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Old 01-27-2015, 08:47 AM   #351
SwoopAE
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Re: Esport Betting?

oh ffs how the **** do superior players keep dying to myungsik's cheese

this is just embarrassing for jinair. hopefully they can rally and close it out but sos vs creator in theory is the best game for prime even if sos is a small fav

so dumb i almost hedged a bit at +470 on prime after the first game when market overreacted

jinair had better hold gonna be so tilted if they find a way to lose to prime

i do think maru can win the ace match against anyone from prime tho
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Old 01-27-2015, 08:48 AM   #352
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Re: Esport Betting?

Lol Myungsik wins. Had him +180 as a slight value bet (he is more like a +165 in my opinion in a bo1 here).

I feel the upset incoming. Creator can win a PvP.

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Old 01-27-2015, 08:53 AM   #353
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by MantridNinja View Post
I am aware of the unsiege. However Yoda's position was potentially way stronger, his early micro blunder costed his a lot of scv's.

Cure had the game locked pretty much with that kind of scv lead. To make things worse for Yoda he totally rekt his expensive medivac drop with a mine that did 0 damage.

I disagree that you put Cure as that much of a favorite, but only slightly. You might as well be right and i could be wrong here.
yeah you're probably right - cure is a fav imo but probably not that much of one.

sos had better bring his A game today, JinAir need their ace to perform.
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Old 01-27-2015, 09:06 AM   #354
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Re: Esport Betting?

wtf sos what the **** was that

I hope jinair drop him from the lineup in favour of trap for next week for that game

0-1 -2.8u for the day, can't help but feel we got incredibly unlucky here as several jinair players played awfully
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Old 01-27-2015, 09:13 AM   #355
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Re: Esport Betting?

What a disappointing past two weeks in proleague. Prime win, but it's more disgraceful performances by KT and JinAir that set their wins up. Yoda and Myungsik playing well though. I actually think on merit sOs should lose his spot in the team to Trap after that performance despite his history as an ace level player.

37-19 +11.17u

0-1 -2.8u today

37-20 +8.37u overall

Looks like we've regressed towards the mean a bit after being up 15u early.

Hopefully we can get some value spots next week, took a beating tonight given I had a multiunit play on JinAir. So gross I could have hedged to freeroll after game 1 as well when Prime went out to +470 although I do think that was about the true line after 1 game. Still think with these lineups that JinAir is at least a -300 fav, just sucks this is the 1 time that they win all 3 of the games they're live in.

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Old 01-27-2015, 09:14 AM   #356
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Re: Esport Betting?

I am pretty much breakeven for the past 2 days. Hurricane and Leenock ruined it for me.

Saved by Yoda/Myungsik and Life winning both of his matches.
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Old 01-27-2015, 09:42 AM   #357
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah i'm down quite a bit this week obviously, minor plays roughly broke even but got owned on the major plays for the most part.

On to the next one I guess, hopefully there's value next week. JinAir vs Samsung with JinAir's finals spot on the line and KT vs Startale with both teams spots potentially on the line should be fun and SKT vs CJ will be interesting too. Prime should beat MVP if they continue to show up in the form they have been over the last two weeks although on paper MVP can put together a line up to beat them, a lot will depend on matchups. Prime want Myungsik to draw a zerg (Losira?), Yoda to draw Marineking and Creator to draw a protoss ideally. MVP will want Losira to draw a Zerg if Prime fields one and MKP to draw Creator or Myungsik. I could see this being anywhere from Prime -120 to MVP -150 depending on who draws who in the matchups.
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Old 01-27-2015, 10:21 AM   #358
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Re: Esport Betting?

Not sure for how long MVP will contunie using MarineKing. I missed the game when he won Dear so probably will want to get a vod to see it with my own eyes. Seems like somehow he has TvP figured out even against a way better players. Its quite rare to see a player sucking so bad at everything but 1 matchup.

But overall he is tilting so much and it was hillarious to watch him swearing in his booth for like 10 seconds in a match against Life.


One thing that keeps coming back to me is how Hurricane's line went from +180 to +150 and then to like +190 again closer to a start. I am not too much of a line watcher and dont know how standard it is, but then the match itself looks like a huge throw from both sides.

