Funny the guy who's stiffing me is using ace pph too. They also had me on 30sec delay. Book of choice for scumbags I guess.

lol this pph is now trying to cancel the cardinals/mets game because it didn't start at the correct time due to the suspended game going to extra innings

i dunno how you people can deal with these scam artists

never had these problems in vegas or with reputable online books in all my life.

where do you find these guys lol

wat does pph stand for?

I should've pulled the trigger on Giolito at home @ -105

PPH is short for pay-per-head, a service local bookies use to provide lines and accounting. Basically for $8 per week per account, you too can be a bookmaker.

I've heard word tell that there are accounts out there that have 2k limits on K props, and they pay. Word tell...

we killed K's today for 32.26% on 17k bet. Karma activated

Quantrill is good IMO but he's been really bad in the minors the last month. I think the Padres strategy of having him pitch one MLB game, option him to the minor, then recall him 10 days later is messing him up.

I had him only going 5 1/3rd today which might be why the low K's. FantasyLabs had his over as a 10* quality, so guess we got lucky.

In fact we were on the opposite of all their 10 star plays today except Richards under which we had (we had davis, sabathia, snell, ray, quantrill, fried all under they had over).

Better to be lucky than good!!

Can confirm.

see since my thing is based on Ks only i can't do IPs without gunking it all up, i do it by times through order which is more error prone. if i was gonna do a model for Ks/inning i'd have to make models for other things that aren't props! and if i did that, i'd end up betting on stuff that's less than 10% roi. seems awful.

I had a 5k for a bit but couldn't find enough sides/totals guys who actually wanted to bet real money on a side/total to bring enough cover for my obviously toxic props and I couldn't come up with a reasonable enough ratio of sides to props to generate my own cover so it didn't last

Nikita Paris and Hill put it squarely in my ass yest.

I always feel like PPH is the male MLM, bunch of acquaintances from high school are now "bookies". Kind of decent for outs but getting scummed by them makes it feel more personal for some reason.

POsitive Karma June 15

https://pastebin.com/FpCeCB3b

IP's heavily affects K's.

like today I only have Bieber going between 5 2/3 and 6 innings

If I had him going 7 then he'd have ~8.2

Projecting IP is like projecting minutes in NBA. Hard but the most important.

Some things you should consider too:

Seconds or third time through the lineup tends to produce fewer K's so a difference between predicting 6 innings and 7 isn't that much, but 4 and 5 could be an issue.

Home/Away bias in the first inning. This was EXPOSED when Paris offered a prop of 1st inning K's. There's extreme bias in the first inning in K calls for one of these subsets where if they belong to it they will super outperform in the first. I feel like this is exaggerating the effects of the "opener" thing people use. You can definitely see bias in home/away splits for teams who use an "opener" too. It might have to do with the umpire setting their strike zone.

Some pitchers like JA Happ are on a time through the lineup limit instead of innings (though whoever the coach of the Yankees is has been letting him go longer the last couple of outings).

One thing I struggle with and always have is the adjusting for the pitcher in the NL. They're usually an easy strikeout unless the person in front of them gets on. Then they're 100% to sac bunt and most can do that without striking out. So it's like losing a free K. But if there's two people on they might not sac bunt. Or if the person in front of them hit a double, or if there's two outs, etc. Too many things to factor for.

smaller ROI on bigger markets isn't a big deal

easy to bet 100k/day on MLB so ~3% ROI is fine

if HRE ROI was ~3% and can only bet ~6k/day not worth the hassle of trying to find outs, constantly checking lines, etc. might as well get a normal job at that point.

Thats interesting you do IP, risgis. I do batters faced but I can see using innings.

When I was at my peak PPH level I was getting stiffed here and there constantly. If youre getting stiffed it usually means youre right up against the line of taking on accounts that are so good its free money vs the chances of getting paid, which is usually a good thing.

in regards to teams who can chase starting pitchers early, what is predicitive of that? I can only think that good offense leads to getting into the bullpen earlier, but is there anything else? Or any specific part of offense that better leads to it? Does the current health of the SP team's bullpen factor in? Or his last start? Last few starts?? Its all too much

TomG can you sue them for stealing your idea

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...icate-1745329/

Richards u2.5 110
Morton u6.5 -115
Bundy u5 -115
Strasburg u7.5 -123
Pablo Lopez u5 -115
Wacha o4.5 -115
Minor u6 -115
Syndergaard o6.5 -115
Lauer o4 -115
Darvish u6 -115
Buehler u7 -115

yuge on strasburg, pablo, morton (5x worst odds listed)

medium on lauer, syndergaard, bundy, buehler (3x)

ok on the others (2x)

see you guys at the support thread for PPH when they decline these if they ever post them (Got these at BM)

i come up with something, it's a dud. someone else does the same thing and it takes off. story of my life.

how do you have lauer/darvish/buehler when bm hasn't even posted them yet? sometimes i get the strikeout props and team totals confused and misbet but darv/buehler are out of range for that.

are you sure? I see Lauer at 4.5 +139/-175

Buehler 7 -120/-110

Darvish 6 -145/115

I always use the classic interface now as I found they appear faster in there (ignore the number of props they have listed as it's inaccurate in the classic), plus it's easier to see if you're betting TT or Strike out because the header isn't cut off.

i see it now but i swear it wasn't up when i posted. must be because i use the new interface. i do like the way the lines sparkle when they get bet makes me feel like im part of something and others are seeing my sparkles but i guess it's not worth it for stale lines

I've noticed some times there are different lines in classic than the new interface too.
Spreads that are off by 1/2 point or really different ML's

I wonder if they use dual lines for different books

could this be the softest market in mlb?

Yeah the Happ thing I think is becoming more and more of a trend, which is why I went with TTO as a metric. For NL pitchers I just set a lower bound of the average pitcher K rate and that's the lower bound for all batters. I don't think I lose a lot this way but I could be convinced to set it lower to account for the real bums.

As far as 1st inning goes, I was going to add in an umpires factor, but at some point I just didn't bother since it was winning and I had other things to do. All this talk has got me wanting to get it better, there's too much mental "oh this guy's on a pitch limit" or "the pen is drained they'll stretch him out" stuff that I do on my own that can be accounted for in an improved IP/TTO projection.

34.03% Kelly can't argue with that.

I thought it was soft but this happened yesterday



I was on the opposite side of that killer bet too. Didn't know how owned I was back on May 4



those columns are

bet id, date, team away, team home, HRR total bet placed at, over or under, price, amount bet, result, net, edge (against closing line using model), expected win, close HRR total, close HRR over, close HRR under, close FG total, game total HRE

Also did that guy calculate it based on a HRE of 26 (which he has in his spreadsheet) even though the total was 26.5?

might be why the 34.03% kelly

if the total was 26 i'd have over at 47.15% which is slightly better than 45.5% i had for over 26.5 though so still no bet for me

at least i beat the market getting +105 and closing -105? team make up reasons why you were right even though you lost