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Old 12-22-2014, 04:54 AM   #1
tonyk1
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Esport Betting?

what do you guys think about esport betting?
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Old 12-22-2014, 05:04 AM   #2
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Re: Esport Betting?

huge potential for fixed games

low limits

no thanks

it does seem to be getting popular though, and pinnacle seems to promote it a lot which i find interesting.
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Old 12-22-2014, 10:25 AM   #3
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Re: Esport Betting?

I've been crushing it betting on LoL, only recreational betting so don't care about low limits, makes random matches between two bottom feeder teams interesting.
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Old 12-22-2014, 10:58 AM   #4
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Re: Esport Betting?

I crush sc2 pretty hard.

Decided for this SC2 proleague season i'll tweet my picks and post my record, but didn't want to create a thread here incase no interest

Posting as if all bets are 1u, in reality I went hard on Startale today and ended up close to even due to multiple units on Startale but i'll record all bets ITT as 1u

So after today season overall record is now 4-4 -1.52u. Pick of the day record 1-0 +1u

Had Startale, Life, Hush and CJ Ace (after Bbyong vs Solar MU revealed) win and Hero, Solar, Bomber and Curious lose. Startale was my pick of the day. I'll tally my picks of the day record seperately I guess with whatever line I like most each day.

I do think I ran a full game below EV today due to Solar's absurd choice of build, Curious getting cheesed badly and Hero throwing away a won game with uncharacteristic poor micro. Bomber also played worse than he has recently. Pretty confident today's bets were all +EV except maybe Curious, but I was banking on his recent series wins against sOs showing a return to form having not actually seen the games.

Pretty confident i'll be up somewhere between 30-50u after 1000 picks this PL season, have a big sample of what I think is somewhere between a 2-5% ROI (i'm up ~100u on esports over just under two years I think but not sure how many bets total that's over offhand, a bunch were recorded in the old best bet threads and I was up about 35u there over ~800 bets from memory)

Always interested in SC2 discussion anyway. I'm slowly learning DOTA but don't know about the game to cap it myself yet. Will try to pick up LoL as well when I get time, but i'm too busy between poker, esports, mma and social life really to do it at the moment.

For tomorrow I caught the sos opener at +111 vs ty for 1.2u (line is well and truly gone) and locked in 1u for my picks, going to wait to see where lines move for the rest. I actually really loved ST today at the -237 it closed at, despite it being close, horrible coaching decisions, Bomber and Curious playing badly and ST only winning 3-2 i'm pretty confident the true line there is more like -350 which i said before the game.

Picks for tomorrow: sOs +111
Pick of the day: sOs +111 (I think true line is more like -135)

I'm also going to fade the Flash steam and take Rogue last minute, because the Flash and Jaedong steam always comes, so you always bet last minute on either of them. I think Rogue is a play at +100, and will be more of a play at the +120 we'll get closer to game time.

I think Stats at -116 is a play vs Cure but won't lock it in partially because i'm a diehard Jinair fan and don't want to bet against my favourite team.

I'd normally like that Zest line against Maru but he's been inconsistent lately so i'm staying away. Also, don't want to bet against Jinair unless it's a super obvious spot.

For the other game I honestly don't like any of the lines much. Soo in theory should be a bet but I think he's in a permanent decline and also there's a very slight imbalance against Zerg still overall in the meta.

I'm tempted by the Marineking line but I want to watch more of his non TvP games first because he was so good and then so bad for so long. MVP need him to return to ace form if they're going to have any chance this season of making the finals in any round.

Innovation should beat Center but i'm not laying more than -220ish in a bo1 unless it's a squash match like Life vs Terror (where Life played overly safe to lower variance and still won despite not using an 'optimal' build)

I do think there will be value in continuing to fade Terror in all of his bo1 games even at -300 for his opponents, I do not think he ends the season with a better than 25% map winrate. He is the worst player in proleague by quite a lot. I'd probably take a lot of foreigners over him. Mid tier foreigners. It is baffling to me that the Prime coach continues to send him out even with their limited roster.

Classic/Seed line seems about right, I don't like either side at that price.

Ace match in theory is a good spot to bet SKTT1 but I don't trust their coach to use Innovation all of the time and Marineking's usually worst at TvT as their likely ace although MVP could use a few players.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:35 AM   #5
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Re: Esport Betting?

