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Old 01-23-2015, 01:12 PM   #276
SwoopAE
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by Sabaneta View Post
You don't have your own database of line moves?
Feels like I should, right? But nope. I'm strictly a recreational sportsbettor who uses aligulac and logic/observation from watching matches to handicap. My recollections of where lines were at come from memory. I generally have a good idea of which players have a history of lines moving for/against them just based on refreshing lines in real time when I watch games and make bets.

I realise this is not optimal; but the bulk of my 'work' time goes in to playing poker. I'm happy with being a marginally profitable recreational sportsbettor for the time being.
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Old 01-23-2015, 01:13 PM   #277
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by visniak View Post
Thanks. I agree that's a very unusual, and theoretically profitable line. How long was the line up? I didn't realise it was so recent; I was thinking you meant last season. I missed watching the JinAir/ST game live and had just taken JinAir from memory (who lost) and one of their players who won (Cure maybe?) prior to the lines closing, but I didn't actually get to watch the match live. Makes sense why I didn't recall it then because the line wasn't like that the last time I saw it.
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Old 01-23-2015, 01:37 PM   #278
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Re: Esport Betting?

So some twitter dude claims my record is fake; wants to bet 10k on it. Seems to be ok with me having a day to go over my math and make sure there were no errors adding up record etc.

Cool.

Proposes Iowa! as an escrow. Can anyone ITT vouch for Iowa!/knows him irl and can get him on the phone/skype in person in the event that this guy actually goes through with escrowing him the money? Obviously need to avoid scams and angle shots over 0.01u here or the chance Iowa!'s 2p2 acct got hacked or whatever and the chance that this guy isn't full of **** is miniscule anyway but on the off chance I get a free 10k it's worth investigating I suppose since my record is legit (might be off by 0.1u or w/e due to math errors when adding from previous days, if we can agree to a suitable escrow and this dude is legit i'll double check all of my math to confirm my record, update the thread and we can proceed if he still claims it's false)

I did make an offer that we can book right now if he gives me 1u leeway for math errors which obv still makes me very profitable, which he declined which leads me to believe he's full of **** or angleshooting hoping i screwed up one of the average bet prices I posted or something which to be fair is quite likely that I was off by 0.02u or whatever somewhere in either direction due to updating while masstabling poker or whatever.

Would need to draw up a detailed contract of my specific claims to avoid angle shooting etc to book it if 10ks on the line. Have to go over my record with fine tooth comb make sure I don't miss anything etc. It's weird, this guy seems too eager to post for a bet i'll only ever post if i'm certain I win with objective judging and clear terms. I mean, if there's a nonzero chance I get a free 10k then whatever I guess. Only wasted half an hour of my time on it if he's full of it.

What an interesting few days. Not gonna derail thread any more over this weird twitter bet thing.

Should wake up to some interesting reading in the morning especially if pinnacle/kespa release statements.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 01-23-2015 at 01:44 PM.
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Old 01-23-2015, 01:47 PM   #279
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Thanks. I agree that's a very unusual, and theoretically profitable line. How long was the line up? I didn't realise it was so recent; I was thinking you meant last season. I missed watching the JinAir/ST game live and had just taken JinAir from memory (who lost) and one of their players who won (Cure maybe?) prior to the lines closing, but I didn't actually get to watch the match live. Makes sense why I didn't recall it then because the line wasn't like that the last time I saw it.
I placed this bet just before match. I was very cautious... I waited until I saw that Life will be playing with both hands . I don't know when line changed so much and haven't seen anything suspicious 2 hours before match.
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Old 01-23-2015, 02:01 PM   #280
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
So some twitter dude claims my record is fake; wants to bet 10k on it. Seems to be ok with me having a day to go over my math and make sure there were no errors adding up record etc.
haha you're mad if you think that people who make those claims that they would bet 10k against you actually have that kind of money. Probably some kid who can't get his head around all this.

That's also a reason why I'm so suspicious about all this, when I look at my stats, in last 6-7 months I've placed bets for >200k$ and have profit of about 20-25k$ and I'm just a guy who started to bet to make matches more interesting.
If someone with deep pockets and shady intentions figured that esports is gonna be a thing, nothing is out of question and everything needs to be carefully checked.
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Old 01-23-2015, 02:08 PM   #281
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah its pretty absurd im up like 10k over maybe 300k worth of bets over past two years, is it really that hard to believe someone would have a 3% roi in a niche market? (seperating other sports out out id guess 200k of the bets have been on esports for like 9k profit or something but i have no idea if need to go over my history - if i had to guess im up like 3k elections betting, down 2k on random sports and about breakeven on mma and up something like 8-10 in esports).

the odds we could ever a) agree to terms b) agree to an escrow and then c) actually escrow are so slim its absurd though but it was interesting so figured id mention it
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Old 01-23-2015, 02:16 PM   #282
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Re: Esport Betting?

