I've been looking at NBA o/u for season w/l records from first glance they seem pretty soft but it's more likely my glance has too much bias... but I've long thought finding the Fenn treasure would be great to give my solo trekking some more meaningful purpose

found dead in the mountains doesn't quite read as well in an obit as treasure hunter found dead in the mountains

i'm fairly convinced though it's all a scam, much like the hidden bitcoin address art, but will search for it nonetheless

lets dive into live betting, tom. I think thats the future

I used to see o/u win totals in every sport that were all over the place and Id hammer them. Almost always regret it though. You tie up money or credit for months and months which is always a bigger problem than youd think it would be. And it leaves a door open to get free rolled. I had accounts that kicked me out and months later hitting me up for losses on futures. Of course if I won Id never hear from them again or have to go through bull**** to get paid. You can also get cut off with good futures pending and now you have to have an argument about why they have to stand. Id sometimes have hedges or half hedges or middles on futures and lose an account with half the bets on it. Only took me like a decade to figure it out but I pretty much never bet futures anymore.

yeah, I'm convinced the sports books business model isn't too far off from banking or insurance, collect the money, reinvest it in safe things, keep profit, return the capital

Tom, the 2+2 betting group that mostly bets on fat men and esports got me more and more thinking about that, jskelts on 2+2 shared this on his lifestyle thread and I'm looking forward to reading it

http://jmcauley.ucsd.edu/cse255/projects/fa15/018.pdf

Nola over Ks printing money again today, 7k in 4 ip so far. 62 and counting last 7 starts, bayou boys love the heat and humidity.

that look cool I will read that too. I used to play a ton of dota but never bet it. Is the hero picking phase considered to be after the games started already? So you would have to live bet it with that approach - could be even tinier limits

interesting, saw a guy on Reddit recently who had his BetOnline account closed for live-betting DotA - they claimed "arbitrage". the outcome of a match can definitely change depending on how the pick-ban phase goes.

i actually wrote a guide for every dota hero in 2006. i loathe the game though and if making money betting on it depended on my watching any of it, i'd just rather not.

every over Ks has been printing money it seems

lol what happened to make u go from writing guides to hating the game.

Hey man, kind of in the process of writing my own model (which is based off the model written in this paper) but playing around with some other features to see if they improve accuracy any.

As someone else mentioned its entirely based around the heroes that are picked, so any bets would have to be placed after the official start of the map - which I assume makes it a live play deal.

autism

Cody's public total ROI: 2%

nice, i twice shared that in fat and blokes group, crickets both times for the free money

Yawn another 10k from Nola, let's get that free money boys.

HOU is -420 tonight, I don't think I've ever seen a baseball line so lopsided before and yet I don't think I can find an argument to lay money on SEA

https://killersports.com/Download/NFL/2019NFLBible.pdf

what do you guys think of this? I'm inclined to ignore anything written as a marketing teaser and basically an advertisement from last year's picks, but something about the 90s homepage interface makes me think they are OG stat guys who are maybe just focused on the numbers and dumbing it down after seeing what Vegas Dave pulls off but don't know how?

it looked legit until I saw this

Road teams that won
more than ten games the previous season are 17-0 ATS when they are off a road game in which they had fewer
than 27 minutes of possession time and rushed the ball at least eight times fewer than their season-to-date
average, as long as they weren’t outgained by 300-plus yards.

Looks like theyre trendzz guys, albeit ultra fancy trendzzz

yeah... but I swear that "I learned to build a website in the 90s and then only focused on data" that's the kind of **** I'm such a sucker for

whenever i'm looking for good analytical stuff, the uglier the website, the more promising it often is

what about the Sports Data Query Language? I am definitely going to be looking into that and quite disapointed I wasn't already well versed in it

i took SEA +360

didn't realize game had started

thanks for keeping the thread alive all. i'm on NYY ML +104

I agree with the website thing. Anything flashy usually sucks. Funny how pinny has always been kind of a **** site too.

that SDQL looks interesting too but Im afraid sort of serious capping has pretty much passed me by. You have to be such a genius with computers and data and as soon as you learn something theres something else that everyone seems to be an expert in. I just stick with my low limit stuff and watch my edge get smaller and smaller every year like the Indian with the tear in his eye

hah

Ok. Let’s get back at it, guys.

NFL (pre) season is upon us. How efficient do we think closing lines are?

My plays yesterday.
Jax+4.5 (closed at +3.5) gets crushed
Tenn +2.5 (+1.5) crushes
Cleve pk (-1.5) crushes
Detroit pk (-2.5) gets crushed
Denver pk (-2.5) kinda gets crushed

Barely better than a dart throw it seems, but we had closing line value?

I did well with wong teasers today and yesterday

yep teasers were terrific this week