Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubster
Did Daliman seriously rework teasers as Daliman Teasers? I remember he posted some nonsense on a blackjack board a few years ago talking about how Fezzik was the real deal. This was like 2016 or so.
Relative to you guys I'm new to the sports betting world. I've only had sports betting as my primary income for about four years. I've been a full time gambler since 2008 or so, and before making most of my $ betting sports I made the majority of my money as a casino AP. As far as secrecy goes I'd say it's about on par with sports, with sports edging it out due to the donbest effect.
I'm glad I took the route that I did, though. I know of several incredibly lucrative sports betting opportunities that got wiped out (or corrected, if you'd rather) due to $500 geniuses whacking the pin (or more recently CRIS) opener before it could get copied across the market. This is very similar to casino AP, where if a popular game has a big flaw, you need to manage it carefully. If you whack a game like that in a dinky indian casino for 100k, the game will get pulled and there will be contracts broken and attorneys involved. It will be noticed. If you'd made the same score elsewhere, or piecemeal in various places, you could make millions over time. It's never an easy call, especially when there's money to be made here and now.
These days I probably am too paranoid, I bet in a way that does not touch the screen and I'm sure that costs me money. It was strange and uncomfortable to post even my dumb TBs props in this thread, but in the spirit of the open source syndicate I felt I would be remiss if I didn't. Now that TBs aren't posted on any local outs I've seen and CRIS gets walloped by $250 ballers immediately after posting, I'll have to find something else to bring to the table.
Maybe I'll start posting my esports plays, my ROI on those is pornographic. I can't get any money down on that anymore after PPH introduced and then ten days later removed their esports entirely. All the availability in that area is tied to pinnacle, so I can only get about $300 on exchanges, and since they're all either seeded or laid off onto pin, the effect is the same. Pin limits for the good stuff are around $100.
The one skill I feel very confident in, as far as betting sports goes, is screen reading. I know what every bookie software is labeled on screen, I know who copies who, I know who opens what and when, and I know what "off screen" books manage their lines and have bigger limits than the big boys. So if anyone has any questions in that department, I'll throw my hat in the ring there as an expert.
If the total K's market was totally untouched and you had a local book that simply copied the opener and never moved, you could make a living betting the side that's correlated to the K's prop you like along with the prop, and all you'd have to endure was an occasional slow pay and a slight variance bump. An insight into how I look at things, maybe.
Haven't logged in to 2+2 in quite a while, did a search of my name, and saw this. Will clear some things up.
- I never reworked Wong/Basic Strategy teasers as "Daliman Teasers". I was quite clear in what I was doing, why I was doing it, and where I learned from, and gave credit where it was due multiple times. For ~20 NFL weeks I posted teasers I was betting, adhering mostly to basic strategy except I added a few tweaks, (Would tease up from +3 if it was -120 or higher at times, etc) and I ran hotter than the sun, ultimately not getting paid on a large chunk after going 31-0-5 my last week of posting them. Many people followed my picks and made a lot of $, and I got undue credit for that. While I didn't form or have intense knowledge of the numbers, I was quite familiar with them.
_ As far as Fezzik, he is a friend. I learned a TON about sports betting from Fezzik. He is EXTREMELY knowledgeable about sports betting. He wins a lot of $ betting sports. But most of his edge is in betting rogue/bad lines, not handicapping. He can handicap the NFL quite well, but every other sport he can't, (MAYBE WNBA a bit). Which would all be fine if he weren't a tout who sells picks. But he is, and while I see degrees in the differences between touts, ultimately, if they lose and charge still, they suck, period. I have told him how I feel about him still selling picks, I will no longer defend him as a tout, and was likely wrong to do so in the past.