Some thoughts on the SC2 Proleague teams (wall of words inc)

KT's coaches overuse flash as an ace player but are otherwise competent. They know what works and that's Zest/Flash/Stats/TY. They'll be top 4 at the end of each round. If Zest loses form and Flash doesn't become SC1 flash, they're not going to be back to back proleague champs though. Stats has been playing better and better though and all four guys are better than .500 players in proleague. I think they will have rounds ranging from 4-3 to 6-1.

Jinair's coaches do a pretty good job, they overused Terminator in non likely PvZ spots a bit last season but if they stick to their core of Maru/sOs/two of Rogue/Cure/Trap and then mix in Symbol when/if he gets some form or Avenge if he's performing well in the teamhouse then thats fine. The former Team 8 is being built by smart coaches and they sign exciting players with potential. They'll finish top 4 in every round as well I think and have a good chance to win it all. As someone who's liked them since they were finishing second last to EGTL, it would be awesome to see them beat the Telecoms. They also have a smart coach, who doesn't make horrible mistakes putting players on bad maps or mis-selecting the ace player when it matters. I think their round will range from 4-3 to 6-1 for the most part but if they beat SKT and KT in any one round I could see a 7-0 in one round maybe. I hope.

SKTT1. The *******s of the league who sent Parting to Kespa-jail. I wish nothing but failure upon SKTT1. Their team has a strong core, but if soo is on a downward spiral, and classic is out of form... it's going to be up to Innovation to carry them. This team will live or die on whether they pick Innovation for ace matches and whether Innovation is top 5 in the world throughout the whole season. I think they'll make at least 3/4 finals of the rounds but a good chance they miss one. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the first round, to be honest. I expect them to throw some dollars at big free agents over the course of the season. I also wouldnt be surprised if some of Dark, Dream, Paralyze, Sorry and Penguin become top 20 in the world over the course of the season and may even take proleague spots away from soo and/or classic. If I have to pick i'll go with they make 3/4 round finals. I'd say their rounds range from 3-4 to 5-2 for the most part.

CJ Entus

So overrated. Their coach is one of the worst in proleague. Coach Park gets a lot of praise considering he's absolutely awful at his job. He doesn't put his players on the right map, mis-selects the ace player regularly (although he got it right today), doesn't sign players well in the off season and other than bbyong and hero nobody has really improved under CJ Entus. Hush has potential I guess. Sora fizzled away, Effort mostly sucked other than his ace win vs Maru last season and is gone, and while Skyhigh has shown potential, we don't know whether he has staying power. In theory, they *should* be the fourth strongest team, and they're the fourth of five 'big' Kespa teams.

Honestly I don't think Coach Park could coach Jinair, KT or SKTT1's roster to victory though this season and I think they'll fall short. I'll say they make 2/4 finals this season, both in fourth and are eliminated in the first round both times. Hero is their rock, and he's awesome and playing well but lacks the Rain/Innovation consistency and can throw away won games like he did today against Dear. I'm expecting a lot of 4-3 and 3-4 rounds from CJ this season where they beat Samsung, Prime and one or two other wins and lose to at least 2/3 of SKT KT and Jinair plus a few others.

Samsung Galaxy

Oh dear. The fifth Kespa powerhouse. Their lineup is awful. Solar is losing form after being their only form player for the last few months. Seriously, his micro against Dream was as bad as my micro would be against a proleague player and his choice of build this week against Byul? Well, he hard build order countered his opponent and lost anyway because the build sucks. His ZvP is pretty good but with Z being marginally underpowered vs T unless you're Life, he's going to struggle to beat a lot of proleague terrans and a lot of the PL zergs have good zvz too. For one of their two ace players I think he'll have a 50% winrate and thats not good enough. Dear is the other. Dear who won Code S can help carry a team but I don't think he has the consistency. He'll win over half his games but not over two thirds. Bravo played well today and has potential but who knows how he'll go. The rest of their roster will go sub .500 and I see Samsung Galaxy finishing 7th with Prime last, and Prime may beat them for a round. 0/4 top 4 finishes, and one wooden spoon. They'll win the odd game when Dear and Solar perform though, I think they'll go 2-5 and 3-4 most rounds, maybe 1-6 sometimes.

Startale

Well, today's decision not to play Life in the ace match was baffling given their path to the playoffs if they lose to Prime is thin. That said, I think they're about the equal fourth best team on paper, especially if Bomber, Curious, Hack, San and Leenock can play at their best and especially if Parting is released from Kespa-jail. Life will win more often than not, he botches games sometimes with his style but he'll win over half his games and is a serviceable ace player. Leenock played the best he's played in years today, if he can return to his FXO ace form then Startale have a zerg force to be reckoned with especially if Z receive any minor buffs this year which is likely. No idea wtf that was from Curious today but he can play too. San will be a .500 player which is fine, and Bomber could be anywhere from .40 to .65 depending if it's today's bomber or the bomber who won Redbull Battlegrounds and made guys like Cure look like amateurs. I think they'll mostly split fourth place with CJ, but in theory, I like their team to beat CJ and I think they have a higher ceiling and a better chance to win it all if Bomber, Life and Leenock catch fire with the rest of the roster rotating.. and if they add Parting to that lineup, that team can beat anybody if they play well although they're inconsistent. Overall I found ST-Yoe disappointing today but I think they'll make the finals at least twice out of the four rounds, and will go on a run to the grand final in one of those two. I think we'll see a really wide range from ST this season from 2-5 to 6-1 depending on whether their players are in form and i'm confident they'll both make a playoff and miss a playoff more than I am for any other team.

MVP

Marineking carried prime for so long as as he returns to form he needs to carry MVP too. I see a similar season to last time for MVP, maybe slightly better. Mostly 2-5 to 4-3 rounds but I see them sneaking into the finals in one of the four rounds. Marineking, Losira, Yonghwa, Panic and Center is a competent if not spectacular team but they will NEED Marineking to start crushing. He's showing signs of it but if they're going to be an above .500 team they need it, since the rest of their roster is .35 to .50 type guys. They could improve, it's possible and I think they will do better than Prime and probably even better than Samsung overall but I still think they're probably the sixth or maybe even seventh best team overall. Not a deep roster either if guys lose form. The partnership with TL will help a LOT if HerO and Taeja are available to them on a regular basis but I suspect they may not be. If you add HerO and Taeja to the roster, suddenly this team is competing with Startale and CJ for that fourth finals spot each round. I suspect they only make it once though probably unless Marineking and Taeja can form a core of the team that crushes week in week out.

Prime

What can I say, i'll be shocked if they go 2-5 in any round really. Yoda's a great pickup, without him they would be truly screwed. Creator isn't the top 10 protoss he once was and I wouldn't be shocked if he retires this season or after it. He'll win 30-50% and Yoda will win 50% or so probably. Myungsik has some nice builds but his fundamentals arent super amazing and he couldnt hold a spot on KT's roster. He'll win 40-50% as well probably. The problem is, Bboongbboong's skillset is dated and he'll go sub 40, and Terror quite possibly won't win a match all season. All of their other pickups are untested prospects. I expect a mixture of 0-7s through to 2-5s, and if Prime make the finals of any round i'd be truly surprised. They were paying +10200 for a reason to win the first round of PL. They did nearly win today though but I feel that was more Startale not playing that well today and Startale are only the #4-5 team anyway. They're not going to take matches off the three favourites pretty much every, maybe one all season. They'll win the odd game against Samsung and MVP when they play well and sometimes even against Startale and CJ when they underperform but they have no chance and they know it.

Predictions

KT: 4/4 round finals
Jinair: 4/4 round finals
SKTT1: 3/4 round finals
CJ: 2/4 round finals
Startale-Yoe: 2/4 round finals
MVP: 1/4 round finals
Samsung: 0/4 round finals
Prime: 0/4 round finals and finish last in at least 3/4 rounds

Jinair and KT win at least one round each of the four rounds. Whoever wins between them tomorrow night probably wins the first round. MVP or Startale make a surprise run in one round. The fourth one goes to either SKTT1 or a second round win for Jinair or KT

Season final is a year away so anything can happen, but this far out i'll pick Jinair to defeat KT or SKTT1 in the final.
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Old 12-22-2014, 03:00 PM   #6
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by Donkson View Post
huge potential for fixed games

low limits

no thanks

it does seem to be getting popular though, and pinnacle seems to promote it a lot which i find interesting.
That's where I sit. The players make so little, and have so little upside from wins, that rigging is all too plausible.
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Old 12-22-2014, 03:12 PM   #7
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Re: Esport Betting?

I don't what a lot of the words are itt
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Old 12-22-2014, 04:29 PM   #8
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Re: Esport Betting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkson View Post
huge potential for fixed games

low limits

no thanks

it does seem to be getting popular though, and pinnacle seems to promote it a lot which i find interesting.
If the limits are low, how is there huge potential for fixed games? Aren't these like $100 limits or something?
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Old 12-22-2014, 06:18 PM   #9
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Re: Esport Betting?

