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Old 02-05-2015, 07:29 AM   #426
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Re: Esport Betting?

Good performance by Dream. Hopefully some value in winners/losers match.
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:35 AM   #427
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Re: Esport Betting?

Dream +183 vs Dark. Lock it in.

Dark is amazing but Dream is great at the matchup and not this much of a dog. I said before the day that i'd take +185 happily and I think this is closer to +150 for Dream. He is a dog, but I think he wins 40%ish

TY is technically a bet at +113 vs Maru too imo but i'm going to not play it because i'm a huge Maru fan and I really want him to win. Anyone without said bias feel free to bet it though. Would cap this at +100 and I have a slight Maru bias, if my life was on the line I probably pick TY at evens although if Maru brings his A game he'll win. He didn't against Dream though.

First play of the day - Dream +183
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:53 AM   #428
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Re: Esport Betting?

Good start. 1-0, Come on Dream, get the job done.
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:02 AM   #429
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Re: Esport Betting?

Very weird game by Dark, he had uninterrupted eco and perfect info about everything, and thats the best he managed to do?
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:09 AM   #430
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Re: Esport Betting?

Just got caught off guard by mech. It happens. Dark about to win game 2. I'm still convinced i'm on the right side even though Dark is a fav to win Game 3 I do think Dream is underrated and wins the series 40%ish (45%ish prob given its now a bo1 assuming he wins g2)
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:10 AM   #431
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Re: Esport Betting?

lol wtf was that last engagement by dream i mean it was lost anyway, but lol
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:23 AM   #432
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Re: Esport Betting?

Looking good.. come on dream, finish the job
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:27 AM   #433
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Re: Esport Betting?

Boom

1-0 +1.83u for the day so far, feels good to get that one right.

I hope Maru gets the job here, i'd love to see Maru vs Dark.

I think this one's a flip so in theory TY would be the play but Maru does perform when it's all on the line and TY can be amazing or awful. I'm going to stay away from this one and just cheer for Maru as a fan.
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:35 AM   #434
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Re: Esport Betting?

Announcer just said TY was sick yesterday and has been having wrist problems, explains the lines, time to stay away from this one
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:46 AM   #435
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Re: Esport Betting?

Thinking Maru will win it now, TY didn't even look in that one. -132 isnt really worth it in a bo1 though (for map 2)
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:54 AM   #436
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Re: Esport Betting?

Maru vs Dark is going to be epic. Maru is ripping TY apart. Makes sense why I liked TY line not knowing he was sick yesterday/sore wrists. Makes his performance vs Dark even more impressive. Glad I didn't end up betting him.
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Old 02-05-2015, 08:59 AM   #437
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Re: Esport Betting?

Opens Dark -120 Maru +103. Seems about right. Might fade steam either way if its big
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Old 02-05-2015, 09:03 AM   #438
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Re: Esport Betting?

Maru's TvZ record is actually slightly better than I thought. Kinda think he should win a lot now he's got a nice record in best of 3+s and definitely overperforms in key games while Darks less proven in individual leagues. At first glance I leaned Dark at evens but now I think objectively it's a flip and I kinda think Maru might 2-1 him if I had to pick an exact result

No real value anywhere though so we end today officially at 1-0 +1.83u

42-22 +10.52u overall
1-0 +1.83u today

43-22 +12.35u overall
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Old 02-05-2015, 10:39 AM   #439
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Re: Esport Betting?

Pretty tilting that Maru won both Dark and TY while losing to Dream, espessialy after being up 1-0, his loss costed me about 3k profits in a 10-15 leg parlays.

Anyway, considering TY's condition, he played a damn solid TvZ against Dark.
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Old 02-05-2015, 11:15 AM   #440
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah I agree TY played really well vs Dark then awfully vs Maru

I get why he was +163 now since I assume him being sick was public knowledge since the casters knew about it
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Old 02-06-2015, 12:27 PM   #441
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Re: Esport Betting?