At first it looks like Innovation does not want to win and just throws the medivacs full of units for nothing against blink, but then Hurricane executes the multi-throw of the year and gives the game back. How often do you see a protoss with a 50+ supply lead with storm/colossus losing to a terran, outisde of some random ladder gold league?

Perphaps i am getting too paranoid here, but with the backhistory of the last week, its something i will keep in mind.
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Old 01-27-2015, 10:25 AM   #359
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Re: Esport Betting?

There was nothing suspicious about the line movement or match for Inno/Hurricane both players just played badly and Hurricane played worse

It wasn't even in the 3 biggest line movements today.
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Old 01-27-2015, 10:40 AM   #360
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Re: Esport Betting?

Probably nothing, i guess i am just affected but the level of badness that was demonstrated in a pro game.

Also, looks like we wont get any further info or statements from Kespa. The public interest is also gone down and in 1-2 weeks nobody will even care or remember something happened.

More and more people thinking it was just a "mistake caused by a weird algorytm" and everything is fine. Which is kinda ******ed in my opinion, but whatever.
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Old 01-27-2015, 01:40 PM   #361
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Re: Esport Betting?

To anyone wondering how throw of the year looks like :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14EzuTkMzh4#t=1153

Up in supply, up 15 workers, up a base, a colossi tech is ready.
(Heard that Artosis was losing his mind in chat, looking at the game, and so did i. I never saw anyone decent, let alone a korean 'pro' play like that)


Looking back at the vod though, its now obvious that he is just an unexprienced player who got super excited about taking down the "star", forgot the basics, and choked.

So whatever. But the more peculiar thing is how uncharacteristically bad Innovation played this game, given the quality of the opponent. Will be interesting to see him next week against CJentus.
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Old 01-27-2015, 09:57 PM   #362
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Re: Esport Betting?

lol, that wasn't even that big of a throw.

Artosis is playing too much Hearthstone lately if he's puzzled by this game.

Basically what happens there is that he had 1 unfortunate last blink where he got hit by widow mine and couple of marauders so he couldn't try to finish the game and had to go back because pure stalker army is just terrible against bio with stim and medivacs.

At that point we have
15 workers advantage - nope, he only had that for a brief moment (at the moment of blink attack he was actually behind 8 workers and 2 mules) + there were 3 orbitals so that's even economy
up a base - nope, 3rd orbital was just in base, it got down quite quickly

colossus tech ready - so what? he can't attack without upgrades and inno had starport for vikings already.

supply advantage? here we get to a situation where terran continues to build workers and in 2 minutes he's even with workers + 3 mules. Protoss didn't have upgrades which he absolutely needs and should always be ahead of terran. So Hurricane starts thermal lance, zealot charge, extra gateways, extra forge, +2 attack, +1 armor, starts colossus production and need to transition to templar archives.

Meanwhile, Innovation basically has his production set up and just starts pumping units and quickly surpasses protoss in supply because he already had raxes, starport, 3 orbitals etc.

This is a throw only if you don't understand dynamics of this matchup, Hurricane didn't have a huge advantage at any point of this game because he couldn't attack and Inno had infrastructure. If Hurricane had MSC with timewarp at the time of blink attack he could've done much more damage and maybe even finish a game straight away, but just supply/workers doesn't mean anything if he's behind in tech (which he was, colossus tech is nothing without upgrades, especially armor)

Games like this are why I'm so happy each time they put live betting on, because it can look like 1 player has huge advantage and odds get low on him while in reality other player is actually just fine and has pretty nice chances.
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Old 01-27-2015, 10:26 PM   #363
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
tl;dr trying to say that killing 29 scvs while sitting on 3 bases with robo+bay is not that much of an advantage pvt


Quote:
other player is actually just fine and has pretty nice chances.
After reading such a deep analysis i'd even say he was a massive favorite.

Last edited by MantridNinja; 01-27-2015 at 10:52 PM.
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Old 01-28-2015, 01:43 AM   #364
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Re: Esport Betting?

I mean, I can't teach you a game in 1 post, but go and watch that game again.
at 11:00 worker count was 46 probes and 54 scvs, after that attack it was 51 probes vs 35 scvs + 2 mules which is closer to 51 vs 45.
3-4 minutes later and they're even on workers + 3 mules.