I usually make most money on tournaments like IEM, Dreamhack etc. I feel like in a game like sc2 those who follow scene closely can really have an advantage on those kinds of tournaments because if some player really starts practicing a ton (for example like Bunny and Snute did last year) they can improve quite noticeably in 2-3 months. It is hard to see that improvement in stats if they play few matches but when they start playing you can see in their play that they are really good and then you have a chance to place bets on them throughout the tournament.
Probably most money out of all players I got was from betting on Trap when guy came to MLG and no one really knew him that well, but he showed some great skill early on so I just kept betting on his underdog odds and he went on to win that tournament.

That combination when player can become really good in a matter of 3-4 months + tournament format where player can play multiple matches in 2 days is something that you don't really see in many sports.
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Old 01-23-2015, 02:19 PM   #283
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Re: Esport Betting?

Ya if u watch a whole tournament u can get a feel beyond the raw stats for who's playing above their theoretical expectation

There are often PL team spot lines that are just way off too which feels lower variance than individual leagues to me as you have multiple matches to cap and average out to an overall line
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Old 01-23-2015, 03:31 PM   #284
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Re: Esport Betting?

Anyone betting on wcs? Some nice value there. Like Serral vs Harstem opened at +185 and Serral just wrecks him 3-0.

Lost a heromarine-mana bet though (barely 2-3), but also won Showtime +120 vs Lilbow 3:1 (in the most retarded game of starcraft i've ever seen)

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Old 01-23-2015, 06:33 PM   #285
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Re: Esport Betting?

Was directed to this thread from reddit lol, that's a first.

SwoopAE, is it possible that Pinnacle uses a weird algorithm in these niche markets that can potentially be manipulated easily and some people might have found out and are trying to exploit it? After all this would fit within their public statement that they made. Is there any type of precedent for this or w/e?
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Old 01-23-2015, 06:38 PM   #286
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by bbfg View Post
Was directed to this thread from reddit lol, that's a first.

SwoopAE, is it possible that Pinnacle uses a weird algorithm in these niche markets that can potentially be manipulated easily and some people might have found out and are trying to exploit it? After all this would fit within their public statement that they made. Is there any type of precedent for this or w/e?
I think the probability of this is really low. Its been what, like 5 years of them offering sc2 lines, and this is the first time something like that went off?

Plus, the matches themselfs look somewhat suspicious.

Also, what is the point of "manipulating the lines" like that, if you dont know the outcome? Do you really think someone is going to risk 5-6 figure numbers to "frame" players? Somewhat of an exotic hobby, if you ask me.
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Old 01-23-2015, 06:47 PM   #287
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by MantridNinja View Post
I think the probability of this is really low. Its been what, like 5 years of them offering sc2 lines, and this is the first time something like that went off?

Plus, the matches themselfs look somewhat suspicious.

Also, what is the point of "manipulating the lines" like that, if you dont know the outcome? Do you really think someone is going to risk 5-6 figure numbers to "frame" players? Somewhat of an exotic hobby, if you ask me.
What I mean with "easily manipulating lines" is that you could affect the line movement in a significant manner without making 5-6 figure number total bets by using some sort of exploit in the algorithm for niche games.

Obv sounds highly unlikely and a bit ridiculous but was just wondering this because just from reading the last few posts itt it seems like major line movements have been common lately which would have to mean a large number of players are involved which seems highly unlikely as well(but not impossible obv).

I guess it might be partial missinformation since the main accusations are limited to San vs Dark and Inno vs Super at the moment.
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Old 01-23-2015, 06:52 PM   #288
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Re: Esport Betting?

crazy situation. the bets they canceled 2day seems far more interesting/potentially scandalous.

do i understand this correctly: one of the best (or most popular?) SC players had a best out of 3 match. his line for the 2nd and 3rd games were -150ish, but the line for the 1st match was +150ish?

is there anything within the game (map or matchup or smthing) that made that 1st game different than the 2nd and 3rd?
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Old 01-23-2015, 06:59 PM   #289
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Re: Esport Betting?

Well, we know that there've been "a substantial amount of $$ for esports markets" placed on those matches.

