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Old 01-23-2015, 09:41 AM   #251
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

I don't remember exactly line movements, I just have some odds from bets etc.
afaik Inno against hero skyrocketed to 3.5 odds.

Other match was Innovation - sOs = 1:3, also on hotsix cup.
(here afaik line on inno went atleast from 1.7 to 2.7)

+this today, that's 3 times Innovation odds getting super weird.



That's why I think Pinnacle waited for some time and then started canceling when they were sure that something serious is going on.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:43 AM   #252
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Re: Esport Betting?

If Kespa/GSL dont make a statement in the next 24h then its a joke. They need to at this stage.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:50 AM   #253
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
If Kespa/GSL dont make a statement in the next 24h then its a joke. They need to at this stage.
-400 that there wont be any
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:50 AM   #254
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Re: Esport Betting?

Everyone should just spam Pinnacle to step it up and put some more info out because this is getting out of control and it's been like that for a month now.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:56 AM   #255
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
Everyone should just spam Pinnacle to step it up and put some more info out because this is getting out of control and it's been like that for a month now.
I tweeted at them asking to make another statement after todays cancellation
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:57 AM   #256
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

They don't have to give that info to us, but they can give info to Kespa, even if it's just in numbers, how many new accounts started betting, how many players are fishy, who are those players etc.etc.

If you pile up the numbers evidence can become pretty conclusive.
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:02 AM   #257
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
They don't have to give that info to us, but they can give info to Kespa, even if it's just in numbers, how many new accounts started betting, how many players are fishy, who are those players etc.etc.

If you pile up the numbers evidence can become pretty conclusive.
not really nothing will come from this and all pinnacle pretty much has is like 50k or w.e was bet on dark and 5k was bet on san or something like that and you cant ruin a guys career without substantial evidence thats impossible to get
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:07 AM   #258
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Re: Esport Betting?

Are the guy pm'ing you talking about inno, Swoop?
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:09 AM   #259
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Re: Esport Betting?

If Pinnacle comes and says to Kespa (not public) something like this:
"hey, we have a situation in which 10 new accounts came and they have 20 bets in total. All those bets were against player A and player B in 5 separate matches"

This wouldn't be something which can go public, but it can be something that Kespa can talk about, ask coaches to figure it out, where is a connection etc.

warcraft 3 and brood war scenes were destroyed after couple of scandals with match fixing, I really doubt kespa would take this lightly. I'm sure they wouldn't go public with anything but internally they might actually do something.
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:11 AM   #260
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by MantridNinja View Post
Are the guy pm'ing you talking about inno, Swoop?
I don't want to make a public accusation of any wrongdoing but yes. Note this is his info not mine. I haven't had a chance to review the replays/line movements myself yet but he sent me the info. Will post it shortly.
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:12 AM   #261
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Interesting. Do you have a record of line movement for first and second match? On paper inno/hero is a close game. No bets cancelled right? Can someone dig up the line move for first and second series that day?
I forgot my old 2p2 account username so I created new one...

I remember lines, because I bet on Innovation that day. Odds were ~1.8x 2.09 at early 200 euro limits. Then something like 30 min before match odds started dropping rapidly just like Dark vs San match. Line on Innovation went to ~4 and closed on ~3.5-3.8 range. Odds were jumping up and down probably because people like me couldn't belive it's fix or something. I thought that someone had information about Innovation's health issue or personal problem, but really it's hard to belive when later you see him playing so bad and doing **** like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h4H...tu.be&t=30m25s

Next matches he played Ok and odds and line movements were normal. Innovations was slight favourite in last bo3 and odds were something like 1.8 if I remember correctly.
This was 1st match with that weird line movement I have seen. Later I saw same line movements in: Maru vs Life, San vs Dark and 1 other match, but I don't remember which one. Only in Maru vs Life odds movement were wrong and Life won being priced ~3.5 or even 4 in proleague
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:16 AM   #262
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Re: Esport Betting?

I think i remember that day when he lost 0:2 but won 2:0 later in the groupstage. If i recall correctly, he came out with some sort of the excuse on why he played like **** at first - something about pc/mouse settings, or so.
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:17 AM   #263
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Re: Esport Betting?

Not sure if I should post what he gave me or forward it to Pinnacle or what. I don't want to start a witch hunt

He also mentioned weird line moves on inno vs sos game https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woKQC5GkuAA

havent had a chance to watch it yet im in a poker tourney

this isn't our job this will end up like the reddit boston bomber witchhunt if we investigate, this should be done by pinnacle and kespa, although we should give them our suspicions to investigate but make it clear they're just that, suspicions.

major steam alone doesnt mean much sometimes right sometimes wrong, but major steam that is massively off anything bettors would normally bet is unusual (for example its common to see late steam on flash every game win or lose)

its odd for mass steam against innovation though as movement in general is usually in his favour as hes a player the public loves to bet on usually
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:17 AM   #264
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Re: Esport Betting?

Oh and Flash vs BBoongBBoong odds went to over 8.0 on BBoongBBoong, but I figure someone really believed in Flash
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:25 AM   #265
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Re: Esport Betting?

