You're a dick.

My understanding of this thread is that we pool our knowledge and work together. In fact that's been my experience and understanding with this entire forum and all of its subforums.

Why would you want to cultivate an atmosphere where learning and asking questions is discouraged? He's only got 2 posts here but I'd wager he has a higher chance of contributing something useful if he learns something from his question, compared to you who has given me 0 value this thread.

What's +EV is my sportsbetting contest entries aka Stag Capital

Here's a pro tip taken from Poogs reddit AMA but really it's just a clever application of Cunningham's Law. Don't just waltz in and ask someone to provide something of value such as their fair lines. It's poor etiquette but the real reason not to do so is that it's unlikely to work. The person will feel like they are having to oblige you. Basically it will make that person feel like they are your ***** and thus are unlikely to help. Instead of asking for HRE probabilities and min/max HRE lines, make up some blatantly wrong BS and start posting it as fact. For example say,

People will then jump all over themselves to correct you and you will get some info. This is how to get answers on the internet Poogs solved it years ago.

lol

I try to rank them based on how much pain the loss will cause me

Today was the worst day since July 2, 2017

6 figures and 11 days of profit gone

Tomorrow might as well be June 1 instead of June 17 because now I have nothing to show for June 1-16. (Literally up $2.38 in June now)

People want to do this for a living? Why? Imagine working 12+ hour days for 16 days, betting several million dollars (3,761,908 by my calculation) and having $2.38 to show for it

ROI of 6.11391879e-7

slightly better than a Bank of America savings account.

At least I got tons of comps and a nice salad for dinner.

At least Odd/even cashed 2x today.

4-0 wnba too

Just 1-11 mlb ml hurt a lot

The psychology aspect though. You can find any 16 day period and be like why am I doing this. Why not focus on the month of May where I had my best month ever 60% above previous ?

Gotta get in the right mindset. It's a marathon. 16 days out of 365 is nothing and I bet if I graphed 15 years of betting I'd find worse.

Just gotta keep.on the grind and believe in the system

And Max security got destroyed at the Pegasus today which was nice and that $2.38 doesn't include all the horse racing raoeback I'll get on the first.

Maybe I'll just become a rakeback pro like poker players became

golfers use sports psychologists to take their game to the next level may be an opening for a sports betting psychologist to work with syndicates on the mental aspects of betting. i want to quit all the time too.

The Mental Game of Poker: Proven Strategies For Improving Tilt Control, Confidence, Motivation, Coping with Variance, and More Kindle Edition
by Jared Tendler

Read that years ago, it is great and likely would work for anything with lots of variance.

Mindset is pretty huge and the willingness to learn.

I never told this story to anyone because I was embarrassed, but I feel it relates. I always used to read posts on twoplustwo about so and so scamming everyone and think how could they be so stupid, it is so obvious they were being scammed from the start - until I was that stupid.

In college I was big into fighting video games (particularly Marvel vs Capcom 2, Super Turbo, and Capcom vs SNK 2). Luckily I lived close to two big arcades and my college had an active scene. It was a small scene across the whole US (maybe 100 people? not huge like today) but a couple people from there actual transitioned over the poker (I used to play and considered myself friendly with Hevad Khan, the bulldozer guy from WSOP final table, also Randy Lew the pokerstars guy played MvC2).

I had a car at college, so I would take some of the players over to the arcade on Thursday night for a weekly tournament. When I moved to Vegas I stopping playing, but the top fighting tournament is held every year in Vegas (Evolution). One year I ran into someone I used to play with from college at a casino (he was still into the games) and he told me about DFS.

I wasn't smart like TomG who probably funded his 401k and his children's college funds off of DFS before Draftkings and Fanduel even existed. I thought it was a minor thing with no real liquidity, but this guy apparently was making a killing. And by the time I realized I was missing out on a gold rush, Nevada banned it. He showed me his accounts and it all seemed legit, but he wanted $ to play higher stakes.

I was reeling at the time from the loss of my Pinnacle agent and was looking for a new income source so I said sure. I've always been big on never lending money or borrow money and working independently (this actually was the only time I've worked with someone else and will never do it again), but we hung out almost daily for four years of college what could go wrong?

