On the bright side South Point's old software was the absolute worst.

What I like about Stadium is that you can see exactly your max bets on everything and the bets go thru instantly. SP old had smaller limits for the instantly and had to wait for approval for bigger. Hopefully they have good size limits on the new.

Agreed. CG's old software was also terrible. Probably had ~80% of my bets rejected. In fact, whenever one went through it actually made me nervous. Did I misclick and bet the wrong line? Did the line move hard against me between when I submitted it for approval and when it was accepted? New software is great although I don't expect to last long there this fall, at least not with full limits.

Would be nice but not I'm not holding my breath.

Now if we could just get MGM to move to something similar so they can't either a) reject 75% of everything I try to bet or b) counter with $1000.

Yes, CG was total BS before Stadium, You try to bet and they look at the lines and like you say 80% of the time they reject and snap change the line, unless of course you were on the other side of a big move there, then the app would ask you if you want more! lol. Was total BS. And yes if they let a big bet go thru, it was probably best to double up on the other side. lol

[HRE] BAL @ OAK (566120) [21:02] Under 27 @ -120 [Current Total: 8.5 -110/100]

is another good one IMO

This forum has never had much DFS content and my own personal opinion is that interest in DFS is much lower now than it was a few years ago. I know I would find the content interesting from a general advantage gambling and player prop modeling perspective. Feel free to start it up and if it generates enough interest I'm sure one of our mods can retag it as a Well.

That be neat

I got the new app at Southpoint they make you fill out new applications. Previously I had 499 on MLB money lines for game and first half with no authorization.Now it’s 1000 full and 299 1st 5. And only $99 on College World Series.

i don't want to jinx it 45 mins in but we are currently winning all our ML, total, and prop bets

are we gonna reverse it today or are we just being set up

Would love to see it, include graphs. I keep winning my way into the big NFL tournaments and then bubbling.

top level DFS seems worse than sports books

all the "great" players work out deals where they don't play each other and then ban people who are beating from them from joining their games

so they just sit there and wait for someone who wants to take a shot against them which they can do since they ban anyone who can beat them from joining and their backroom deals

Yeah this is a big part of it, really tough to keep that 57% break even win rate if you allow the other top guys to take shots at you. It goes both ways though, I don't need to block the best ones out there, they are too ROI focused like me to sit another reg, it's the newer guys who arrive and try to stake claims that cause the problems who I have to block. But where it really hurts is when you see a juicy $500 h2h and try to play it but then find out you've been blocked - kind of sucks but that guy would probably not be playing otherwise.

But main thing is, you need a healthy edge just to beat the rake, you're not going to find that sitting other regs.

I don't think it's really any different from h2h in poker, there were tons of guys who would just sit out unless it was someone they thought was beatable

I dunno if you guys been following "THE CHART (TM)", but its back



lol @ that 30k in 3 weeks swing in may followed by 30k upswing in 3 weeks

Seattle's "openers" keep giving up runs and can't even get thru the first. Hopefully this is the end of the silly "opener era"

it's great too because I also had HRE under, Milone over 4.5K, and the FG under

as of now looks like would have won all three bets, but all three canceled

at least today is looking good with 9-0 in ML bets, 1-0 in totals, and losing only one HRE. K probably small loss, but all the money lost yesterday is back today

team take no days off because you never know

Do you use Poisson for Ks or is that bad?


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no i dunno if they're bad or not

i just generate thousand of point estimates and use that as the CDF to determine probabilities

i do that for every statistic i generate

if i graph the CDFs they look somewhat like the poisson but not as long tailed. it probably would be a good estimate, but no point if i already have my own cdf's

wow the two that got canceled due to pitching change would have lost

and none of our ML bets in the late games blew up in the later innings. even sfn at +220, +215, and +217

yesterday completely undone

is the curse over

Dare I say, the pastebin strikeouts posting karma is working like a charm

if only it worked for K's. kinda of just small wins or losses

https://pastebin.com/UY9Q5njP

only 2 HRE out there, hopefully some lines will move

tba/nya u28 +120
and phi/was o28 +100

whoops they were slow on posting lines

these 3 i like too

det/pit u27 -110
hou/cin u26 -115
cha/chn u27 -115

BM opened on almost every number we had as close to 50/50. I only got Verlander u8.5 a couple times, Ynoa o3.5, and Skaggs u5.5. Want to get Kikuchi o4.5 but unsure on his pitch count.

I checked BB out of curiosity and so did they

Is K's too efficient now. It's like this almost every day

What are live Ks like in LV - same?

they come up really late now and are usually pretty efficient. Also my limits on those have been lowered to $100, but I think they lowered everyones on the app from talking to someone else.

if you check the lines books like 5D and BetOnline post for K's (not through BB) they're the same lines. I'm assuming they come from a service.

Gone are the beginning of the season days at BM too where they opened -115 on each side. BB did the same thing but haven't been able to bet there so can't check if they're still doing that too.

I noticed BM last couple of weeks has smaller openers on certain pitchers (which tended to be my most profitable subset). Usually those are set at $100 when everyone else is $500.

You say you think they use a service...so theres businesses whose purpose is to come up with lines for props and sell them to books? Thatd be an interesting place to work. Do you know for sure a service like this exists and you assume these books use them? Or are you assuming this kind of service exists in the first place? Im just curious, Ive always wondered where the very first lines come from exactly and how.