There's a guy who I follow on Twitter and FU and he does pretty damn good. I have tried to get into watching it as I hate blindly betting things, but i'm so out of that loop it was just watching mayhem.

Pinnacle has done over 1 million transactions in e-sports in the last 3 years, may have small limits but its going to be the next big thing.
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Old 12-22-2014, 06:45 PM   #10
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Re: Esport Betting?

e-sport-bets.com offers 100% bonus up to $600, I was considering buying in to bet on cs:go but I can't deposit with skrill because I'm from Canada (wtf :S). Looked a little more into release requirements of that $600 bonus...you have to bet $24K to release the entire amount. Is this normal? Are there better deals offered anywhere else?
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Old 12-22-2014, 08:34 PM   #11
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Re: Esport Betting?

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If the limits are low, how is there huge potential for fixed games? Aren't these like $100 limits or something?
What makes you think these players are hard to buy off?
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Old 12-22-2014, 09:54 PM   #12
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Re: Esport Betting?

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If the limits are low, how is there huge potential for fixed games? Aren't these like $100 limits or something?
because the in-game item system allows for way higher limits (there are sites where you can bet items), you just need to have more than one game account, which is perfectly accepted.

it happened recently with some brazilian team who threw a match, the guy even posted stuff on twitter incriminating himself but the site couldn't do anything because they payouts are all instant and linked to gaming accounts that they have no control over.
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Old 12-22-2014, 10:15 PM   #13
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Re: Esport Betting?

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What makes you think these players are hard to buy off?
My point is when the limits are that small, you're going to the trouble of fixing matches for peanuts. And the players are risking their "careers" for peanuts, in turn.

Item thing went over my head? lol...
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:47 PM   #14
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Re: Esport Betting?

there are separate sites that don't take cash as bets, but take items from the games (that are worth money), so via those site you can get higher limits.

so players can fix games, and get down ~$500-$1k on a heavy underdog pretty easily.

i'm not suggesting it happens every day, but it has happened before and will continue to happen.
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Old 12-23-2014, 05:13 AM   #15
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Re: Esport Betting?

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That's where I sit. The players make so little, and have so little upside from wins, that rigging is all too plausible.
Solar reported a match fixing offer he received so offers do happen, but there's only been one match fixing scandal I know of and it was a few years ago
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Old 12-23-2014, 06:01 AM   #16
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Re: Esport Betting?

Todays SC2 Proleague picks sOs +111, Jinair -102, Stats -115, Marineking -101, and Rogue at whatever closing line is (currently +103, but its vs Flash so always bet as late as possible) MVP +1.5 -119

Will lock in Rogue price when I actually fire, have locked in the rest.

Play of the day is sOs +111 although that lines long gone (although I did lock it in yesterday at that price as youll see from my post from yesterday)

Less confident in some of today's picks than average, Jinair and MVP +1.5 lines are iffy but narrowly +EV i think (i'd say -105 for Jinair and maybe -125 for MVP +1.5). I think Rogue is maybe -105 vs Flash in current form and would have Stats at -120ish and sOs at -135 to -140. Think Marineking's probably -125ish too.

Rogue out to +108 now hopefully the Flash steam keeps coming. Gotta abide by the 'always fade Jaedong and Flash because their prices are overinflated due to casual fans' rule.

Edit: locking in Rogue +108 but should bet later in theory, firing up poker tables tho

Last edited by SwoopAE; 12-23-2014 at 06:18 AM.
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Old 12-23-2014, 06:53 AM   #17
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yeah that was lazy of me, Rogue out to +119 so missed a bunch of points due to laziness of betting too soon thought i'd have more tables by now and might not have time to check

So far so good anyway, Jinair up 2-0 and sOs wins
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Old 12-23-2014, 06:58 AM   #18
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Re: Esport Betting?

lol that was so bad and lazy of me to fire first unit on Rogue at +108 before the flash steam. Fired another at +130 at closing line to average the price out to +119 for my Rogue bet.

Jinair looking awesome today. If they all perform like this they're going to win this season.
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Old 12-23-2014, 07:08 AM   #19
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Re: Esport Betting?

Good start, 3-0 +3.19u so far today with 1 push (Stats game didnt happen due to 3-0)

Hoping Marineking and MVP also perform as well as I hope and SKTT1 might not be as dominant as last season
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Old 12-23-2014, 07:40 AM   #20
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Re: Esport Betting?