You are talking about killing scvs like that's only thing there is in economy but it's not. If Hurricane sacrificed his economy early on to get that attack faster then his economical advantage will be smaller later on.
btw.robo+bay isn't key tech there. Robo+bay becomes strong only with forge upgrades.
Marine has 6dmg, Zealot has 100+50hp with 1 armor.
Zealot takes 5dmg per shot which means he dies in 30shots.
If zealot has 1 armor upgrade advantage he takes 4dmg per shot which means he takes 20% less dmg. That's why you see all those double forge builds. In this game it was the opposite, inno had +1 attack before hurricane had +1 armor.

so on and so on, just go and watch that game again and keep your eyes on the production tab, everything will become more clear, how inno starts producing units, hurricane starts his upgrades and game evens out, I mean those are really basics of blink builds.
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Old 01-28-2015, 03:55 AM   #365
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Re: Esport Betting?

I already told you that the depths of your knowledge convinced me, thanks for the insight.

But i am somewhat interested how would you weight odds of both players to win the game after 13:00 or so?
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Old 01-28-2015, 12:21 PM   #366
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Re: Esport Betting?

I'd say about 1.65 - 2.2 for hurricane, he had a lead but not a huge one. Deadwing cross position spawn play a huge role in these situations because by the time Hurricane gets to Innovations base he can produce 8 vikings.
I'd never expect Hurricane to take such terrible fight as he did at 19min but I wouldn't call it a huge throw, not against Innovation.


anyway, does anyone follow IEM Taipei? They only put opening matches on Pinnacle, but they put all on egamingbets.com.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft...Taipei#Stage_2
First 2 groups are quite bad for betting but other 2 groups and playoffs should be quite nice.
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Old 01-28-2015, 12:38 PM   #367
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Re: Esport Betting?

I took Sen and Polt, the odds are way off imo.

Also, pretty decent upset today in GSL, with MMA knocking down Dear to code A and advancing instead of him. If anyone feels like watching a vod i can recommend checking the bo3 between Dark and Dear (game 3 especially), and Dear vs Seed (even though i dislike PvP, it was entertaining to watch Dear outplaying Seed with better mechanics and decision making, playing from behind in both maps).

Its quite sad to see him drop down to code A, but his PvT needs some work.

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Old 01-28-2015, 10:26 PM   #368
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Re: Esport Betting?

Sen +305 seems with small value but will take it for 1 unit.
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Old 01-28-2015, 10:56 PM   #369
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Re: Esport Betting?

Im in a live tourney but glgl on bets might join later if i bust
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Old 01-29-2015, 12:30 AM   #370
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Re: Esport Betting?

http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2015...-match-fixing/
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Old 01-29-2015, 01:10 AM   #371
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Re: Esport Betting?

If someone wants to see how throw looks like just watch Polt vs Sen game 2
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Old 01-29-2015, 01:28 AM   #372
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Re: Esport Betting?

Link? Minute?
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:06 AM   #373
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Re: Esport Betting?

Vods will be on esl channel I guess, It's still live.

In group A herO proved to be strongest player and 1 of favorites to win this tournament. Hyun was pretty good against Sen, but lost against herO which was expected.
Hyun also wrecked Polt who is completely out of form.

also Hyun is apparently in CJ house these days so he might be getting into some good form.
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Old 01-29-2015, 05:31 AM   #374
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Re: Esport Betting?

Meh apparently Polt took game1 and lost 2 in a row, had him close +280. Could've taken a +1,5 spread, but i usually dont do those. And ye, Hyun's form looks better than usual.

Starleague group C starting soon with Rogue-Myungsik and Dear-Gumiho. Have Myungsik at +220. Its assumed that Rogue is "much better' but why does it matter when he can just allin and kill him a decent % of the time.

Last edited by MantridNinja; 01-29-2015 at 05:40 AM.
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Old 01-29-2015, 06:44 AM   #375
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Re: Esport Betting?

A pretty big steam coming on Myungsik vs Rogue.

From +220 to +140 now.

Edit: keeps dropping, +130 now

Edit#2 : +110... Fixed match again?

Edit#3: -110.... no comment

Last edited by MantridNinja; 01-29-2015 at 07:00 AM.
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