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Old 04-09-2019, 12:10 PM   #201
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Josh Harrison NO hit +180 (I can only bet $100 on this, vs other HRR which is 200 so consider 1/2u)

I think lot of people probably bet those things that moved a lot. Also some times it's slow

Austin meadows o1.5 -114 was like that for ~20 minutes after my bet. Now all of a sudden it's -156. Same with Betts/JD didn't move for a while but now they're at 2.5 from 2 whereas Benintendi went to -135 o2 right away and is just stuck there. Moving to 2.5 is more significant.

So maybe they are not respecting our raises and instead getting in with other people. We will earn their respect though hopefully.

They also moved Zimmermann to 4.5 then back to 5. So no idea what that means
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:20 PM   #202
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

early games yes/no hit:

J HARRISON (DET) YES HIT 205
J HARRISON (DET) NO HIT +155

T NAQUIN (CLE) YES HIT -175
T NAQUIN (CLE) NO HIT +140

R DEVERS (BOS) YES HIT -180
R DEVERS (BOS) NO HIT +145

F GALVIS (TOR) YES HIT -175
F GALVIS (TOR) NO HIT +140

T ANDERSON (CWS) YES HIT -205
T ANDERSON (CWS) NO HIT +155

Y DIAZ (TAM) YES HIT -227
Y DIAZ (TAM) NO HIT +177
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:26 PM   #203
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

You guys are crazy pushing up the market I'm going to arb out of Castellanos

Castellanos HRR o2 +127 Betbuilder
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:29 PM   #204
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Rendon > Hoskins +105
Yelich > Trout +100
Springer > Judge -110
Betts > Drury -145

looks like we are in agreement for the most part today, DNRS. teamwork is what makes a syndicate money. looks like you too TomG, time to get this TB ship back on course.
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:37 PM   #205
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting



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Old 04-09-2019, 12:47 PM   #206
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

M.Cabrera HR YES +800

Risking 0.25u
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:50 PM   #207
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Can the prop market really be undervaluing miguel cabrera to hit a home run?
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:51 PM   #208
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

They posted ton of K's

Urena u4 -114
Starburg u7.5 -114 **
Gibson o4.5 -114
Dakota Hudson u5 -114 ****
Jonathan Loaisiga u5 -114
Marco Gonzalez u5.5 -114 **
Max Fried u5.5 -114

Lot of unders, **'s are big ones IMO
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:58 PM   #209
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNonPareil View Post
As I lost all my money on fantasy I signed up for fantasyeliteguru and the main guy name was tommyG. Is that you TomG? He sold me very well on his very big screenshots and foul language. I lost money fast but he made me like myself again. Hoping this syndicate brings life to me too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
G, do you want to tell the story about this muppet in Anaheim, or should I?

As I read each post, I got angrier and angrier I did not see this thread until today.

Glad you are doing better sigs. <3
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:02 PM   #210
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Votto o1.5 -114
Eaton o1.5 -114
Zimmerman u2 -114
Realmuto o1.5 -114
Chapman o2 -114
Piscotty o2 -114
Polanco u1.5 -114
Conforto u2 -114
Ramos u1.5 -114
Pollock u2 -114
Turner u2 -114
DeJong u2 -114
Ozuna u2 -114
Gordon u2 -114
Merrifield o2 -114
Albies u2.5 -114 **
Adam Jones u2 -114
Peralta u2 -114
Wilmer Flores o1.5 -114
Hosmer u1.5 -114
Posey u2 -114 **
Pujols u2 -114 **

So many unders, must have just posted these as I got everything at -114
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:04 PM   #211
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Big day for the syndicate. Lots of pending plays. Let's bring the pain to the bookies today
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:09 PM   #212
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

No that is the old sports betting forum. Now we show respect toward people. DFS TommyG is a great personality. He's been around the industry for a long time and has had some great runs at DFS. He seems to have transitioned well into sports betting and I will say for what it's worth he is quite handsome
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:13 PM   #213
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Got $9,002 tied up in BetBuilder today. Let's go 0 for
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:15 PM   #214
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

It's not worth anything.

Nor was it worth it to deny our friends here of a wonderful story.
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:45 PM   #215
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Lets hear it
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Old 04-09-2019, 02:04 PM   #216
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Believe it or not despite his tough exterior B00T is one of the most loyal, kind-hearted people you will ever meet. Great to have you back, buddy.
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Old 04-09-2019, 02:09 PM   #217
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Can the prop market really be undervaluing miguel cabrera to hit a home run?
This is a great, underrated point and it shows how a professional thinks differently than a recreational player. My numbers say it's a good bet but I am skeptical of it as well. Let's give it a trial run to see if these HR YES bets are something I'm systematically valuing wrong.
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Old 04-09-2019, 02:21 PM   #218
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting









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Old 04-09-2019, 03:01 PM   #219
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

clutch K from Kluber with 96 pitches to end the 6th

I think they moved deGrom too much to 9 and get +114 on under, sign me up. I have Junis at exactly 5.5 K's, so I'll take the +110 for over. Same with Harvey, have 4.5 as fair, so I'll take the under at +110

deGrom u9 +114
Jakob Junis o5.5 +110
Matt Harvey u4.5 +110

We are crushing some of these lines

Marco Gonzalez down to u5 -156, Kirk Gibson o4.5 is now -156, Loaisiga down to u4.5 -167, Hudon down to u4.5 -149. Got most at half a K better and -114

we must have a billion sklansky bucks

I'm looking at this one too, but I'm 0-4 in HRR heads up. What does TomG think

Curtis Granderson +110 over J. Peraza HRR
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Old 04-09-2019, 03:01 PM   #220
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

McCutchen (PHI) HR YES +430
Zimmerman (WAS) HR YES +475
Pederson (LAD) HR YES +475

Risking 0.75u
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Old 04-09-2019, 03:13 PM   #221
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Castro (MIA) HRR o1.5 -114 BB
Soto HRR -110 over Herrera Jazz

Risking 2.24u
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Old 04-09-2019, 03:47 PM   #222
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Soto is +100 over Herrera at 5dimes, I like it too. Let's get this money
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Old 04-09-2019, 04:43 PM   #223
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

This is probably a loser because Mancini is too good but

CHapman HRR -120 over Mancini

Also hope everyone was able to get some Morton and Sale @ good prices to get that 4-0 morning sweep
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Old 04-09-2019, 04:58 PM   #224
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

good bet. i like a lot of A's bats in that game.
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Old 04-09-2019, 05:31 PM   #225
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
This is a great, underrated point and it shows how a professional thinks differently than a recreational player. My numbers say it's a good bet but I am skeptical of it as well. Let's give it a trial run to see if these HR YES bets are something I'm systematically valuing wrong.
This is probably an offensive question as I assume you have this covered already, but is it possible youre regressing his numbers to his career averages too much? His career power numbers are probably still absurd but hes a shell of himself. Again, I know that you know that miggy isnt the same hitter he used to be. But maybe the cliff is even steeper, esp for big power dudes who arent DH's, AND maybe are functioning alcoholics.

YES/NO home run bets are one of the few player prop offerings that I tried and tried to beat but stopped betting them and am in the red for my career (also on that list; NFL o/u for FG's in a game). I tried using some long and complicated formula I stole from fangraphs called xHR or whatever, and just could not make it work.


Tom and others in this thread, are you guys in the red all time in any kind of betting subset? Prop or otherwise? Just curious
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