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Old 01-23-2015, 07:28 AM   #226
cityburke
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Re: Esport Betting?

The same exact scenario that occurred the other day with San has just played out and now the coincidences are really mounting. I sent them and email after Innovations price in the first game of the series (which innovation went on to lose) ballooned out to 4.5. They pulled the games after that and eventually refunded the bets.

Also innovation went on to win the series 2-1. This is getting absurd. I don't know anything about a relationship between these two players other than the both concurrently spent time on foreign teams in Europe if I am not mistaken.
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Old 01-23-2015, 07:43 AM   #227
BooLoo
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Re: Esport Betting?

Didn't watch the lines, so super was around -400 on the first map of a bo3 in which he should be around +200-220?!
Oh man... I really like watching starcraft
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Old 01-23-2015, 07:48 AM   #228
grubby4tw
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Re: Esport Betting?

My guess is that match fixing has been going on for a while, but Pinnacle wanted to make sure they were not isolated cases before taking action.
This will really put pressure on Kespa to investigate, but I'm not sure what they can do either unless the players admit to it or chat logs get leaked.
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Old 01-23-2015, 07:50 AM   #229
cityburke
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah that is precisely what happened in your American odds terminology. I'm not sure why pinnacle need an email to flag suspicion on that kind of a move. It's clear they don't have anyone watching starcraft markets that closely.
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Old 01-23-2015, 07:54 AM   #230
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

At first I thought that it may not be match fixing but someone figuring our how to trick odds with small bets and then betting large, but I checked other betting site I used and this doesn't make sense:


Why would odds be lower on Super on map1, but not on other maps or match? Someone put atleast 1-2k$ on Super map1
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Old 01-23-2015, 07:59 AM   #231
nightdrive1
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Re: Esport Betting?

You are right, odds movement for map1 was weird.
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:03 AM   #232
grubby4tw
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
At first I thought that it may not be match fixing but someone figuring our how to trick odds with small bets and then betting large, but I checked other betting site I used and this doesn't make sense:


Why would odds be lower on Super on map1, but not on other maps or match? Someone put atleast 1-2k$ on Super map1
To move a line from something like +100 to -400 (2.00 to 1.25), in a match with 1k limit, I think we're talking about something close to 6 figures (keep in mind there is money being bet on both sides).
I also think these bets came from multiple accounts that don't have a history of doing this kind of huge bets at terrible odds.
Swoopae explained all of this in a detailed teamliquid post and it's what makes the most sense to me too.
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:16 AM   #233
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

I understand that completely, I'm talking about this specific match on egamingbets.com and what amount of money would be needed for Super to be underdog in this situation.

This is pretty discouraging tho, I had pretty nice profits in last year from esports betting and I was convinced that it was because I follow the game really well but it might be that I was just lucking my way along all this matchfixing ))))))))
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:24 AM   #234
grubby4tw
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Lightbulb Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
I understand that completely, I'm talking about this specific match on egamingbets.com and what amount of money would be needed for Super to be underdog in this situation.

This is pretty discouraging tho, I had pretty nice profits in last year from esports betting and I was convinced that it was because I follow the game really well but it might be that I was just lucking my way along all this matchfixing ))))))))
If you didn't knew about the fixed matches, you probably lost because of it.
If you saw Innovation - Super at 4.00 1.25 on map 1, I highly doubt you would bet Super here
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:37 AM   #235
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

haha true dat. But I'm pretty sure Pinnacle monitored this for a long time. First time me and couple of friends noticed these really weird line changes was on that Hot6 cup last month. We were joking about how it wasn't hotsix but hotfix cup. Later I noticed these things couple of times but didn't really follow how big maxbets were etc so I thought nothing of it, but it really started to get ridiculous.
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:50 AM   #236
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Re: Esport Betting?

[E Sports] [Starcraft 2 - Global StarCraft 2 League ] [Match] Innovation vs Super. Your bet with ticket-ID: 433859726 has been refunded. All bets taken have been refunded due to the following reason: [Your bet was placed in fraudulent manner circumventing our betting limits and system regulations.] . Thank you!

Weird. I was literally first to bet on opener on Innovation at -177 for the ML and got his message - didnt watch it in real time so did inno potentially throw game 1? He still won right? The ML bet got cancelled due to the game 1 movement? I noticed some minor steam on Super but missed the main one. Wasnt around for this one emailed them assuming it was an error they cancelled my bet but seeing that movement against inno is just weird on map 1 then he wins... I mean, could people be trying to confuse the issue on the san vs dark game? Is someone trying to make san look innocent in a wtf this happens all the time way? Would anyone be dumb enough to try to fix a match rather than a series after it just got publicised? WTF this is just baffling. Can't wait for Pinny's statement here. Also feel a bit robbed of a unit. Wont add to record til we get a statement even tho bet won
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:57 AM   #237
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

This is getting weirder and weirder.
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:58 AM   #238
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

Inno lost map1 against Super and then won next 2 games.

Wasn't really some obvious throw, but it's pretty silly still how he was underdog on map1 but wasn't on other 2 maps which he won.
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Old 01-23-2015, 08:59 AM   #239
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Re: Esport Betting?

So after looking at line move I see why all bets were cancelled. That sucks. If Super was bet into favouritism... if Innovation the crown jewel of SC2 is potentially throwing matches this is a DEEP and widespread issue.

