Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
This is a great, underrated point and it shows how a professional thinks differently than a recreational player. My numbers say it's a good bet but I am skeptical of it as well. Let's give it a trial run to see if these HR YES bets are something I'm systematically valuing wrong.
This is probably an offensive question as I assume you have this covered already, but is it possible youre regressing his numbers to his career averages too much? His career power numbers are probably still absurd but hes a shell of himself. Again, I know that you know that miggy isnt the same hitter he used to be. But maybe the cliff is even steeper, esp for big power dudes who arent DH's, AND maybe are functioning alcoholics.
YES/NO home run bets are one of the few player prop offerings that I tried and tried to beat but stopped betting them and am in the red for my career (also on that list; NFL o/u for FG's in a game). I tried using some long and complicated formula I stole from fangraphs called xHR or whatever, and just could not make it work.
Tom and others in this thread, are you guys in the red all time in any kind of betting subset? Prop or otherwise? Just curious