Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-13-2019, 01:36 PM   #1426
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
5-0 on Yes/No Points
0-1 on Yes/No Goal
2-2-1 on SOG
0-1 on Goalie

It was only five games, but not too happy with SOG model. We did crush the market but who knows how efficient it is. Overall 13.01% ROI, but negative 3.32% on SOG

Really did good on Yes/No Points in terms of winning and crushing market and there are more outs (was able to bet oreilly and perron at 5 different places vs only one for SOG leading to a nice 52.59% ROI overall). I might focus on that instead next season.

Any NHL experts know what the common props are offered during the season? Is Goalie o/u saves basically every game? Yes/No points every game?

Goalie saves I used to see very rarely. The biggest one by far is player vs player matchups with points. NHL SOG is probably my best bet overall but its so hard to find anywhere that posts them online.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 02:05 PM   #1427
zplusz
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 656
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Goalie saves I used to see very rarely. The biggest one by far is player vs player matchups with points. NHL SOG is probably my best bet overall but its so hard to find anywhere that posts them online.
I also saw frequently "Team to score 1st wins game YES/NO" and "3 straight goals by either team YES/NO"

And "Goal in 1st 10min" is always popular. Probably pretty efficient though.
zplusz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 02:24 PM   #1428
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

couple more NBA from BM

Steph Curry more assists than Kyle Lowry +145 (I have fair as +114, 46.68%)

they also have Leonard more Rebounds than Green. I have fair as +110 and line is currently +109, so might want to watch that one

Draymond u8.5 +105 assists looks good too
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 02:46 PM   #1429
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

couple other non rebound or assist bets win% in ()'s

Siakam o1.5 blocks+steals +135 (50.67%)
Gasol o1.5 turnovers +150 (53.71%)
Curry o1.5 blocks+steals +115 (56.62%)
Thompson u1.5 turnovers -115 (59.18%)
Thompson o1.5 blocks+steals +110 (59.39%)
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 02:49 PM   #1430
zplusz
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 656
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
couple more NBA from BM

Steph Curry more assists than Kyle Lowry +145 (I have fair as +114, 46.68%)

they also have Leonard more Rebounds than Green.
Is there a way to see these lines on BM without an account?
zplusz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 03:26 PM   #1431
parisron
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
parisron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 14,544
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Rsig, that you headed into Westgate around noon? I thought I saw the hat you described last week. I was on my way out.
parisron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 03:37 PM   #1432
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

don't think so, was planning on going there later today to play some poker though. The games on Thursday are fun

I think you need to be logged in to see BM Props

I was bored so I was checking out graphs, is HRE due for a correction soon?



this was only 54.52% winners with 9.37% ROI too. Imagine if we could pick at 60%?
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 08:19 PM   #1433
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Cousins u2.5 turnovers -105 (64.96%)
Leonard u9 FT's +100 (55.08%)
Draymond Green u3.5 FT's -115 (70.37%)
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 11:41 PM   #1434
wiper
still catching up
 
wiper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: USA#1
Posts: 42,721
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Untrue. I've been to TT 30+ times and never start at his table since I always join late (unless there's only one table) and he always moves around to mine eventually. I've swapped seats with him several times too.

never saw sigs as a trooper groupie coming Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting
wiper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2019, 11:47 PM   #1435
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i'm at westgate a lot and its really the only time there's a poker game there. good to kill time waiting for 2nd halfs or race tracks to start up. I don't really know him, but he seems like a nice guy. Also the game is fun. I'm a super rec poker player and people talk and have a good time there vs. other places where it's silent and people are watchign ipads. I do'nt mind dropping a couple hundred there.

got killed on NBA Props today even though we went undefeated in blocks+steals
-20.84%

pretty cursed last couple of days in MLB K so good thing we haven't been on it

Got 4 big bets canceled because games were suspended or ended in the 9th even though the pitchers were not in the game. Apparently they changed the grading where in the past if the pitcher was out of the game then they'd grade it anyway

And then Greinke gets pulled because of a delay and usually they cancel because of that, but didn't cancel here.

Is it because I stopped the community aspect of K's? Is this how we are being punished?

Overall good NBA Playoffs tho. ~11% ROI but not the 33% we ran for the first three games. Decent NHL. See you next playoffs.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 04:14 AM   #1436
HRSA
stranger
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 6
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post



Got 4 big bets canceled because games were suspended or ended in the 9th even though the pitchers were not in the game. Apparently they changed the grading where in the past if the pitcher was out of the game then they'd grade it anyway
Atleast BM paid out on Flaherty.

NBA got killed on rebounds

ohwell time to get it back on Ks. Took a couple early lines.

Matz over 5.5 -107
Heaney over 6.5 -110
HRSA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 12:13 PM   #1437
NicholasJ
veteran
 
NicholasJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: ZEF SIDE
Posts: 2,759
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Bellator:

Sonnen +315
Dantas +135


MLB

Phillies (1st5) +121
Rays (1st5) -160
Reds (1st5) -130
Tigers +132
Angels +165
NicholasJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 01:01 PM   #1438
Fubster
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 8,945
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Disconcerting that you're doing bad at Ks sigs. I've been doing well albeit lower volume than what you seem to get. I still am not happy with how I project how long starters stick around but as long as it wins who cares.
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 01:08 PM   #1439
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

not doing bad in terms of losing money

but bad in terms of i should have been winning buckets but only winning whatever is smaller than a bucket because weather doesn't like us

if this keeps up my ROI on K's might drop below 10% and then how can i justify refreshing bookmaker every 10 seconds for an hour every morning

dangerously low at 11.66% now
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 01:13 PM   #1440
Fubster
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 8,945
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Oh right all those cancels. Seems like the book rules are real important, if a game has weather and the bet stands if it goes full (or regardless) you have a little bit of a freeroll going for you. Sort of like the book that had the stipulation they must go 4 innings (RIP those overs)
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 01:22 PM   #1441
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubster View Post
Disconcerting that you're doing bad at Ks sigs. I've been doing well albeit lower volume than what you seem to get. I still am not happy with how I project how long starters stick around but as long as it wins who cares.
Batters faced by the SP is the one aspect I like the least about my lil K model. I basically just guess based off median/avg and the other teams OPS. I cant really think of a better way.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 01:29 PM   #1442
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I messed up and BM has nice rules and it's great, but I tried to branch out by betting at too many books to get more volume since BM was getting too efficient and I was only getting 1-2 bets down before the value was gone.

Some of these new books are lawless and change their rules to suit them. Reminds me why I didn't bother with PPH books or props in the past.

I'm in too deep on props now though. ML betting is boring

Wait for openers, bet

Wake up, bet some more

Lineups released, bet

It's too easy and boring.

But 8am bookmaker hitting refresh my blood is going. Can I get Snell u7.5 -115 before anyone else?

Oh no I max bet Scherzer u8.5 +120 why did it go up to +130, am I wrong? Then watch it rocket down to -117

What is Giolito going to open at today?

Don't really get that ride with money lines, even at open.

It's really only K's (HRR had it too but RIP). NBA/NHL props didn't have this rush. HRE is pretty boring. Oh total is 8.5, bet the under is a play because no one knows how to price HRE with that total for some reason. RSIF, oh a nationally televised game moved a lot to the under before first pitch, guess i'll take the over.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 02:46 PM   #1443
Fubster
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 8,945
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

PPH books actually have pretty common sense rules by and large. Since they generally don't take the action internally, they don't have a strong incentive to make rules that screw players, or make decisions based on a result for them. Of course they have their own litany of obvious other problems, but bad rulings isn't one I run into that much.
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 03:11 PM   #1444
nedprz
grinder
 
nedprz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: cold
Posts: 442
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

My main pph is constantly misgrading props and it's never in my favor. Not convinced it's just runbad. First 5 min of every phone call theyll act like I'm angling them before they finally fix it
nedprz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 03:27 PM   #1445
Fubster
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 8,945
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

What software is that? Could be one where the agent has a ton of control. Believe it or not, CRIS/BM was the one most constantly misgrading props. Usually just had to wait around, sometimes had to contact support, never had any issues though.
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 04:23 PM   #1446
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Placed 06/13/2019 @ 11:56 PM

Risk: $10,000.00 - Win: $12,200.00

Round 2 Matchup - US Open - Byeong Hun An +122 - (Byeong Hun An vrs Branden Grace)

Game Start 06/14/2019 @ 09:50 A

Grace +0 after 18
An -1 after 17

Only way we lose is double bogey or worse

double bogeys 18

i hope posting these K's will reverse all this negative karma

https://pastebin.com/HBprfsxX
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 06:03 PM   #1447
zplusz
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 656
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by nedprz View Post
My main pph is constantly misgrading props and it's never in my favor. Not convinced it's just runbad. First 5 min of every phone call theyll act like I'm angling them before they finally fix it
I can top that. I had an agent just manually deleting half my winning props. I went on after killing it and had negative balance was like wtf? Go to see history and theres like 6 winners missing. Scumbag tried to claim it never happened, luckily I took screenshots of my bets. When I called the site they confirmed the agent had deleted the bets with those ticket #s.

Yet another reason to not deal with these headache pph locals, unless you got one you really know you can trust.
zplusz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 06:19 PM   #1448
Fubster
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 8,945
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Placed 06/13/2019 @ 11:56 PM

Risk: $10,000.00 - Win: $12,200.00

Round 2 Matchup - US Open - Byeong Hun An +122 - (Byeong Hun An vrs Branden Grace)

Game Start 06/14/2019 @ 09:50 A

Grace +0 after 18
An -1 after 17

Only way we lose is double bogey or worse

double bogeys 18

i hope posting these K's will reverse all this negative karma

https://pastebin.com/HBprfsxX
I'm higher on Scherzer and for reasons I can't figure out Heaney is to the moon. A bit higher Mahle and Cole, Way higher on Quantrill, lower on Gonzales, about the same on the rest. I'm trying to retool how I project starter times through order, making this post so I have something to go back and compare to.

Last edited by Fubster; 06-14-2019 at 06:33 PM.
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 06:21 PM   #1449
Fubster
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Fubster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 8,945
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by zplusz View Post
I can top that. I had an agent just manually deleting half my winning props. I went on after killing it and had negative balance was like wtf? Go to see history and theres like 6 winners missing. Scumbag tried to claim it never happened, luckily I took screenshots of my bets. When I called the site they confirmed the agent had deleted the bets with those ticket #s.

Yet another reason to not deal with these headache pph locals, unless you got one you really know you can trust.
I'm currently being possibly stiffed for about 8k so I feel your pain.
Fubster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2019, 07:01 PM   #1450
nedprz
grinder
 
nedprz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: cold
Posts: 442
Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubster View Post
What software is that? Could be one where the agent has a ton of control. Believe it or not, CRIS/BM was the one most constantly misgrading props. Usually just had to wait around, sometimes had to contact support, never had any issues though.
A e 2 3 . I don't do enough poking around to know exactly where they source everything

If you aren't getting stiffed you aren't winning enough lolz
nedprz is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:19 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive