and Handicap here. I definitely think he wins more often than losing 2-0, and a 2-1 loss will be a push for me.

It was +295 and -130, I got distracted for 30 seconds and lost a huge amount of value. Whatever, TY is only like -150 here probably so they're both bets anyway. Absurd it was at +295, I lost 51 points (whatever, terminologys wrong) due to being distracted for a few seconds and I still think it's a double digit ROI spot.

Well that was a disgusting ending to game 1. Surprised he didnt at least stay in the game though. So dumb to just leave 3 medivacs there and die.

Sorry guys. That was just inexcusable from Yoda, but he had a lead in game 2 there. Absurd to forget to unload a medivac there. Would have had a lead.

wow that was an inexcusably awful performance by Yoda. 0-2 -2.33u so far today. Just awful, it's the worst he's played all season.

TY did play quite well, if he's a dog to soulkey I may take him.

TY +132 vs Soulkey (second series)

Seems more like TY +110 or w/e. Granted I missed first series but a guy whose analysis is solid agrees that at +132 its the play so itll do

Prime are completely ****ed in 2nd round of proleague if Yoda plays like that. He made mistakes I wouldn't make as a gold-plat level player.

I guess we beat the closing line comfortably with Yoda even if that's meaningless when he loses.

edit: TY at +131 now surprisingly little line movement on this one after a couple minutes it hasn't really got action either way

edit2: closes at +136. Didn't get above +140 or below +130 at any stage I don't think. Pretty crazy. Very rare a line gets so little movement - gl TY, you cost us money, now make it back!

Yoda completely fell apart in last 2 months. He was top5 TvZ with pretty good TvT before, but nowadays he's just terrible. It is quite missleading to see him in ro16 of GSL becase he had probably the easiest path (myungsik, penguin and liquid.hero in qualifications + marineking-san in ro32 group).
both 2.7 for a +1.5 against Life and 1.7 for +1.5 against TY would be a steal 2 months ago but today it was just waste of money :/

Made about a unit today, had Soulkey-Ty opening game pending for like 2 days for -105, it was up for the taking for quite a long time(a week or something i think), and moved to like -170 near the start, not sure why. Maybe TY was still confirmed sick on air or something, did not watch the stream.

TY was sick last week + had bad wrists. Led to him falling apart vs Maru last week in I think it was starleague?

Clutch thor micro to drop into banes there, built a lead, lost it then took it back and hit the 3-3 timing

1-0 TY, close it out and get us back close to even for the day please TY

At full strength TY is a small fav over Soulkey, he's been under the weather but he played fine vs Yoda so I pulled the trigger at +132, granted Yoda played awfully but I think as long as TY plays 'average' that +132 is a good price vs current Soulkey

His TvZ also looked fine even in defeat vs Dark with the messed up wrists in that Starleague group last wk or whenever it was it was the TvT vs Maru that he fell apart in (which is another reason I liked Yoda as a big dog there, the TY falls apart equity)

It was not to be though. Disgraceful performance by Yoda, and Prime need more from him if they're going to not finish last next round.

1-1, last map has a 52.7% TvZ winrate so not bad for us. Come on TY close it out.

TY wins, 1-2 -1.01u for the day

44-22 +13.35u

1-2 -1.01u today

45-24 +12.34u overall

Dream, Polt, Kelazhur, Kelazhur +1.5 pending

Cure +107 vs Dream, Proleague

Dream's in amazing form but it's his worst MU, I think Cure has an edge in TvT here. Hugely important game as the losing team will have a nightmare trying to choose a player to send out second. Logically Jinair should actually send Maru if Cure loses, and SKT should probably send Classic but neither team would like that at all. I think Jinair narrowly won the opening matchup selections as Dream drew his worst matchup and this is huge for Jinair being able to use Rogue with Dream gone later in the game although if Dream beats Rogue they either have to choose an iffy matchup or send Maru early if they have the nerve to do it.

