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Old 11-26-2019, 10:35 AM   #2326
TomG
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Spoiler:
Daily: 10-2-0, +8.48u
YTD: 116-117-0, -10.23u, 278.27u risked, -3.7% ROI
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Old 11-26-2019, 12:42 PM   #2327
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Pai,

Why bother trolling when you clearly didn't understand the question and won't contribute to our shared knowledge?

What is your proposed alternative for measuring the quality of shots or assists?
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Old 11-26-2019, 01:12 PM   #2328
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

you'r right. i will leave it be.

My proposed alternative is dont over complicate when sometimes it does more harm than good.
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Old 11-26-2019, 02:31 PM   #2329
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

So you're suggesting that only creating shot quality matters and the shooter doesn't?!?

Baffling.
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Old 11-26-2019, 04:08 PM   #2330
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

DAL Miro Heiskanen o2.5 +110
MTL Joel Armia o2.5 +126
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Old 11-27-2019, 04:39 AM   #2331
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
Spoiler:
Daily: 10-2-0, +8.48u
YTD: 116-117-0, -10.23u, 278.27u risked, -3.7% ROI
Nicely done, looks like it'll be back on the positive by end of year no doubt
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Old 11-27-2019, 06:52 AM   #2332
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable View Post
So you're suggesting that only creating shot quality matters and the shooter doesn't?!?

Baffling.
i'm not saying that. I'm just saying that xG has little pratical use in the terms that one should bet that the metric would regress to a median in the near future.
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Old 11-27-2019, 07:21 AM   #2333
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

What does that even mean? It is a historical stat that shows how well a player has performed at creating chances and values them at a rate that is the average of all shots of that particular tranche taken from that point. It includes some regression elements inherently. So I'm not really understanding why you're trolling this thread other than to throw people off real progress.

Every basic model includes some element of modeling pbp, so I create a shot location, allocate it to a player, and then I need to determine how good said player is at making the shot. This is the same as hockey, basketball, football, etc. Since it replicates what is actually happening in the game. You then use the game state to model the next outcome. (Sub patterns, etc) This is all 101 modeling for sports betting. I have no clue what you're talking about now, but it has nothing to do other than trolling my original question about a stat you barely even understand.
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Old 11-27-2019, 07:59 AM   #2334
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

my point is very clear and this discussion is going nowhere.

carry on, TomG almost positive!

Last edited by PaiDaMorte; 11-27-2019 at 08:11 AM.
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Old 11-27-2019, 08:10 AM   #2335
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Yeah, I think I get it now. You're saying some players are better than others at shooting the ball.

kthx. Wao. What an insightful comment. Poogs-level.
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Old 11-27-2019, 11:49 AM   #2336
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable View Post
Yeah, I think I get it now. You're saying some players are better than others at shooting the ball.

kthx. Wao. What an insightful comment. Poogs-level.
Impressive usage of Cunningham's Law to get the answers you seek. Time and again you manage to get people to engage you, when it is clearly not in their best interest.

Some day, if you fail in your modeling endeavours, and all the steam dries up, we may hire you to run smear campaigns against the books that stiff us. That being said, I think you'd be hard-pressed to top this one
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Old 11-27-2019, 12:18 PM   #2337
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Oh. I already knew the answering. I was posting this for other people. It is a basic application of what has been used in baseball for years to model platoon splits. But now we have pitch f/x and other more granular tools to help understand pitches and how they would theoretically perform so we don't just regress platoon splits back toward league average depending on sample size.

It is a pretty basic thing here as well. Assume most people are pretty much whatever at converting chances unless they prove to be noticeably better or worse. Seems like people aren't really interested in discussing anything and just trying to muddy the waters or debate which quick and dirty method they use (most work pretty well for a while).

