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Old 01-29-2015, 07:26 AM   #376
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

And Myungsik wins 2-0.

This could be interesting.
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Old 01-29-2015, 08:02 AM   #377
cityburke
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Re: Esport Betting?

Goddam it. I didn't realise the price moved that far and went pretty heavy on rogue for me. This is getting ridiculous.
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Old 01-29-2015, 08:03 AM   #378
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

I had Myungsik @ +230...

Unfortunately, i didnt place it on pinnacle so i dont know if they graded this bet yet or not.
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Old 01-29-2015, 09:47 AM   #379
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Re: Esport Betting?

And to make it out of a group, Rogue 2-0'd Myungsik in two easy games.

Reminds me that of the Innovation-hero groupstage where 'interesting' line movement was present as well.
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Old 01-29-2015, 11:37 AM   #380
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ive lost interest in esports after all this , not sure if its worth to keep betting for now
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Old 01-29-2015, 12:31 PM   #381
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

I dont bet on pinnacle, but my Myungsik win at nitrogen got graded, so most likely the bet wasnt voided anywhere. Not sure if they just missed it or just decided that its legit. Either way, the +230 underdog dropping to -110 in 10-5 minutes before the start is anything but standard.
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Old 01-29-2015, 01:39 PM   #382
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Re: Esport Betting?

myungsik did own him in proleague this week though so it is somewhat understandable, its unusual and id say semi conclusive if it got to -200 for myungsik but getting to evens when myungsiks in good form and was generally considered the sharp side early int a huge deal

havent seen the games yet ill watch them when i get a chance and comment more
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:15 PM   #383
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Re: Esport Betting?

Cant fully agree here, Rogue considered to be a better player by anyone. After his lost to Myungsik in a proleague in a bo1 i watched the line and it dropped from +230 to +200 or so and eventually went back to a little over +200.

Today i checked the line again and i think it was about +220, but then right before the start it dropped to -110, i mean thats at least somewhat weird in my book.

It was the opening of the groupstage too, so line changing based on players group performance is ruled out, obviously.

Keep in mind that i had myungsik @+230 and will gladly accept my win, but still.

Interestingly enough, he won 2-0 in a way that i did not expect him to. No cheeses or all-ins.
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Old 01-30-2015, 12:02 AM   #384
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Re: Esport Betting?

I'll watch the games later in the week but it doesn't shock me that much that some people could consider Myungsik a fav after PL this week and -110 isnt outlandish, if he was bet in to -250 its another story - I mean Flash regularly closes at -190 vs guys he's actually +100 against

Pretty crazy if the money is all last minute but the big steam does usually come at the end and isnt always right. Did anything unusual happen during the games?
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Old 01-30-2015, 09:12 AM   #385
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by alexo18 View Post
Ive lost interest in esports after all this , not sure if its worth to keep betting for now
pretty much this unfortunately
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Old 01-30-2015, 09:30 AM   #386
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Re: Esport Betting?

Could be value on some PL matches this week

Interested in the openers on SKT, Dream, JinAir, Dark, Bomber (could be closing line instead since its flash, expect him to be a dog), Leenock as a dog, Startale if dogs which they should be, Trap, Cure, Yoda and Losira. Potentially Yonghwa too if he opens as a dog which is possible. Prime/MVP could have value on either side depending where the lines open and the +1.5 for either team or over 4.5 games is tempting there.

I mean the lines could open somewhere I dont expect and the value is on the other side of everything but these are the ones I think might open with value.

Looking at the lineups ill go with

Startale vs KT goes to ace match, comes down to Life vs Zest to see who makes the playoffs.
Jinair beat Samsung 3-1; either Rogue or sOs is the one who loses.
SKT beat CJ 3-1 (Hero wins for CJ)
MVP vs Prime goes to ace match

On overs/under 4.5s I think I like overs on MVP/Prime and Startale/KT and unders on the other two but prob wont bet any of them.

really hoping I get some of the teams/players I like at closeish to evens or any of the three i said id like as a dog as decent dogs - i left off obvious stuff like hero over sorry as i assume he'll be -250 or whatever, stuck to stuff that should open at better than -200 and should be closer to evens
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Old 01-30-2015, 03:28 PM   #387
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Re: Esport Betting?

I see your point Swoop. But you are assuming that matchfixers will always remain stupid and will bet the line into the ground. I think its not such a wild theory that after having a couple of their bets voided they would've adjusted a little bit.

I still think that there was something weird about that match, i find it hard to believe that some sharp money suddenly "discovered" this line a couple of minutes before the start and moved it from about +200 to -110. When in fact, Myungsik was availible for taking at +200 +230 range for over 24 hours.

But since no one cares, i will forget about it and wont mention it again. However, i can recommend keeping this match in mind just incase something like that will keep happening over and over.
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Old 01-30-2015, 09:58 PM   #388
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah its def worth keeping in mind
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Old 01-31-2015, 12:27 PM   #389
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Re: Esport Betting?