And again, most of suspected games ended up in wins for the potential 'fixer', (for the exception of that life-maru match)

Currently the matches in question :

San-Dark
Inno-Super
Inno-Hero
Inno-sOs

and a couple of MKP hot6ix matches (pure uncormirmed speculation, but worth to keep in mind)
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Old 01-23-2015, 07:04 PM   #290
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by DrawNone View Post
crazy situation. the bets they canceled 2day seems far more interesting/potentially scandalous.

do i understand this correctly: one of the best (or most popular?) SC players had a best out of 3 match. his line for the 2nd and 3rd games were -150ish, but the line for the 1st match was +150ish?
I think it was much more severe :

Quote:
Originally Posted by cityburke View Post
I sent them and email after Innovations price in the first game of the series (which innovation went on to lose) ballooned out to 4.5. They pulled the games after that and eventually refunded the bets.
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Originally Posted by BooLoo View Post
Didn't watch the lines, so super was around -400 on the first map of a bo3 in which he should be around +200-220?!



Quote:
Originally Posted by DrawNone View Post
is there anything within the game (map or matchup or smthing) that made that 1st game different than the 2nd and 3rd?
The map could sway the winrate only by 3-5% in the most extreme cases, probably less than that.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:10 PM   #291
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Re: Esport Betting?

the only thing i dont like about this is pinnacle refunding bets after matches. if the underdog won doubt it would get refunded
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:38 PM   #292
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Re: Esport Betting?

In in a live series atm so havent had time to bet on wcs def will when i have time.

Drawnone: the best maps for a race can sway winrate by about 5% so should affect the odds by about that. Can someone post a link to the chart of the inno v super game 1 betting lines?

Logically super should never be a fav over inno even on the best p map he should just be say +135 instead of +170 or whatever on the best vs worst map for protoss. These numbers are just an estimate. Id still like to see actual numbers if inno got above +200 in map 1 thats just impossible w normal line movement
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:59 PM   #293
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Re: Esport Betting?

4W-2L so far in wsc

Lost :

Heromarine<Mana @2.195
Bly<Uthermal @2.756

Won :

Serral>Harstem @2.668
Showtime>Lilbow @2.363
Morrow>Bling @1.925
TLO>Ret @2.1

Have Targa > Kas pending @1.97 or something

Also, i recommend watching this finish of a Bo5 between Showtime and Lilbow :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVSzRt1Q4MQ

Overall running pretty well in wcs, that balances out my abysmall sk telecom proleague results. Plus had a nice +6 units dota2 day (+400 underdog winning as a main reason for it)

Last edited by MantridNinja; 01-23-2015 at 11:08 PM.
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Old 01-24-2015, 11:53 PM   #294
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Re: Esport Betting?

Couple lines im watching. Def staying away from san and innovation games for the time being. Sans not fielded this wk but inno is. Openers didnt look amazing at furst i liked dear but after mire analysis changed my mind. Hooing the prime steam comes so we can get jinair at a nice price but if it doesnt then whatever ill leave it. Liked leenock at first too but changed to a no play after further analysis. Cj is tempting vs kt as dogs comes down to how out of form zest is. Havent made any plays yet but ill do some mire analysis tonight. Hopefully the suspicioys line movements are gone for good who knows should be an interesting week. Gonna be tilted if kespa and pinny dont make additional statements.
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Old 01-24-2015, 11:55 PM   #295
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Re: Esport Betting?

On phone so sorry for typos
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Old 01-25-2015, 08:55 AM   #296
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Re: Esport Betting?

I am new here, but does anybody saw Scarlett vs Aspera yesterday?

Looked like Scarlett did not want to win this game. In Game 3 she throw away 8 Viper and lost the game so hard.^^
Then on the last game she die a terrible proxy hatch cheese.

What do you guys think?
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Old 01-25-2015, 09:00 AM   #297
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Re: Esport Betting?

scarlett was out of action for quite a while, no?
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Old 01-25-2015, 09:19 AM   #298
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Re: Esport Betting?

Lets not get into unnecessary witch hunts. We all know Scarlett has wrist issues and has been known to have motivational problems as well. Her performance is also very volatile in my opinion and she hasn't shown something impressive in a long time if I'm not forgetting anything. Didn't see the games tho.
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Old 01-25-2015, 09:35 AM   #299
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Gonna be tilted if kespa and pinny dont make additional statements.
So much this. Its like nothing happened and everyone moved on.
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Old 01-25-2015, 10:42 AM   #300
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by allaboutstrategy View Post
I am new here, but does anybody saw Scarlett vs Aspera yesterday?

Looked like Scarlett did not want to win this game. In Game 3 she throw away 8 Viper and lost the game so hard.^^
Then on the last game she die a terrible proxy hatch cheese.

What do you guys think?
Scarlett didnt practice sc2 at all most likely, she even streamed dota 2days before her wcs match and has been saying shes not into sc2 lately. While that was quite horrible throw I'm pretty sure she didn't do it on purpose. Gain for getting WCS premier is just too big for anyone to throw challenger match so you shouldnt be suspicious about it.Astrea also beat her in qualifiers for challenger and scarlett has been losing left and right recently anyway.
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