Maybe you'd like to contribute something to the discussion we have here!
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Old 11-27-2019, 12:49 PM   #2338
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Spoiler:
Daily: 1-1-0, +0.26u
YTD: 117-118-0, -9.97u, 280.27u risked, -3.6% ROI
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:33 PM   #2339
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

TOR Morgan Rielly o2.5 +115
DET Dylan Larkin o3.5 +130
CGY Rasmus Andersson u1.5 +153
OTT Thomas Chabot o2.5 +113
SJS Evander Kane o3.5 +111
SJS Timo Meier o2.5 -138
WPG Mark Scheifele u2.5 -169
VGK Alex Tuch u2.5 -191

Maybe today is the day we win an E.Kane over?
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Old 11-27-2019, 01:49 PM   #2340
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I was wondering how long you could go without mentioning me thremp. Almost 3 full days! You psychotic coward. Be honest, how many times a day do you think about me? Do you, like your buddy, have 'many pictures' of me too?

btw this 'discussion' is PURE aids. "Super secret", cryptic nonsense (as usual) from PaiDaMooon and thremp's trademark charm. Nothin but aids in here.
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Old 11-27-2019, 02:36 PM   #2341
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Poogs,

Pretty much whenever I'm posting on a subject you're an expert on (welching on bets for example) or when I read your posts. I have seen a photo of you, but don't really care tbh. I think it is funny how you can't be WA props, but consider yourself an expert.

I'm sorry you can't follow this discussion. This is all basic **** so I'm not sure why it is AIDS? Maybe you cover all this in your intro to prop betting reddit?
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Old 11-27-2019, 02:55 PM   #2342
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

lol the thought of you and your disgusting chat room cretins circulating photos of me like a child porn ring
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Old 11-27-2019, 05:07 PM   #2343
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

You've literally watched and posted videos of me to doxx me. Weird flex.

Honestly I think you're a complete piece of ****, and I don't know why anyone I know works with you. I guess you give them access to super soft outs that you're too stupid to exploit. We all have a price.
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Old 11-27-2019, 09:04 PM   #2344
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Anybody have a decent source for archived 2H NFL odds/totals?

I imagine Don Best has it, but IIRC their data is not easily parsed and its not free. Oddsportal goes back to 2008 but their data is terrible.
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Old 11-28-2019, 03:14 AM   #2345
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Free money https://mobile.betonline.ag/sports/s...s/nfl-specials

I feel left out you guys don't share my photo as well
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Old 11-28-2019, 03:55 AM   #2346
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
Cheers
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Old 11-28-2019, 05:30 AM   #2347
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

the thread that keeps on delivering 10/10 all round
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Old 11-28-2019, 10:16 AM   #2348
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable View Post
You've literally watched and posted videos of me to doxx me. Weird flex.

Honestly I think you're a complete piece of ****, and I don't know why anyone I know works with you. I guess you give them access to super soft outs that you're too stupid to exploit. We all have a price.
maybe because they arent horrible human beings like you? I mean you know that youre objectively a ****ty person right? Like what do you think the odds are of a random person meeting you and liking you? 10%?
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Old 11-28-2019, 10:50 AM   #2349
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Spoiler:
Daily: 5-3-0, +1.32u
YTD: 122-121-0, -8.65u, 290.25u risked, -3.0% ROI
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Old 11-28-2019, 11:18 AM   #2350
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

nfl thanksgiving props

https://pastebin.com/3VmFurQH

i got
witten u3 -110
allen rushing yards o36.5 +120
dawson knox o21.5 -110 (if anyone does DFS he seems to be a good tournament play over Jared Cook who I'm assuming will be like 75% owned)
montgomery u55.5 +110 rushing yards
Amendola u3.5 -115 receptions
Marvin Jones u4 -115 receptions
Trubisky u21.5 -115 pass complete

NO/ATL isn't posted

There's a new prop, total QB sacks. See value in under for both posted

fair lines IMO:

CHI/DET u5.5 58.09% (-138)
BUF/DAL u5.5 70.29% (-236)

bets:
Bears/DET u5.5 -115
Buf/DAL u5.5 -170

if anyone needs a thanksgiving meal i'll buy you into the Wynn buffet today, just let me know.
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