Couple thoughts

1) some attempt to make San look innocent because 'see this just happens all the time' and 'no way they'd be that dumb so it must just be random' but why the **** would they do that it makes no sense
2) match fixers are really ****ing dumb. really dumb. and matchfixing is widespread.
3) someone trying to make it look like a match fixing syndicate exists got lucky that super won game 1?
4) i dont have any other explanation

Worth noting is my opener moved the ML line from -177 to -203 on a single $100ish bet which is WAY more than usual i found it off but figured i'd been flagged as a sharp bettor and my bets therefore move lines more than average so idk

I didnt bet on game 1 or watch it live so no idea wtf happened with that

I am going to be so disappointed if matchfixing is widespread.

hope pinny makes a statemnt soon
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:09 AM   #240
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

Someone who was speculationg about Kespa or at least coaches/teams being involved got banned @TL forum, but that might explain your version 1)

But it seems that today's activity looks somewhat connected to San's match, unless it was so widespread and unnoticed that pinnacle simply never suspected anything before.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:12 AM   #241
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Re: Esport Betting?

I'm at a loss right now, I don't really care about a winning bet being cancelled but what the absolute holy **** is going on here... I don't see how this makes it look like San vs Dark wasn't fixed (it its a syndicate trying to cover their tracks). I don't see how a syndicate wouldn't think this would get flagged if it's match fixing. Someone trying to make it look like a match fixing syndicate would have to get incredibly lucky to specifically pick super to win map 1 as their game to fake-rig if its something like that for him to actually win. Maybe match fixers are just dumb?

I'm tempted to take a break from esports betting here.

Pinnacle had better release a statement this time in some detail and Kespa had better investigate. Somehow this wasn't on TL until I just posted it
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:13 AM   #242
nightdrive1
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Re: Esport Betting?

When the bet limit reached 500$ Super dropped from +140 to -160 (only looking at Map1) while Map2 and Map3 stayed at +128. Then he won Map1.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:17 AM   #243
cityburke
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Re: Esport Betting?

Hypothetically, if one was to throw a match then the first game of a series against a weaker player in a situation where even if you lose to you will very likely win the losers game and get another shot at that player seems like the perfect spot to do so.

Also all the bets got refunded the other day which suggests the fixers should they exist haven't made there "score" yet so to speak. I don't think we can underestimate the idiocy of people trying to win money quickly.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:21 AM   #244
grubby4tw
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Re: Esport Betting?

I saw the line movement and Super was at -400 to win map 1 with the limits at $500, 15-20 minutes before the match started. Then they took the match off.
I'm sure they'll post the line history as they did for Dark - San.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:21 AM   #245
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

Do you think pinnacle suspended the accounts that were heavily involved in the San-Dark betting? It would be freaking stupid if those accounts were the source of the suspicious betting today.

Also, did anyone had any other bets for day besides Inno-Super? I had heart over solar at nitrogen, but did not bother to watch the games or line movements.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:23 AM   #246
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Re: Esport Betting?

Seems like such a ridiculous spot to fix a match it almost cant be true especially directly after all the attention drawn to San vs Dark.

Also Innovation can't be hurting for money surely he's the crown jewel of SKTT1 the richest team in PL

So its

Someone trying to make it look like someone is trying to to destroy the sc2 korean scene

Someone actually trying to destroy the sc2 korean scene

A really dumb match fixing syndicate

Someone rich who thinks Super is a favourite over Innovation but only on map 1 for some reason?

Baffling. All we can do is wait for Pinnacle/Kespa's inevitable statement. I haven't seen the game yet (I came in during losers match today was in a poker tourney) so cant comment on that. It's on TL now though so someone will look into it.

In the meantime we should probably take a few days break from esports betting.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:30 AM   #247
bLahgg
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Re: Esport Betting?

But this didn't start with San/Dark, check this out
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Hot6ix_Cup
Group A
Innovation lost to herO 0:2, and then beat him 2:0 later on.

If I remember correctly line movement on that match was also super weird. And then it was some other match with Innovation also, some other TvP afaik that was also fishy as ****.
Basically today was 3rd time just for Innovation that something really suspicious happened.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:32 AM   #248
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
But this didn't start with San/Dark, check this out
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Hot6ix_Cup
Group A
Innovation lost to herO 0:2, and then beat him 2:0 later on.

If I remember correctly line movement on that match was also super weird. And then it was some other match with Innovation also, some other TvP afaik that was also fishy as ****.
Basically today was 3rd time just for Innovation that something really suspicious happened.
Interesting. Do you have a record of line movement for first and second match? On paper inno/hero is a close game. No bets cancelled right? Can someone dig up the line move for first and second series that day?
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:33 AM   #249
grubby4tw
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Re: Esport Betting?

It seems stupid indeed to fix another match 2 days after Dark - San.
Maybe these matches are fixed at least a few days before they are played, and it was too late for them to cancel the arrangements?
Also they probably didn't expect Pinnacle to cancel again because there is no concrete proof and it looks very bad on Pinnacle.
It's hard for the match fixer to get caught afterall ... as long as they don't admit to it or have chat conversations leaked somehow.
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Old 01-23-2015, 09:40 AM   #250
MantridNinja
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bLahgg View Post
But this didn't start with San/Dark, check this out
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2014_Hot6ix_Cup
Group A
Innovation lost to herO 0:2, and then beat him 2:0 later on.

If I remember correctly line movement on that match was also super weird.

Thats interesting for sure.

Also worth noting, that these 2:0 to 0:2 in groups during the same day happens a lot of the time, but without the line movements it does not mean anything (it should not, at least)
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