Maybe I need to refocus more on HRR. I've been reluctant to work on HRR because of total bases but then I think about the times my guy gets walked for 0 TB and that could be a run

I don't know if it would be any use but it would be interesting to see how the numbers change after the 2015 ASB and 2017

I think there's more options with HRR. Usually each game has 3+ and some have even 10 lines to bet and H2H whereas TotalBases only has 0-2 per game.

BetBuilder opened a whole new world where now we can bet 1.5, 2, or 2.5

The question is though how do you take your fantasy projections and convert that to a HRR score? I don't know how all the sites operate, but a couple I've seen just spit out a fantasy number like X draftkings points. For TotalBases you need to consider how to remove walks, RBIs, and runs from that number.

Now you need to consider how to remove doubles and triples. But I think the numbers they give you in their projections are closer to the HRR result than TB.

Or just get on the in-house bandwagon and since I project my own wOBA I need to predict probability of getting hit, double, etc. and can just use that to run even

You might want to focus on K's too. If you look at the opening vs. closing there is a lot of movement.

Also you don't get screwed when Trey Mancini hits a homerun and now you lose everything

i've only started doing K's this year, who opens those? cris?

Where is poogs


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Already waving the white flag on Estrada. I look forward to your next start Marco.


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my HRR model could use some work. it's not the fully developed system that is total bases. but if HRR really has won the arms race that is mlb player props i'll head into the lab and work on it some more.

i think THE BAT projects all individual statistics then we can just add them up. poogs was supposed to subscribe but i made him head shopkeeper so the role of BAT projection analyst is now open to anyone here.

ESTRADA what a pitcher


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Rhys Hoskin homer-ments

Maybe they'll bring estrada out with 96 pitches
He needs a strike out pitch. So many 0-2's that he just gave up homeruns to

Have Chapman 3-3 vs villar 1-3 HR in total bases ... maybe I’ll get 4-4 for the push


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Do we get double paid if Hoskins hits 2 HRs?

Looks like my fade DNRS strategy is all in a heap on the floor

Just need to fade the correct ones. Like anything involving going against Mancini, Alonso, or Arenado.

Or supporting Starling Marte

Here's our TB fair lines tomorrow for TheGreek so we can refresh all morning and hammer them upon open. I'm thinking we can get them on Drury/Betts which is a weird matchup to post.

Freeman +100 Arenado
Ramirez -120 Castellanos
Bellinger -105 Goldschmidt
Anderson +115 Votto
Yelich -130 Trout
Kepler +102 Conforto
Judge +114 Springer
Sanchez +107 Gurriel
Davis -115 Mancini
Machado -144 Belt
Haniger +102 Merrifield
Meadows -111 Abreu
Andrus +114 K.Marte
Drury +176 Betts
Soto +101 Harper

I think Drury/Betts is just because there's no one else on Toronto who is a major league player. I have Drury +168 over Betts and everything else is pretty close within 10 cents. Like Arenado more,

Also sorry for doubting Markakis, I've learned.

Let's keep running good in one subset of props and horrible in the other

Yelich +100 over Trout
Sanchez -110 over Gurriel
Meadows -110 over Abreu

If we didn't add on those H2H we would have actually had a profitable day, but instead now we are struggling with HRR. Maybe it's unbeatable? I have a small positive ROI (1.35%, $18,972 wagered) 87 bets (some I don't post because lines are gone and don't want to post stale lines). K's though, we been crushing. 5 profitable days out of last 6. Overall I have a nice 9.26% ROI ($17,264 wagered) on K's over 81 bets (same with stale lines) . Maybe this is where the money is? Total bases is a disaster (-0.26% ROI on $5,080 bet)

Total Bases:
Gary Sanchez (NYA) -115 over Yuli Gurriel WIN +1
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) -115 over Anthony Rendon WIN +1
Khris Davis (OAK) -120 over T. Mancini LOSS -1.2
Starlin Marte (PIT) -115 over J. Baez LOSS -1.15
Yesterday: 2-2 -0.35
Total: 13-16-4 -3.75u

