Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
So this risk-free bet Caesar's has of $5,000 is basically about a 45-50% EV? (The above was 46%.) Seems too good to pass up.
The Caesar's MI promo expires on the 30th, not sure about other jurisdictions.
The EV depends on the lines you find. I don't know how much selection Caesar's offers or how the juice is, but it's certainly possible, given enough time searching, to get up to 65% EV on risk free bets, maybe even more, if you find really good lines and have enough to hedge with (the higher EV lines require more). I don't have a lot of money to hedge with and definitely am not rolled to risk $5k outright so I'm going to have to take a suboptimal line. I'm hoping for 35-40% EV considering that and that there's very little time left.
Quote:
Why do you hedge with another book? The original book would catch it and ban the bet or something?
It's against the promotion's T&C in some of them and I imagine none of the books would like it very much because you're just taking money from them with 0 risk.
Also, each book usually has different lines. It's pretty easy to find bets where another book has a better line, increasing your EV. Sometimes you can even find lines with an overlay.
As for the importance of understanding sports betting rules for the sport/site you're betting on, I made a minor screw up a couple days ago. I placed a $500 freebet on an MLB moneyline on BetMGM and hedged with another book. Most books by default will require listed pitchers for each team to start, or the bet gets voided/stake returned. BetMGM lets the bet have action regardless of starting pitchers. My hedge ended up getting voided because one of the starting pitchers had a finger injury and didn't play, and my MGM freebet lost. On MGM it's possible to make a moneyline wager which requires listed pitchers to start, and on other books it's possible to allow any pitchers to start, but I didn't know I had to do that. I don't do much sports betting.
Since I'm on the topic I want to point out that I have seen books where a freebet which gets voided or pushed is considered a loss. Can't remember if MGM is one of those.