btw you doing this really makes me wonder how many people doing it are doing it as a level like you

i've never understood why if someone legitimately believes their access to a specific resource is the reason for their success why they'd then want to share it with everyone until it becomes standard and loses its advantage

never understood why anyone would do a screenshot with a shoutout attached

i don't subscribe to any of the sites, but from the free content it seems like they all just spit the same stuff out anyway. i'm assuming some people don't see obvious things and then feel great because someone helped them see it.

The best knowledge IMO is just get a list of winning lineups or people who are good dfs players and study how they construct their lineups. Emulate it, etc. That's how I'm approaching it.



nice 1st place 5k, win $181. 200 -> $26.41, best is $100 -> $3.92. something like 400 people tied for 1st

guess it's gonna happen when you can easily fit in cpt harden w/westbrook and trae young

Daily: 7-5-0, +1.66u
YTD: 137-132-0, -6.97u, 324.20u risked, -2.1% ROI

yahoo thankfully doesn't do showdown, but this is exactly why i avoid it on other sites and tend to skip or only chase overlay on slates of 4 games or less unless i see a real opportunity

nice man, keep it up

nfl props dec 1

https://pastebin.com/qW8XUk0W

good luck and godspeed everyone

5am grind is real

MTL Brendan Gallagher o3.5 +121
MTL Joel Armia o2.5 +102

I'm opening up a role for a director of social media. Start with a twitter account to blast out Crowdsource Syndicate plays to the media and build engagement with gambling twitter. I have a twitter but I'm terrible at socializing in general so I mainly just use it to pass time while I'm sitting on a toilet.

here's what i got

Kupp u6 Receptions -115
Woods u5 Receptions -105
Kirk u5 Receptions -115
Mayfield u1 Interceptions 131
Hodges u18.5 Pass complete -113
Mayfield o20.5 Pass complete 105
McDonald u3 Receptions -130
Tim Patrick o2.5 Receptions 127
Rivers u1 Interceptions 115
Rivers u35.5 Pass attempts -115
Rivers u23.5 Pass complete -134
Murray u23.5 Pass complete -130
Goff u24.5 Pass complete -115
Darnold o20.5 Pass complete -115
Alex Erickson o3 Receptions -115
Tate u3.5 Receptions 100
Demaryius Thomas u3.5 Receptions -115
Chark u5 Receptions -115
Evans o5.5 Receptions 120
Foles u1.5 Pass TDs 120
Foles o24.5 Pass complete 100
Foles o37.5 Pass attempts 100
Mahomes o0.5 Interceptions 110
Carr u35.5 Pass attempts -132
Mahomes o36.5 Pass attempts -128
Albert Wilson o3 Receptions 115
Alshon Jeffery u4 Receptions -115
Fitzpatrick u22.5 Pass complete -125
Wentz u21.5 Pass complete -115
Wentz o0.5 Interceptions 130
Brissett o1.5 Pass TDs 168
Jonnu Smith u3 Receptions -115
Doyle u3.5 Receptions -104
Humphries o3 Receptions 125
Mark Andrews o3 Receptions -120
Lamar Jackson o16.5 Pass complete 122
Garoppolo o20.5 Pass complete 100
Lamar Jackson u29.5 Pass attempts -115
Lamar Jackson o0.5 Interceptions 110
Kyle Allen o33.5 Pass attempts -115
Dwayne Haskins u30.5 Pass attempts -132
McCaffrey u5.5 Receptions -115
Davante Adams u6 Receptions 102
Daniel Jones o20.5 Pass complete 100
Rodgers o34.5 Pass attempts -115

looking at -7.94% so far this week including thursdays loss

lets get back on the wagon w/sunday night. we did get 2nd in the 49ers/Balt showdown in multiple gpps for a nice score. Would have won if the field goal was 50 yards not 49 but what can you do.

Fells o19.5 Receiving yards 116
Fuller u4 Receptions -120
Edelman u6.5 Receptions 105

It's not rocket science to beat these small markets. Sharing, you might give away a little. You might even destroy a market or two. I've always found the benefits of networking greatly outweigh the costs of destroying markets.

