This is -2.5 for the year so far

https://pastebin.com/TN7CmNcw

Surprised at the Miami being only 7-28 but +15.64 units until I saw today -2.5 is +925. Rarely win, but when you do you get paid.

I am projecting Ray at over 7ks, I don't think with him it's a question of if he'll get the strikeouts, it's more about whether he gets knocked out of the game before he hits it.

He's 3rd favorite SP on the slate, Biebs is 4th, another guy you guys don't seem to like but I'd also take the u7 for him

thats a lot of overs

their one under got cut off of the screenshot

Bieber u7

i'm big on the Twins today so I hope Snell does what I think Snell usually does and doesn't do that good.

DNRS, are there any guys whose K projections you don't trust because they were former relievers? Lotta huge edges as i posted earlier.

oh yea like ross stripling i'd worry about him. i lowered his projection a lot from before

https://pastebin.com/69EurJKk

couple others got lowered a lot

sparkman moved into the starter role so i feel more confident on him. have him for a reasonable number of innings this time

lol what is that? is that the action network you keep referring to? astonishing

What about Chavez? I got him under 3.5 and am nervous now. edit: ughh pastebin update not looking good for me. come on 33%ish chance, hit.

part of Fantasy Labs. Think it's $15/month? I have a friend who subscribes because of the DFS aspect. Apparently they're really good for basketball and football but other sports not so much.

Price 10.6 projected K's - ok. White sox do average 9.26 K/9 and Price has ~11.4 K/9 so it seems they just took a number in the middle-ish and forgot Price has only gone over 6 innings twice this year (6.1 June 2 and 7 April 14)

I put Chavez up a lot but who knows. Why do teams do this to us. It used to be so rare when teams carried a long man he'd get a spot start once a month. Now everyday we have to deal with this with multiple teams. It's ruining baseball. Can we petition Bud Selig to fix this if he's still the president

original proj: u3.5 - 62.48%
updated proj : u3.5 - 30.97%


lol, glgl

Are the first two numbers Fantasy Labs Model Ks vs Implied Value Ks? If so, some of these are wild.

Thanks. Just took a lil on o3.5 at +118 on another site, so the damage won't be too bad at least. Let's just sweep all the others

edit: ROFL, time to just start a book. Just found a site that has lines on players to make the WSOP Final table. OBV you can only bet YES

Daniel Negreanu


How is this type of robbery even legal?

projected, implied, bet, quality, current line, difference in projection vs implied using just % which is bad

I've never understood why people pay money for that stuff, it's often those only playing a few bucks a slate too who don't even think through the ROI implications of putting 1/3 monthly DFS spend into research websites.

I've met people who only play the quarters but have premium rotogrinders and awesemo subscriptions... it just boggles my mind

this is purely anecdotally, but I've heard a few times that fantasylabs had a dramatic drop off in quality after they were acquired by the action network

Edge bets on Action Network are suspiciously close to Fantasy Labs but slightly different on some. They have 3 of the same top 5 bets like Price and Snell and Sparkman but not the others. All 5 are still overs though, wow.

yea sorry for the chavez, ross etc.

usually what happens with those pitchers is this

0) load the latest starters from mlb.com and hope they haven't changed from yesterday since i already placed a bunch of bets on overnights
1) model tries to determine new IP (compared to overnight) based on projected lineup faced, pitcher history, etc. factors i think are important
2) i post K's without thinking
3) i look at projections and then think hmm chavez 1 inning might not be enough.
4) look on twitter of beat writers for the team, read some articles, etc. to try to determine how long he's going to pitch
5) check pinnacle to see if they have an o/u # of outs props because they might get me in the right area
6) manually update IP based on 4 and 5, click a button to recalculate all the games projections for both teams, and pray

my friend uses FL mostly for news and to compare his model to others. I think he registered once and just never canceled. He said they really help him during basketball so no idea. $60/month seems like a lot. You can get their prop bets for just $15/month, but why bother. Just bet over everything and save yourself $15

All good it happens and it's still more than worth it for me cuz I'm able to get other solid (I think?) bets down.

Yanks up 2-0 thru 2 batters.

Is this what becoming a sharp feels like?

Not to hate too much. I mean yesterday it looks like they had 3 unders and they did win a lot



maybe they caught on to the global warming trend (but i guess then they should be on unders since unders lead to more runs?)

there are also a lot of RSIF today. I'm on 7. What is going on

lol sunday




they may have issues with their model

lol

bieber u7 hits? cole u7.5 might actually win? what is going on, those are our guaranteed losers every time. are we gonna win woodruff u whatever number he is posted at tomorrow next?

is this setting up minnesota to lose in epic fashion even though they're up 4-0 after 3

Relax bud. The Twins are a lock! #homerhanky

what inside info did fantasy labs have about price

Jack Flaherty is the next Michael Wacha

just not good enough

oakland is clutch team

Did anyone just see what happened to the player on the Storm?

Got a steal and had a breakaway all by herself, goes for a layup and breaks her ankle. Never seen that before in my life. Wasn't another player within 20 feet of her

https://twitter.com/mellentuck/statu...320084485?s=12