I funded a DK and FD account with 25k each, we got a condo in New Mexico, he stayed in the condo and would set the lineups. I invented all the models (he was a "feel" guy and just picked players who he felt were due - which was a winnable strat in early DFS) and set it up where he could just log in to our website, get updated lineups, etc. The split was 70 me 30 him after the costs of living in the condo were deducted, etc.

And it went pretty good. First MLB season we semi-crushed, easy 20-30k coming in every month. Crushing NFL and NBA. This was the easy time though. We were setting NBA rosters with people who weren't even playing and still cashing. Second season MLB, crushed and then we hit a road block.

The games got tougher. NBA wasn't brain dead easy anymore. Part of it was my fault because I was too focused on betting NBA spreads and totals I didn't update the lines for DFS. A big issue with NBA is player minutes and it requires a lot of manual adjustments. For MLB this isn't an issue since when the lineups were official the algorithm would just calculate everything. There's no automatic player X is playing Y minutes tonight tho so I need to update them manually. Minutes are huge in DFS because players are predictable. That's why when a backup center is starting and predicting 28 minutes and is 3k everyone is on him. Sure he sucks, but he's getting minutes and thats a major key.

We had a good november, but that was mostly due to NFL and then I remember receiving a call on Christmas eve with my friend crying saying he's broke and we won no money that month and he didn't know how he was going to pay his bills etc (even though food and rent was covered for him). So I worked through Christmas eve and Christmas day re-doing all my databases and websites so when I updated the minutes for my betting it would update DFS minutes, etc. and we went back to NBA profit (Though not as much as the games were getting tougher).

This is where those "Red flags" that I always made fun of people for not noticing started appearing more regularly. He was receiving 15-30k/month consistently, why was he broke? I was able to remote desktop into the laptop we were using for betting to see balances, check status, etc. I did it a lot at first due to trust issues, but after almost 2 years working together I'd just really log in once a month.

I hadn't heard from my "friend" for a couple days so I decided to log in to see what's up and noticed he hadn't been playing any lineups for almost a week. Finally got in touch with him and he said he was sick, etc. That's cool. No one should be expected to work everyday. Eventually back to grind, etc.

Then around April I got a weird call (We usually just talked on chat) where he was accusing me of stealing from him and he's paying more than his fair share of taxes and I'm screwing him, etc. Really unhinged call. I pointed out that we went to an accountant and they set everything up so we'd pay our fair share. He hung up angrily, but never brought it up again.

To add more money since the NBA money was drying up I started added things like UFC (horrible), Golf, and Nascar. Nascar and Golf including the UFC losses added a decent amount and we were back to making 50-60k/month between us.

MLB crushing as usual, and here is where the drama happened. We played GPPs and H2H but we never really cashed a lot in one tournament (no milly makers or like 200k 1st places). Maybe 50k was our highest cash for an entry, but we grinded tons and put in volume.

July 4 DK was having a big Nascar tournament with 250k for first. My Nascar model was heavily correlated, so if one lineup did good they mostly all did good. And we did really good that night. Took down 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 9th and about 17 spots between 10th and 50th. Overall, +311k or so. If I can find it some DFS site actually wrote an article about how unfair it was because we had the max lineups, etc. That old argument, but they directly references on user name which was pretty cool.

And then he disappeared. No responses to anything so I flew to New Mexico and went to the condo and I found out what was going on. Place was in shambles. Piss bottles everywhere and a pile of needles in every corner. Holes in every wall. The reason for the piss bottles? He flushed tons of needles down the toilet and clogged it. I have no idea where he was ****ting.

Dude was a junkie and stole ~500k from our FD/DK account. Luckily we settled weekly so he only had the 311k + 100k we ended up keeping in there + we did good on MLB for the first four days. I noticed he kept logging in to my stats website to get lines though. I traced the IP to somewhere in Oklahoma, but he was gone. It's kinda stupid because lets say we kept that 400k profit. He would have gotten 120k. He was making about 280k/year for literally sitting in front of a computer for an hour or two and joining games and adding lines. He thought of the short term I'm gonna get this money and be rich instead of the long term.

It cost 27k to repair the condo. Hazmat teams had to be brought in to deal with the hundreds of needles everywhere. Entire carpet, new drywall, etc. I have no idea why the neighbors never called the cops.

I should have pursued legal action, but too much of a passive guy.

So how do we get positive out of this?