I think Cure is -125 here though and the odds aren't accounting for the matchup properly. It's baffling to me that Dream has similar odds next week for the matches against Cure and Solar, when Solar is out of form and it's Dream's best matchup vs Cure being his worst matchup.

This game is critical to the final, if Dream wins then loses the second game i'd say SKT are still -130, and if Cure wins then loses the second game i'd say Jinair are -130 because having the player pick to counter whoever is sent out second will be HUGE matchup wise. Obviously if either guy gets two kills their team is going to win an enormous % of the time.

I'm surprised Dream opened as the favourite though. They're overrating a 2-1 win against Maru when Maru had his worst series of the past month. His TvT while improving is not elite like his TvP and especially TvZ and while Cure's TvZ and TvP are good they're not on Dream's level, but I think his TvT is better overall so this really favours Jinair.

Ye Dream's TvT is very questinable. He almost managed to throw a match against Maru with huge advantage in everything, just by overcommiting with drops.

His tvt style is overall very throw'y. He just has these urges to load 50% of his army into medivacs and trade it for 10 worker kills or something, and then die to a counterattack.

You can still get Cure at about evens if you want it. I don't know if the public will overrate or underrate Dream, right now I think the two best lines available on any league are Dream against Solar and Cure against Dream. It's incomprehensible to me that he's seen as equally likely to win both matches when Solar is in horrible form and it's a vastly superior matchup for him. My two biggest pending plays in order are Dream over Solar and Cure over Dream.

Worth noting is Dream has a sub 50% winrate in TvT lifetime way under his other 2 matchups and Cure's is over 60% - not that relevant compared to form etc, but worth mentioning.

Cure is now the favourite over Dream at -118ish so line seems to have moved to close to what I expected. Also, Jinair is -111 now to SKT's -105, first time they've been favourites since lines opened. I got on Jinair at -101 for a sweat but Cure is the better value bet at +107 as I think the likelihood of Cure winning is about the same as the likelihood of Jinair winning.

Pretty annoyed i'll miss sweating live tonight due to valentines day but i'll either tune in partway through the match after dinner etc or watch the vods tomorrow. This match should be amazing and I hope it's not a one sided all-kill or whatever although I guess i'd be ok with Jinair humiliating SKT 4-0. I feel like this will come down to Maru vs Innovation on map 7 a pretty high % of the time though.

SK tel slaughters jinair without even using Innovation at all, did not see this coming, especially after a decent start they had. (Cure>Dream, Soo>Cure, sOs>Soo)

Rogue's a bit out of form, probably should have used Trap. Maru lost to Dark, which while surprising isn't a huge upset or anything. It happens. Any of SKT/KT/Jinair can beat any other team on any day.

Glad I didn't end up firing Jinair, I thought Cure was the better spot.

45-24 +12.34u overall

1-0 +1.07u for the day (Cure W)

46-24 +13.41u overall

Dream, Kelazhur, Kelazhur +1.5 and Polt pending

Round 2 futures will be interesting, if we can get Jinair/KT/SKT at +300 or so each it could be worth taking all 3 and just printing because nobody else has the roster to win round 2 more than a tenth of the time or even close to it really. CJ are the closest threat but they're just not on the level of the big three teams.

Also slight chance KT will be underrated this round due to weak r1 performance, it depends whether the coach has the nerve to drop Flash from the term on merit or not.

So we're a quarter of the way through the proleague season and just over a quarter of the way to our target of +50u for the season.

I'll have to make a larger number of bets to be a fav to get there but there are a lot of individual leagues going on and tournaments coming up so who knows...

Kelazhur looked good against TLO. Thanks for the tip.

Polt -212 vs Jim is up next
Kelazhur +1.5 -150 vs TLO W
Kelazhur +228 vs TLO W

Dream -137 also pending

So far 2-0 +3.28u today will cap rest of WCS group live but no idea if theyll have odds or not on winners/losers/final match