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Old 01-25-2015, 12:07 PM   #301
SwoopAE
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Re: Esport Betting?

Unless there are suspicious betting lines a player playing bad means nothing.
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Old 01-25-2015, 12:22 PM   #302
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Re: Esport Betting?

first two bets of the week

CJ Hero -142 vs Flash (risky to bet this early when Flash always gets late steam but I cant see price improving much more even though its flash; will just add more on Hero if he gets to -120 or w/e as long as line move is normal). Flash is in a slump and beating bboongbboong is leagues away from beating Hero; even in a bo1 I think hero's like -155 atm and if price comes in ill just add more units.

Losira -108 vs Curious, in amazing zvz form should be a slightly bigger fav here, like -125 to -130 or something

I have 2u on both just for the record although for purpose of thread all bets are single unit.

Im still hoping for a nice price on Jinair if theres Prime steam and Classic and Dear aren't quite bettable but all three could be if price improves.

If Innovation's game wasnt suspicious last week i'd like the SKT line but with him as their ace as well i'm going to stay away. No bets on Innovation or San matches unless we like the other side unless Kespa releases a statement that they've investigated and cleared them or unless Pinnacle release more details explaining the unusual line movements. Better safe than sorry there.
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Old 01-25-2015, 12:32 PM   #303
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Unless there are suspicious betting lines a player playing bad means nothing.
Yep, trying to deduce something just from the games wont get you anywhere. A huge % of all losses look like throws, thats just the nature of the game.
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Old 01-25-2015, 12:37 PM   #304
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Re: Esport Betting?

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first two bets of the week

Losira -108 vs Curious, in amazing zvz form should be a slightly bigger fav here, like -125 to -130 or something
Agree with this. Losira actually opened almost at +120 or slightly less, should be good spot overall.
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Old 01-26-2015, 03:11 AM   #305
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Re: Esport Betting?

CJ price has gotten good, adding CJ Entus +136 vs KT (single unit will add more if it rises)

Pending

Hero -142
CJ +136
Losira -108
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Old 01-26-2015, 05:44 AM   #306
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Re: Esport Betting?

My picks for proleague that aren't necessarily all being bet

CJ-KT goes to Ace match and then CJ wins 3-2 (hero + one of the three CJ dogs win on average, KT don't play Stats in ace match despite other 3 guys being out of form and KT loses ace match, with CJ playing Hero for the first time in an ace match this season). CJ Entus win 3-2 in a minor upset.

MVP take a 2-0 lead against Startale then if departure doesn't upset Leenock they manage to throw it away with Marineking crying in the booth after he makes an unforced error to lose the game to Life. Startale come back to win 3-2 with probably Life or maybe Leenock winning the ace match against Hero or Marineking, so result is either 3-0 MVP or 3-2 Startale with the latter being slightly more likely. I've actually added a 0.2u parlay on MVP to take a 2-0 lead then lose 3-2 just by parlaying the five necessary results at +9xx. I don't think MVP are smart enough to play Losira as their ace in anticipation of Life and even if they do life has solid ZvZ but it's definitely MVP's best chance to win the ace match.

SKT beat Samsung 3-1 if Innovation lines don't do anything suspicious with Dear or Bravo getting the win for Samsung.

Innovation loses in suspicious fashion to Hurricane or in the ace match if the lines do anything suspicious which may lead to an SKT loss hence me not playing SKT this week despite the price being good in theory.

Jin Air beat Prime as expected, and whether the match becomes bettable or not depends on which way the line moves (I wouldn't be shocked to get JinAir at -290 in which case i'd take them, or if they drift towards -400 we leave it alone and don't touch Prime until +500)
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Old 01-26-2015, 06:08 AM   #307
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Re: Esport Betting?

Pinnacle cancelling the bets on San vs Dark is just ridiculous. I see they're treating this as guilty until proven innocent, and simply b/c some guy pounded dark into oblivion they determine it has to be cheating. If it is cheating then pinny has to contact kespa asap and get to the bottom of it. As of right now until that's done I think everyone here can safely assume you aren't allowed to drop 100k on an sc2 match and collect when you win that bet, even though you obviously are allowed to at increasingly worse odds per bet submission (but you're getting freerolled hard).