I was always interested in horse racing, but its a grind. Low ROI and gets tougher each year, etc. I never found it worthwhile. While I was in New Mexico trying to get this condo back together I took a trip to Ruidoso Downs and bet on some horses.

There I saw some guy who was on his computer the whole time (The track didn't let you bet on computers then) betting on some website, so I just asked him about it. He told me all about the rebates you get and how some tracks you get 15% extra ROI, etc. I didn't believe him but I took the site down and did research later and it turns out it was true. I knew track takeouts were insane, but I didn't know rebate programs existed outside of ****ty casino comps.

I spent about a month there in New Mexico trying it out and it changed the whole betting horses for me - I now saw so much value. So much so that now I almost exclusively bet through ADW. I could have been dejected and sat home and cried about being scammed the whole time, but I got out there and found new hustles. This guy looked short term instead of long term and screwed himself out of a good situation. Always focus on long term and don't act based on short term results. Things even out in the long run.

The money I lost from being scammed I've made back multiple times thanks to horse racing rebates (which I would have probably never explored if I didn't get scammed). And we made good DFS money for those 2.5 years, so why be angry?

As for that guy? I had forgotten about him for a couple years, but out of curiosity I googled his name and found a news story about him being murdered in a "random act of violence" leaving behind a wife and a 10 month old child. Was it really random or did he scam someone over again? Guess we will never know.

Wow, brutal. It's definitely a great thing to always try to find a positive for any bad thing that happens. Not easy sometimes.

Before I went to bed I literally went through the same questions except I managed to be up $1,535.39 and only lost 5 figures of profit vs 6 and was on absolute life tilt with no comps or salad to help.

Whenever I am getting crushed I always think of the quote from Blow, “Sometimes you're flush and sometimes you're bust, and when you're up, it's never as good as it seems, and when you're down, you never think you'll be up again, but life goes on.”

Today is a new day so let's get this loot, even if its in fake Sklansky bucks! times/days like this make me go revisit HITS posts about warefare/battle. (Please start that again I very very much enjoyed them, ill even start a go fund me/petition if I have too)

That story reminded me of something I read just a bit ago that changed how I view random variance in life/gambling.

There is a story of a Chinese farmer whose wild stallion ran off one day. All the neighbors gathered around saying “Very bad luck.” The Chinese farmer said, “bad luck, good luck, who knows?” A few days later the stallion returned with a herd of wild horses. The neighbors gathered around saying “Very good luck.” “Bad luck, good luck, who knows,” said the farmer. A week later the farmer’s son was trying to break in one of the horses and was thrown from the horse and broke his leg. The neighbors gathered and said “Very bad luck.” “Bad luck, good luck, who knows,” said the farmer. Several weeks later the Chinese army came to the town looking for able-bodied youth to join the army and fight. When the soldiers came to the farmer’s house and saw the boy’s broken leg, they left him alone and moved on. The neighbors gathered saying “Very good luck.” “Bad luck, good luck, who knows?”

Curious what everyone's take on the 13 o/u for yesterday's Padre's/Rockies game.

Obviously for DFS purposes you jam it in there and it's my understanding in football that high o/u nearly always hits the over - is that also the case in baseball as well?

I don't think I've ever seen an o/u that high before and while we don't want to get too results driven, it sure did live up to the hype.

Dont really bet baseball but from my recollection the 13 o/u has been pretty inline recently with Rockies o/u. They had a HRE a couple days ago of like 40? which I dont think I've seen before. Guessing yest was around there?

Never even played DFS but assuming this would be priced in?

I haven't tracked it but Coors games are usually around 10-11 range. I could be mistaken, but the people I talk DFS with in my slack group were all ****ting themselves over a 13 o/u so it would seem reasonable that it was a bit of an outlier.

Yes, it's priced in, but DFS is never efficiently priced - a big part is late changes, other parts I honestly believe are intentional to drive action. Ultimately, it's not really that big a deal because it's player vs player but there are some very odd situations every slate where some guys are way too cheap and this does tend to incentivize play at times. A lot of "holy **** x pitcher is y amount, I'm going to do 100 lineups today instead of 20" type talk is common in the DFS lands - there will never be any proof of it of course, but I'm sure that's why there are always some soft pricing options each and every slate. I'm talking about the kind that no algorithm could possibly produce and had to been manually manipulated.

thing about coors though is that it can't be too expensive because it still needs to a be a viable play to physically fit on a roster so one can easily play coors without making too many hard decisions elsewhere.