HRR:
Jose Abreu (CHA) u2 -114 WIN +1
Ji-Man Choi (TBA) u2 -108 WIN +1
Starling Marte (PIT) o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Josh Bell (PIT) u2 -120 WIN +1
Soto (WAS) HRR +120 over O. Herrera LOSS -1
Bryce Harper (PHI) o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Matt David Chapman (OAK) o2 -114 WIN +1
Luke Voit (NYA) u1.5 -114 LOSS -1.14
Justin Turner (LAN) u2 -108 CANCELLED (DNS)
CHapman (OAK) HRR -125 over Mancini LOSS -1.25
Edwin Encarnacion (SEA) u2.5 -120 LOSS -1.2
Corey Seager (LAN) u2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Matt Carpenter (SLN) o2 +127 PUSH
AJ Pollock (LAN) u2 -114 PUSH
Max Muncy (LAN) u2 -108 WIN +1
Stephen Piscotty (OAK) o2 -114 LOSS -1.14
Blackmon (COL) HRR -120 over Markakis LOSS -1.2
Ozzie Albies (ATL) u2.5 -120 WIN +1
Eric Hosmer (SDN) u1.5 -114 WIN +1
Yesterday: 7-9-2 -3.35
Total: 35-35-7 -5.41u

K:
Jon Lester (CHN) u4.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Snell (TBA) u7.5 +130 LOSS -1
Rodon (CHA) o6 +100 WIN +1
Estrada (OAK) o3.5 -114 LOSS -1.14 (we are down so many STARS)
Felix Hernandez (SEA) o4 -108 LOSS -1.08 (got lucky with Lester injury and then unlucky with Felix, how the cookie crumbles I guess)
Verlander K u8 +120 WIN +1.2
Tanaka (NYA) u5.5 -114 WIN +1
Miles Mikolas (SLN) o4 -114 LOSS -1.14
Freeland (COL) u5 -108 WIN +1
E. Lauer (SDN) K o4 -114 WIN +1
Bumgarner (SFN) u5.5 +110 WIN +1.1
Chacin (MIL) o4 +110 LOSS -1
Yesterday: 7-5 +2.04u
Total: 36-32-5 +2.79u

Daily: 7-3-1, +7.44u
YTD: 24-7-4, +20.89u, 45.52u risked, +45.9% ROI

Greek early play

Yelich +100 over Trout

Risking 1u

The early game K's got smoked at opening and most are not good now, these are still good IMO, get while they last. If you can get Morton u8 at a good price (better than -130) or Sale under 9 you would be good. After I put in one bet they moved to -167 for morton and sale moved to u8.5 -149

Zimmerman u5 -114
Kluber o7.5 +110 (only at + odds)

HRR:
Castellanos u2 -114
Benintendi o2 -114
JD Martinez o2 -114
Mookie Betts o2 -114
Ji-Man Choi o1.5 -114
Austin Meadows o1.5 -114 (8,900 star play)
Tommy Pham o2 -114
Jose Abreu u2 -114


I'd watch the Shoemaker line too. I have him predicted at 4.3 K's, right now it's 4.5 with -160 on the under. If it moves to 4 might be worth an over 4 bet

0-3-1 yesterday, at least at this rate we won't have to worry about holding the line and getting accounts zapped by copiers. TB YTD 4-9-2 -6.14

How can you not love betting HR YES props in today's MLB?

Kiermaier HR YES +735
Abreu HR YES +560

I don't want to risk full units on these though (would not be wise bankroll management) and I don't want to deal with the staking for to win 1u so I'll just risk a quarter unit I guess.

Risking 0.5u

Some more great TB

Springer -110 over Judge
Betts -145 over Drury
Ramirez -135 over Castellanos
Votto -125 over B. Anderson

what i find so interesting is how quickly they move some lines and how slowly they move others.

you said that they insta-moved sale and morton but i was still able to get zimmerman and kluber as well as 5 of the 8 hrr plays 15 minutes after you posted them. whiffed choi, meadows and abreu.

over the past 4 or 5 days the vast majority of the bets i've whiffed have won also. tough.