I really would like to know what I am missing here. Was it really just pinnacle cancelling wagers because their system set off red flags? How on earth do they just screw over that person wagering 100k without a full detailed investigation. If he really was cheating with San then I think that's great that they're creating a "fair" betting environment, but from where I see things the only "fair" thing is pinnacle avoiding a ~30k loss on this game (through various bets ranging from -125 to -400). Do they seriously think they were protecting their customers? The customers being protected here wagered pennies compared to the Dark bettor, lol.

Pinny has been shaky to say the least the past few years with cashout issues and now demanding rollovers on deposits. I really want to see a proper investigation, and either pay out the Dark wager or press some sort of charges on the Dark punter. IIRC, a few years ago at the WSOP pinnacle had a prop bet involving whether or not a woman would make the "final table" of the WSOP main event which paid nice odds if you selected "yes", and when that fiasco blew up it took a lot of bad PR on 2+2 and various other websites to force pinnacle to pay out both sides. Conversely, this situation is being swept under the rug and it's not fair at all.
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Old 01-26-2015, 06:38 AM   #308
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Re: Esport Betting?

At the end of the day ive made thousands of bets (as have others here) and have never seen anything as suspicious as the line movement on San vs Dark to the degree of me emailing Pinny BEFORE the match with my suspicions that something was unusual despite being about to make additional bets with a theoretical 100%+ ROI on San. The next day the same thing happens (to a slightly lesser degree) on Innovation vs Super game 1. We've never seen anything like either spot, ever, on thousands of bets. While it might not be match fixing it is at the very least market manipulation and match fixing is the most likely outcome especially when the game results support the crazy line moves.

He's certainly not conclusively guilty but if I had to bet my life on 'San threw the match' vs 'San didn't throw the match' and I was literally killed if I was wrong, I would guess he threw it. I can't be certain, but I am certain that something underhanded took place because the market was definitely manipulated.

As bettors all we can do is hope Kespa investigates but I trust Pinnacle's algorithms, they've always done right by me over six figures of wagers on esports and I was on Innovation ML (which won despite the game 1 anomalies) and San ML (which lost) in the cancelled bets so I chalk it up as variance and move on unless the suspicious line movements keep happening. I trust Pinnacle's read on this and don't see any reason other seasoned sportsbettors shouldn't. Obviously if this continues happening though it would be a massive problem for esports betting, we'll see if it does or not.

As Pinnacle have said the amount of money in question here is literally pennies to them, I completely believe they took the actions because they believe the game was fixed or manipulated and wanted to protect their customers. They're putting their reputation on this im sure their data analysis is sound. When you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains however unlikely must be the truth. It is impossible the line movement was 'normal'. We can't say what happened but something did.
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Old 01-26-2015, 06:42 AM   #309
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Re: Esport Betting?

Hero vs Flash up now, hopefully get get both him and Losira today, we def get both more often than neither.
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Old 01-26-2015, 06:55 AM   #310
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Re: Esport Betting?

So far as expected, 1-1 in CJ KT and Hero wins. KT are very small favs in the next 2 but it should still usually split 1-1 on average and IF Coach Park fires Hero in the ace match, and thats a big if for imo the worst coach in Korea, he should be favoured with his form this week for CJ. At +136 it's def an ok spot to be in, CJ are prob like +105 or something at the moment

Keeping an eye on the Liquid Hero and Leenock lines in case either improve for later on.
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Old 01-26-2015, 06:57 AM   #311
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Re: Esport Betting?

Interesting the late money comes on Byul; nothing out of the ordinary but from +116 to +100ish

Hopefully he can get it done.

Casters split 4-2 to Byul, 3-0 for Korean casters and 1-2 for English

Hopefully TY plays as badly as he did against Guilty but its a diff MU
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:00 AM   #312
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Re: Esport Betting?

I've seen plenty of people posting that they think it's a sick freeroll for pinnacle. They haven't linked a conspiracy between San and the punter and it's the same "algorithm" line. The people want clarity. If I placed wagers on San then I'd want to know what really happened as well because I don't want an unresolved situation like this to occur in a future game where I place even more money on. Saying that this is pennies to them may be true, but in regards to their +/- on specifically Starcraft 2 E-sports betting I highly doubt that is the case. This most certainly determines their +/- for the month ainec. You said you bet a few hundred on San, well I'd wager to believe you were among the heaviest bettors on that particular game with the heaviest obviously being the un-named account(s) that moved dark to -400. This 100k wager freeroll by pinnacle is unjust at this very moment.
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:03 AM   #313
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Re: Esport Betting?

they've said they'll cooperate with a kespa investigation and yes, i absolutely want to see an investigation occur and reach a conclusion one way or the other. Their statement should have been more detailed. We should see a statement on Innovation/Super game 1 too esp with the innovation/hot6 cup statements made by that guy who said there was suspicious line moves in his losses to sos and hero and then he played weird etc.