Exactly. These are the matches I remember too. Life was around 3.7 but he eventually won and it turned to be a sick bet, but probably something happened behind it too. Funny thing is how people on TL are ignorant about betting yet dare to give their conclusion. Proleague bo1 format is so hard to guess and it's quite obvious Dark 1.4 bet wasn't good, eventhough hes in a better shape currently (not to mention san 2-0ed him few weeks ago).

This has been happening for a while, I saw some strange lines even in Kespa cup, Hot6ix had even more (inno hero-inno going to 3.5, inno sos-inno going from 1.7 to 2.7), cup in general was played on rather mediocre level with, for example, MKP beating so much good tosses in a rather weird fashion. Maybe stuff like that can happen, but looking at MKP before and after that cup it's quite obvious hes nowhere near the level of results he had in hotsix cup.
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:28 AM   #266
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Re: Esport Betting?

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but looking at MKP before and after that cup it's quite obvious hes nowhere near the level of results he had in hotsix cup.

Funny that you meantion it, i recall a lot of people on TL were talking on "why people play so bad against MKP, its unreal" during that tournament.
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:31 AM   #267
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Re: Esport Betting?

Shall I even mention that MVP's main sponsor is Hot6ix?
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:47 AM   #268
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Funny thing is how people on TL are ignorant about betting yet dare to give their conclusion. Proleague bo1 format is so hard to guess and it's quite obvious Dark 1.4 bet wasn't good, eventhough hes in a better shape currently (not to mention san 2-0ed him few weeks ago).
Yea, that's why people don't thake this seriously enough, those who don't bet just look at it in a way "who is favorite in this match", they don't realize how big of a difference it is if you bet on 1.9 or 1.7, let alone 1.2 odds.
People who bet on terrible 1.2 proleague odds lose their money pretty quickly, they don't have thousands of dollars to bet with.

That's why as we can see now, couple of us all have same matches in mind as suspicious, we all mentioned same games as being fishy. If we realized that, Pinnacle knows x10 about it.

everyone should try to force this to surface, not bashing specific players as cheaters, but try to force this as possible issue so that Pinnacle, Kespa and tournament organisers would cooperate.
betting can be good for tournaments as it brings additional excitement, but it can also lead to negative things. That's why it's in everyones interest to tackle this problem asap
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Old 01-23-2015, 11:00 AM   #269
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Shall I even mention that MVP's main sponsor is Hot6ix?
You're reaching a bit here, i'm not saying it's impossible, but have you got any proof that lines moved against his opponents or Hot6 specifically wanted him to win the tournament or anything otherwise suspicious?
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Old 01-23-2015, 11:01 AM   #270
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
Yea, that's why people don't thake this seriously enough, those who don't bet just look at it in a way "who is favorite in this match", they don't realize how big of a difference it is if you bet on 1.9 or 1.7, let alone 1.2 odds.
People who bet on terrible 1.2 proleague odds lose their money pretty quickly, they don't have thousands of dollars to bet with.

That's why as we can see now, couple of us all have same matches in mind as suspicious, we all mentioned same games as being fishy. If we realized that, Pinnacle knows x10 about it.

everyone should try to force this to surface, not bashing specific players as cheaters, but try to force this as possible issue so that Pinnacle, Kespa and tournament organisers would cooperate.
betting can be good for tournaments as it brings additional excitement, but it can also lead to negative things. That's why it's in everyones interest to tackle this problem asap
This is a really good post.
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Old 01-23-2015, 11:57 AM   #271
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by visniak View Post
This was 1st match with that weird line movement I have seen. Later I saw same line movements in: Maru vs Life, San vs Dark and 1 other match, but I don't remember which one. Only in Maru vs Life odds movement were wrong and Life won being priced ~3.5 or even 4 in proleague
Can you provide a source for life being +250 to +300 in proleague please? It feels like something id remember if it happened as I definitely would have been on life at that price in a proleague match
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:05 PM   #272
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Can you provide a source for life being +250 to +300 in proleague please? It feels like something id remember if it happened as I definitely would have been on life at that price in a proleague match
I cant seem to remember such a line, unless it was moved at the very last moment.

I did a search to find that match in my spreadsheet and it shows that i had life @2.15
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:20 PM   #273
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Old 01-23-2015, 12:35 PM   #274
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Can you provide a source for life being +250 to +300 in proleague please? It feels like something id remember if it happened as I definitely would have been on life at that price in a proleague match
You don't have your own database of line moves?
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:48 PM   #275
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Re: Esport Betting?

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You're reaching a bit here, i'm not saying it's impossible, but have you got any proof that lines moved against his opponents or Hot6 specifically wanted him to win the tournament or anything otherwise suspicious?
Yeah I agree this is reaching a bit too far but I really find it bit suspicious the way his results and games were played out, but since I dont have any proofs with line movement I guess I shouldnt talk too much about it. Lines that were definitely suspicious in Hotsix were Innovation-Hero and innovation-sos. I did lose monye when innovation got to 3.5 or so I kinda lost faith in such bets, they seemed fishy. Life Maru was a 50-50 match in bo1 proleague eventhough Maru beat him week before in IEM qualis (2-0) and the line moved before match to 3.7 for Life which I took but I was careful with it since my past experiences...Life did win and it turned out to be a great bet, but what happened with the lines is still fishy...
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