Our Props Division bet them and they were winning. From what I saw, all looked good. Edges seemed to be overestimated, but if you think you have a 25% edge, bet your kelly stake for a 2% edge, and you actually have a 7% edge, is anybody complaining?

I made two new connections from reddit, both of whom I had a good relationship with. I can easily have them vouch for me. So, again, if you want to bet on these things you say, we can very easily make that happen. Or you can be the kind of guy who spouts off about everyone and everything but backs down when challenged to a bet...twice

And btw everyone...I dont like this anymore than you do. I dont wanna be going back and forth with this very clearly deranged and obsessive person (who is banned from this entire forum, by the way). But he mentions me in almost every single post, tells lies about me, backs down when challenged to perfectly reasonable bets to prove hes a liar, then does it again.

MTL Jeff Petry o2.5 +140
MTL Joel Armia o2.5 +121

Hey all, been lurking for a while, thought I'd join in.

I saw a few pages back people were down on 2nd half models. I'm going to try one anyways for basketball, anyone care to share frustrations with their past attempts?

not sure what you are trying to insinuate here but ok..

Daily: 1-1-0, +0.40u
YTD: 89-102-0, -22.98u, 224.42u risked, -10.2% ROI

I wasn't implying anything, it just seems like a hassle/pain in the ass. Wasn't commenting on your personal life.

Attempted this for livebetting NCAA totals many years ago, but wasn’t necessarily modeling anything. I did learn some things but probably not enough to beat halftime lines. Pm me if you wanna chat though.

hits,

Good to know that your whole rant of insanity doesn't even address the factual point I made. Keep on gaslighting.

Even if you end up building something unique that works, the speed with which the best stuff gets taken out will crush your spirit. Tbf this is true of almost everything in 2019 but pick a market that doesn't require you to sit around on your ass all/day night hoping for something to happen.

Just look at the rat race that CFB and CBB have become with <$500 openers. It was bad enough at $500, but now racing a bunch of bots to pick off $250 openers?

Think Poogs has the right idea. Make shitty model that can't beat any WA line, bet it into PPH stale lines, proclaim self expert, take money from even dumber people.

atrainpsu, thanks for the offer, but want to just chat about it here? My account is too new for pm's and seems like others are intersted anyways.

Glad to hear others have tried. I don't have the same pessimism though, limits on 2nd half can be large. Also I've been looking at 2nd half live lines and there's a fair bit of disagreement across sites, makes me think there's room to breathe.

Seems like you already have it all figured out, and there is for sure a lot of $ in NFL/NBA 2Hs if you model it better than literally everyone else. Go get it imo.

Allright, I will!

Seriously though, isn't that the goal for every bet? If it wasn't, we wouldn't have anything to bet.

CBJ Boone Jenner u2.5 -165
VAN Bo Horvat u2.5 +100
VAN Brock Boeser u2.5 +132
STL Brayden Schenn u2.5 -148
TBL Brayden Point o2.5 +144
TOR Tyson Barrie o2.5 +144
ARI Phil Kessel u2.5 -107
ARI Clayton Keller u2.5 -148
VGK Shea Theodore o2.5 +149
SJS Evander Kane o3.5 +129
SJS Timo Meier o2.5 +100

Risking 12.68u

If you're looking to beat bad openers 2H is where its at. I've seen crazy moves in < 30 seconds.

Speaking of CBB totals. Does anyone know what the final score of Notre dame game actually was. I had a couple bets graded saying final was 64-59. My friend was watching and said maybe the final shot was waived off but all major media outlets say 64-62.

Daily: 3-8-0, -5.75u
YTD: 92-110-0, -28.73u, 237.1u risked, -12.1% ROI

So hard to win a few meager units. So easy to take a bath and spew treble damage. Is this prop unbeatable?

If youre finding enough disagreement (ie. Book A o/u 74, Book B o/u 75 the model isn’t even the important part. You just need to be able to figure out whether to bet u75 or o74.

...which is what the model is for

Susquehanna quant funds getting into sports betting hired 20 people to work in Ireland according to Bloomberg.

OTT Thomas Chabot o2.5 -102
NJ Nico Hischier u2.5 -202
PIT Evgeni Malkin u2.5 +135

This sounds good buddy. When can we get started with 2H Betting? I agree with all the comments so far in that there is good opportunity due to limits and mispricings, it's going to be frustrating getting lines, and a total time sink. Sounds like it will fit right in here.

I see CG got bought out by William Hill and will transition early next year. That sucks. WH is taking over out here!

Daily: 2-1-0, +1.0u
YTD: 94-111-0, -27.73u, 241.14u risked, -11.5% ROI