Given all the roster conditions, you can only price players up to a certain amount before they become unplayable so with Coors games - it's never about pricing, it's about ownership and value. You know they'll be really highly owned so it really becomes a choice of "will they be extra good to justify the ownership I'm eating" or are you better off finding players slightly less likely to hit a HR at a fraction of the ownership.

Then there's cash, there's really no excuse to not rely upon Coors games heavily in cash unless there's some seriously under priced players elsewhere - but even then you'll likely have one or two of them. For me, if there is a lefty pitching at Coors, my cash build starts with ace pitching and Arenado/Story then fill out the rest with value - unless there's some seriously underpriced 3B or SS that makes a pivot - but still, vs a lefty, those two are pretty close to automatic.

Against the other top cash game players, there's typically about 2/3 identical builds in cash lines - so it's pretty easy to predict a limited player pool of guys who will be rostered in cash -again, because of the unexplainable soft pricing on certain guys each slate- the ones who really surprise you tend to run out of money by this point in the season - RIP

Ive always assumed really obvious things like that were priced into DFS lineups, but I hear DFS people saying the same kind of stuff. Like theyd all be on whatever PP unit was playing the sabres or whatever other terrible team. Is that really not priced in?

BTW great story sigs. I have a story Ill post here later

Coors players are usually the top projected guys on the slate but they are also the highest priced. You can't really talk about a game in isolation since the decision-making process depends upon the price and projection of alternative players as well and on a full slate there are many of them. All discussion also has to be caveated, cash or GPP, which have wildly different considerations.

FWIW I think DFS is one of the worst forms of advantage gambling for the player: High rake, a lack of information on exactly what you're betting on (your opponents lineups are hidden until after lock), the operator's ability to render a slate unprofitable due to their player pricing, and an inability to calculate EV even after lock particularly for GPPs. In its favor, it's also one of the few peer-to-peer forms of gambling so the potential edge is huge.

Sometimes it's priced sometimes not. The issue is that pricing is set overnight by someone with little motivation to price things accurately since they pay no cost for being wrong. In fact, the operators who set the pricing are often rewarded for mispricings since people tend to see them and think they have an edge and play more. There's also a whole debate on accurate player pricing and whether it's good or bad for the advantage player.

There are essentially two kinds of DFS.

Cash - top 46-50% win back 1.8-2x buyin in contests from h2h to several thousand

GPP - these are usually essentially a winner take all format

most of the casual players are doing the GPP winner take all format. I think the best way to explain it is, if you have NCAA bracket and you know half the people will pick Duke, then even if you pick Duke and they win, you're still unlikely to have gained much. But if you don't pick Duke and they get elminated, they you suddenly have an edge over 50% of the field. That's GPP strategy in a nutshell.

In fact, you often get people wishing someone they liked was priced higher so they'd have lower ownership.

so for this reason, there aren't too many difficult decision in lineup construction when it comes to pricing considerations only

I don't want to get too presumptious, but I am one of the top but anonymous cash game DFS players. You guys seem interested in it, if there is a lot more interest, then I could consider doing a well where I'd also post graphs and such.

K's. Tanaka and Clevinger coming off IL might want to avoid if they have any restrictions on their innings. have tanaka for 5 2/3 - 6 and clevinger for 5 1/3


https://pastebin.com/w6hawpZz


HRE to fade

[HRE] PHI @ WAS (565929) [18:00] Under 28 @ 120 [Current Total: 9.5 -112/102]
[HRE] TBA @ NYA (567493) [18:00] Under 28 @ -115 [Current Total: 9 -110/100]
[HRE] HOU @ CIN (565253) [18:05] Under 26.5 @ -110 [Current Total: 8.5 100/-110]
[HRE] CLE @ TEX (566799) [19:00] Over 28.5 @ 105 [Current Total: 9.5 105/-115]
[HRE] KCA @ SEA (566407) [21:05] Under 27.5 @ -120 [Current Total: 8.5 -110/100]
[HRE] SFN @ LAN (565835) [21:05] Under 27 @ -125 [Current Total: 8.5 -110/100]

South Point sports app switched to Stadium software(CG, and Circa) So you can't use old account until you go in and get a player card and have them switch the account, but now you will get comps. So I guess I am driving out to BFE today.