It takes more time to grind away putting in bets than it does to identify where the market is wrong. If half the things I bet blew up and were no longer available, it wouldn't take long to find other things just as easily beatable. But for now, why bother? I don't want to spend more time punching in bets than I already am.

Good outs and collaborators are more scarce than things to beat.

You're a ****ing parasite tho.

Honestly, if someone wants to talk shop. I'm happy to explain how I'd approach the problem. For free. All public. If you say something really ****ing dumb I'll ridicule you tho. Like our boi Pai.

Maybe someone can crosspost this to reddit so I can explain 58000 times why poisson does not accurately describe unique counting props (rebounds/assists) due to skewness.

rick,

Nothing unique. I think Daniel Plainview from There Will Be Blood has the most salient view on sports betting.

Can she be a part of our Twitter squad?

https://twitter.com/amandaknox

Yup, that was my experience with him too. Part of why I share very little info with anyone anymore. Had a couple bad experiences with networking with anyone in the advantage sports betting world. Much better to just network with people outside of it.

sorry what I meant was the DFS stuff like "thanks rotogrinders" etc etc

what i mean is let's say you sub to a golf specific site and you believe their insights on a certain course or player led to your recent success, then why would you ever want to tweet out a thank you to the site and help them grow, in which case that information loses most of it's value

a few years ago, simply avoiding the injured players was enough edge to be profiting

then as edges narrowed, you had to be the guy who didn't just skip the injured guys, but found which guys would benefit due to their teammate being injured to profit

now doing those is the bare minimum and if you don't do it you're dead money

which begs the question, if you actually believe you're only winning because of information a 3rd party provides you, then why would you ever want to promote that as mainstream?

rick,

Obv that would be really stupid. IMO the pro move is to figure out what they're doing and help to make it less shitty. For example Corsi has a bunch of dumb issues that Sigs expounded on. (That isn't how ML works basically. Tho I think some people think you just throw numbers in a bag and mash a button and get an answer which (while... technically true?) is completely dumb.

But this requires work.

tbf I've thought about Justin's comment and as a parasite this is pretty much what he needs. Unless he just wants to bet steam at soft outs he needs to get ideas from other people, couple them with someone to do the work, then find places to bet them since it prob sucks too much to beat the board. It is almost the 2020s folks. There are plenty of poor people with internet who're happy to grind $100 props for 3% edges. Gotta get it while the getting good.

yeah the reason why i decided to attack golf and hockey is because finding data driven analysis on those sports is difficult and when it is found, it's full of logical leaps and potholes or just pure number spew without context or reliability when it does occur

worked out great for hockey and golf is still a work in progress that's on hold for now until i learn more about golf itself

only golfed twice, played as a lefty once, a righty the other time, unsure which side i should play (canadian lefty in hockey, switch hitter baseball, righty in lacrosse & life) and was utterly hammered by the time was halfway through so that probably a ceiling to my understanding of the relevance of the data

on the positive, it gives me incentive to pick up a something as a hobby that many people appear to enjoy even without the booze

I'm also a Canadian lefty in hockey, switch hitter in baseball and righty in life and would be in Lacrosse if I played it...and I golf lefty if that helps

Daily: 1-1-0, +0.02u
YTD: 138-133-0, -6.95u, 326.20u risked, -2.1% ROI

VGK Shea Theodore o2.5 +101
VGK Alex Tuch u2.5 -126
STL Jaden Schwartz o2.5 +130
ANA Nick Ritchie u1.5 +138

lets close the week strong after last night

Vikings/Seahawk Total Sacks u4.5 +130 (fair line +109)
Rudolph receptions u3.5 -115
Diggs receptions u5 +100
Cook receptions u4.5 -110
Wilson Pass complete u21.5 -115

Cousins is 0-7 ATS in MNF

Should we fade him based on this stat alone? It's the worst in history according to Elias Sports Bureau

Hope he loses by exactly 3, if that happens back up the truck.

why no bet on smith jr u3 receptions?

line was 2.5 when i looked