Two very clear Proleague plays this week

Yoda -120 vs Marineking and Trap -130 vs Hurricane. Yoda is play of the week by far. Marinekings TvT is awful and he's on life tilt at the moment when he plays tvt and tvz. Yoda is in good form. Trap is also a bigger fav vs Hurricane imo esp w Jinairs season on the line and despite nearly beating Innovation last week Hurricane did not look good.

Fired both, and really like the Yoda one especially will add a lot more if similar price is available or keep my 1.5u if not. Have 1.5u or so on both but prefer the Yoda spot.

A pile of other spots are borderline bettable but breakevenish will post if any of them improve to profitable once ive got my action on.

I count 7 other lines im likely to take if line improves even a little bit but will keep them to myself for now as it may influence movement this early and I want lines to get better not worse
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Old 01-31-2015, 08:30 PM   #390
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Re: Esport Betting?

http://www.esports.gg/looking-at-the...s-by-category/
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Old 02-01-2015, 06:05 AM   #391
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Re: Esport Betting?

None of the lines moving much, Yoda vs Marineking and Trap vs Hurricane both seem sharper now although part of that line move was my bet. Yoda has def been hit a few times though.
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Old 02-01-2015, 10:32 AM   #392
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Re: Esport Betting?

Not going to post them for the thread officially but put small sweats on MMA +8113 and Yoda +12168 for 0.15u each to win Code S. I particularly like the Yoda one. It's also fun because whatever its a small partial unit on each to potentially have a sweat to win 10+u if they go deep. Just to clarify not going to officially post either towards my record due to the loltastic variance involved and obv if i'm up 100+ units because of 1 bet it doesnt really count, I want to grind to at least +50u by the end of the proleague season the normal way.

I think both are +EV at the price, playing their A games they are live vs anyone and with 16 left I don't think they're 5-8x less likely than average to win it than an 'average' player remaining.

Could be value on Maru, CJ Hero, Innovation, Rogue, Rain and a few others in Code S at their prices but I expect better spots before the round of 8 value wise on them as their prices won't get that much worse generally speaking as mostly the weaker players will bust r16. As weird as it sounds I think Yoda is the most +EV bet available of the ro16 to win Code S futures. He has to be +235ish to advance in each round for the bet to be breakeven, he's definitely better than that in the ro16 even if he draws a tough group and there are some potential groups he's a flip to get out of, then from there it depends on who he draws but he isn't worse than +350ish against anyone in Code S imo and there are a few players he's a favourite over and even more that hes better than +150 against
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Old 02-02-2015, 05:22 AM   #393
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Re: Esport Betting?

Startaleyoe +1.5 -158 and jinair -261. Expect st game to go to ace all four games are flippy i quite like all four dogs as dogs due to that. Jinairs season is on the line and samsung are below full strength. Even without maru jinair should win easily and if they dont and miss playoffs that would be a pathetic failure. At the end of the day theyre favs in all 4 games and are playing for a playoff spot and samsung are resting dear and solar and playing for nothing. Have to bet despite the price. Those two and cure are my three plays today. If anyone likes any dog in kt startale i think those lines are all fine too.
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Old 02-02-2015, 05:35 AM   #394
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Re: Esport Betting?

TY was at -400 vs Curious earlier, and now the line is off. Weird stuff happening again.
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Old 02-02-2015, 06:14 AM   #395
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Re: Esport Betting?

And now back to -250, false alarm I guess
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Old 02-02-2015, 08:17 AM   #396
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Startaleyoe +1.5 -158 and jinair -261. Expect st game to go to ace all four games are flippy i quite like all four dogs as dogs due to that. Jinairs season is on the line and samsung are below full strength. Even without maru jinair should win easily and if they dont and miss playoffs that would be a pathetic failure. At the end of the day theyre favs in all 4 games and are playing for a playoff spot and samsung are resting dear and solar and playing for nothing. Have to bet despite the price. Those two and cure are my three plays today. If anyone likes any dog in kt startale i think those lines are all fine too.
Holy **** I am a genius. I said I like all 4 dogs in ST/KT and all 4 win. Hope some of you took them even though I didn't and just took the ST +1.5 line

Startale +1.5 is a win, gl to Jinair and Cure now
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Old 02-02-2015, 08:18 AM   #397
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by grubby4tw View Post
TY was at -400 vs Curious earlier, and now the line is off. Weird stuff happening again.
Not that weird just bad steam. It happens more than you'd think its just if it continues past a point without normalising it can be weird.

I def would have taken Curious +300 or w/e had I known though
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Old 02-02-2015, 09:02 AM   #398
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Re: Esport Betting?

dumb of trap to throw away a lead

1-1 -0.3u so far w jinair pending. 1-1 but all hugely favourable mus for them from here and it would have been over if trap didnt throw a lead
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Old 02-02-2015, 09:14 AM   #399
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Re: Esport Betting?

Adding Dark -155 for tomorrow
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Old 02-02-2015, 09:35 AM   #400
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Re: Esport Betting?

How do they pick Rogue over Maru. Still favoured but we have a sweat
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