Code S lines out. One line I like but dont want to tie up funds for weeks at 300 limits. Player in question is underrated in the MU anyway so similar price will prob be available then. I'm assuming you can all figure out who i'm talking about with that info anyway.

sOs vs Curious is first MU of Jinair vs Startale; I assume it'll open Jinair -150ish Startale +130ish for series but who knows. I figure it'll be 1-1 after two games anyway a lot with Startale using Leenock if sOs wins and Jinair using Rogue if Curious wins and from there who knows - Jinair's roster is slightly deeper so they should be small favs in AllKill format unless Life has a huge day but anything can happen. Winner faces CJ Entus the next day, I think Jinair match up well with CJ, especially if sOs can take out Hero in a PvP. CJ will need at least two wins from Hero to win imo. If Startale beat Jinair then it'll come down to how Life and Leenock fare in allkill format imo, they probably want 3 kills between them against CJ for the win and they should be preparing a PvP sniper if they can but they just don't have one - Leenock's ZvP is great but thats Heros best MU and Bomber isnt really known for his TvP although thats a maybe if he trains TvP all week. SKT in the final it all depends who they field, Dream, Innovation, Dark +1 is their go to lineup atm but who knows. Final should be amazing either way.

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Old 02-07-2015, 01:24 PM   #442
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Re: Esport Betting?

JinAir/ST line opens exactly where I thought it would. Might bet Jinair if they get to -130 or better otherwise will leave it alone and just cheer for them as a fan. Might take Startale if they get to +160 or better.

One of the great Code S lines got a lot better and theres value now but idk if itll get better or worse from here (guy I want first got steamed now the moneys come against him) so leaving it for now but I do like the current price.

In another spot it's ability vs injury so will be watching that closely too.
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Old 02-08-2015, 08:27 AM   #443
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Re: Esport Betting?

As much as I like sOs, he's not at his best shape and he's playing against the opponent who ruined this season for him (Curious beat him 2 times in GSL qualifiers and one time in SSL's, all of them 2-1). I will bet if curious gets about +155
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Old 02-08-2015, 01:57 PM   #444
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Re: Esport Betting?

I agree w that post fwiw although as a Jinair fan im probably not going to bet against them so I can enjoy it as a fan.

I think Curious is a small dog at most here although sOs in his prime would crush him

I do think the -150/+128 line is sharpish for the overall match though as Startale dont have any strong anti Z players for Rogue except Life who they dont want to risk vs a ZvZ specialist and cure sos maru and rogue can all beat life 40%+ of the time, I think Life needs 2 wins for Startale to have a chance, and Jinair will only field sOs as a protoss probably so Leenock's amazing ZvP isnt as useful as it is vs some teams, Bomber is out of form and I doubt Curious gets more than 1 win
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Old 02-08-2015, 04:37 PM   #445
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Re: Esport Betting?

Dream -137 vs Solar. Still available if anyone wants it. There is a chance the line map improve though as Solar is the bigger name player and Dream's recent amazing form has mostly flown under the radar.

Dream's TvZ is really, really underrated right now. It might be the best TvZ in the world too soon to tell. He demolished Solar 3-1 not long ago. Solar is in a slump. Meta is balanced slightly towards T in TvZ.

That said he's been bet up and down from -137 to -152 after opening at -142, I got a bit on at -138 and a bit on at -137.

Game isn't for a couple weeks, but I think Dream is more like a -160 favourite here.

Hoping theres livebetting for Proleague tonight should be some value spots inbetween matches.
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Old 02-09-2015, 02:49 PM   #446
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Re: Esport Betting?

opening lines for jinair/cj disappointing
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Old 02-10-2015, 12:43 AM   #447
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Re: Esport Betting?

Jinair in to -158 so i've decided to take it as I cap them at about -170. It opened at -191, went out to -202ish, then in to -158, Rogue/Hush line has been moving in both directions too

Tonight's official play is JinAir -158. Only other pending bet is Dream -137 vs Solar in Code S.

Minor value spot imo. Becomes a major value spot at better than -150, is +EV until -170ish. My maxbet moved the line to -171, but there's been some minor CJ steam today so it might be value at some point. I won't add more unless it drops below -150 though. Wouldn't consider line movement to be suspicious unless CJ became outright favourites by a decent margin, they did finish higher in the regular season after all.
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Old 02-10-2015, 04:28 PM   #448
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Re: Esport Betting?

43-22 +12.35u overall

Jinair -158 is a win

44-22 +13.35u overall
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Old 02-10-2015, 04:32 PM   #449
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Re: Esport Betting?

SKT -136 Jinair +116 for the final. First match not announced yet and it matters a lot so holding off for now.
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Old 02-11-2015, 09:04 AM   #450
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Re: Esport Betting?

Meanwhile, MMA goes 4-0 in his group beating Dark and Inno 2-0, who would've thought.

Had 0.5 units on him at +240 but honestly though he would never get out of this group.
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