Also I doubt this game kills their monthly esports profit I think you underestimate their volume.
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:10 AM   #314
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well since I am wrong about their volume then what is their volume roughly? You say the 100k wager is not going to kill their monthly e-sports profits but I've never seen high betting limits allowed on SC2. What exactly are we talking about here?
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:17 AM   #315
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Re: Esport Betting?

Not looking as good for CJ now, Bbyong vs Stats is going to be tough.

Stats in to -111 now, I think hes more like -130 but not going to bet it becuse I have a bet on CJ and it takes my sweat away
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:33 AM   #316
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Well since I am wrong about their volume then what is their volume roughly? You say the 100k wager is not going to kill their monthly e-sports profits but I've never seen high betting limits allowed on SC2. What exactly are we talking about here?
You do realise that a 100k wager at 1.2 only equates to a 20k loss for pinny?! Those are peanuts for them.
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:36 AM   #317
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Re: Esport Betting?

aaand thats why i should trust my analysis and just bet stats even though it would have taken my sweat away

1-1 0u for the day so far (Hero W CJ L), Losira -108 Pending.
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:36 AM   #318
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yes I am well aware of that. The 100k "wager" to win ~30k or whatever it equated to on the Dark punter. I wrote that a few posts ago fyi
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:40 AM   #319
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Re: Esport Betting?

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You do realise that a 100k wager at 1.2 only equates to a 20k loss for pinny?! Those are peanuts for them.
I asked swoopae a few posts back about what the pinnacle volume roughly is for starcraft 2 specifically. Pinnacle's volume and handle on major markets is well known to be gigantic while starcraft 2 is very small. a ~30k loss on sc2 would seemly affect their monthly profit on starcraft 2 considering betting limits hover around $100 a match for most of the betting period. Do you not understand the difference between them being down on Starcraft 2 wagering versus being down overall across all sports combined?
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:41 AM   #320
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Re: Esport Betting?

So 30k will make them void bets while they are taking 100k on sides for the super bowl?
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:44 AM   #321
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Re: Esport Betting?

Did you even read my post? read the last sentence booloo.
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:50 AM   #322
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well if you somehow have insight how they differentiate between the sports, and how they will suddenly care about 30k$ more than their market position in esports betting, then please share. I'm not buying it yet.
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Old 01-26-2015, 07:52 AM   #323
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Re: Esport Betting?

added some hero -150 vs pet, pets form is atrocious not gonna officially post it itt since its breakevenish but its ok for a sweat
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Old 01-26-2015, 08:06 AM   #324
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Well if you somehow have insight how they differentiate between the sports, and how they will suddenly care about 30k$ more than their market position in esports betting, then please share. I'm not buying it yet.
I don't know how they differentiate from sports. I am using logic here from the perspective of people who are hired to set lines for e-sports versus major markets. If you are being paid a salary to specifically set lines for starcraft 2, then your career is in balance if this 30k loss goes into effect. The person who sets these lines and the people around him have it in their best interest to show a +$$ month for starcraft 2 wagering otherwise they will look like they aren't doing their job well. Obviously, pinnacle has billions or whatever but like all people of big business they want to be able to show positive expectation throughout all of their markets which are offered. No sportsbook likes being nickle and dimed by nits exploiting their small market lines. If people are betting $10 and $30 on random starcraft 2 games and then some psychopath shows up and fires 100k to win ~30k on ****ing Dark in a best of 1 then you best be sure most sportsbooks and even possibly pinnacle would try to find any angle to void that winning wager without totally breaking the rules/outright stealing.

Pinnacle reacted in the proper way by suspending the betting on that game, but like swoopae said we hope that this isn't the end and a full investigation will take place very soon along with updates for all the bettors out there.
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Old 01-26-2015, 08:20 AM   #325
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Re: Esport Betting?

Losira wins, great comeback after iffy start his ZvZ has been solid lately. They should use him as the ace if they get there as Startale is so Z heavy

2-1 +1u today
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