Are you betting these solely at pinny?
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Old 12-23-2014, 08:56 AM   #21
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Re: Esport Betting?

Yes

Shame MVP let us down today, disappointing performance but it will create good opportunities to bet on Jinair and KT against SKTT1 potentially this round.

sOs +111 W Jinair -102 W Rogue +119 avg W MVP+1.5 -119 L Marineking -101 L Stats PUSH (dnp)

Overall - 3-2 +1.1u today with one game that did not play, 6-5 -0.42u overall.

Picks of the day moves to 2-0 +2.11u

Fortunately in reality I had 2u on Rogue due to the absurd late Flash steam and only 1u on the other bets. At the closing line of +130 Rogue rivalled sOs for play of the day as I capped Rogue at -105ish and sOs at -135ish
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Old 12-23-2014, 09:51 AM   #22
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Solar reported a match fixing offer he received so offers do happen, but there's only been one match fixing scandal I know of and it was a few years ago
lol
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Old 12-23-2014, 10:51 AM   #23
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Re: Esport Betting?

I'm not saying there haven't been other fixed matches but limits were $200ish with a 200 dollar bet often moving it 6+ points until quite recently and being caught match fixing would be a career ender. I'm sure it happens, but I think it'd be a small percentage of matches and i'm fairly profitable over a few thousand bets so far so it hasn't affected the sport being beatable. The absurd steam is often wrong still etc. and I find in general the steam is less accurate in predicting winners than in most sports.
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Old 12-23-2014, 05:09 PM   #24
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Re: Esport Betting?

So. I have bitcoin, I even gamble with BTC on SWC but there's no huge plus or minus for a sportsbook being a BTC book compared to a fiat book. Nitrogen sucks compared to pinnacle for esports. No bank transaction fees from dealing with Fiat, but vig is higher?

Gumiho vs Skyhigh. Nitrogen has -127/+102. Pinnacle has -123/+105

Innovation vs Stats, Nitrogen has -147/+118. Pinnacle has -142/+121

You see the pattern? Copying pinnacle prices and adding extra vig.

Anyone considering using Nitrogen with Pinnacle access - take a look at the difference in vig first. The higher vig would literally kill my 3-5%ish ROI on esports which I would imagine already puts me in the top couple % of esports bettors. As it stands 8 point pinny vig sucks enough given they do -105 on most sports but thats the price we pay for not very sharp lines.

Cashouts are also quick on pinnacle (pretty much instant then a day or two for a bank to process

If you come here to shill your BTC book i'll counter with make it lower vig than pinnacle and you have something i'll use. Until then, gtfo.

Also, the esports lines are not sharp in SC2. No idea about LoL but I doubt it.
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Old 12-24-2014, 02:07 AM   #25
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Re: Esport Betting?

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
So. I have bitcoin, I even gamble with BTC on SWC but there's no huge plus or minus for a sportsbook being a BTC book compared to a fiat book. Nitrogen sucks compared to pinnacle for esports. No bank transaction fees from dealing with Fiat, but vig is higher?

Gumiho vs Skyhigh. Nitrogen has -127/+102. Pinnacle has -123/+105

Innovation vs Stats, Nitrogen has -147/+118. Pinnacle has -142/+121

You see the pattern? Copying pinnacle prices and adding extra vig.

Anyone considering using Nitrogen with Pinnacle access - take a look at the difference in vig first. The higher vig would literally kill my 3-5%ish ROI on esports which I would imagine already puts me in the top couple % of esports bettors. As it stands 8 point pinny vig sucks enough given they do -105 on most sports but thats the price we pay for not very sharp lines.

Cashouts are also quick on pinnacle (pretty much instant then a day or two for a bank to process

If you come here to shill your BTC book i'll counter with make it lower vig than pinnacle and you have something i'll use. Until then, gtfo.

Also, the esports lines are not sharp in SC2. No idea about LoL but I doubt it.
Hey pal, not shilling anything...like I said its only for specialized things.

1st of all, I have no access to Pinnacle, being American. So obviously that cuts out a lot of your argument. That's basically the main draw for using bitcoins, and nitrogen is just the best bitcoin sports site (seals being the best poker site).

But anyways, yes its higher juice on those specific bets you mentioned. So it might only be useful for a huge tournament like I mentioned, such as The International. The juice was very low on that as I recall, -105/-105. Even if you're only betting large events, its still always good to have another place to bet money on +EV plays.
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