COL/CHN wasn't Even bet IMO, but yes on TEX was a 2u (which cashed!). I only find value on the 10.5 and 10 at +130 if the game isn't expected to be a close one. There used to be value in other numbers but all the books fixed it.

You need to consider how close the game will be too by using the ML or the TT. I use the expected TT (my projections and the market) and if they are close no bet since ties are bad for even (all ties are even and ties late in games tend to lead to one run wins which are always odd). I found some threshold a long time ago, but basically TT should differ by more than 1 run or so.

Lets finish all these playoffs. It's only right.

Proj Rebounds (ignore odds for > 14.5, I didn't realize there was an error in the program until I was looking at assists+rebounds bigger than it. That CSV is fixed but I didn't re-export rebounds)

https://pastebin.com/t1x7zH1e

Proj Assists

https://pastebin.com/t3LXG8MG

Proj Assists+Rebounds

https://pastebin.com/7L4Lpuen

Here's what I am.

Lowry u11.5 Assists+Rebounds -115
Ibaka o5.5 Rebounds -115
Lowry u4.5 Rebounds 100
Curry o11.5 Assists+Rebounds -115
Thompson o6.5 Assists+Rebounds -115
Curry o5.5 Rebounds -115
Green o10 Rebounds -115

Big on Ibaka, Lowry u4.5, Curry o5.5, Lowry u11.5, Thompson o6.5

I noticed I tend to be on over for rebounds a lot which I thought might be a bias, but those projections seem in line with everything else. What's weird to me is most of the time when I'm over on rebounds and aligned with the market on assists, I assume then I'll be over on A+R but i'm usually aligned with the market. Who knows.

back into the mnemonic lab for an EVEN/ODD memorization system

Lets finish NHL too

SOG

https://pastebin.com/DG52WsQ5





Bets

Johansson No Point -130
Coyle No Point -130
Perron Yes Point 130
Tarasenko Yes Goal 210
OReilly Yes Point 100
Krug No Point -125
Parayko u2 -115
Pietrangelo u2.5 -115
Krug u2 115
Johansson o1.5 100

Need Poogs blessing on YES/NO lines

Goalie saves

The line seems to be 27.5 for both

For Rask I have o27.5 at -140 (58.42%)

Binnington I have o27.5 at +105 (48.73%)

I havent done much nhl work lately as Ive unfortunetly run out of places to play them at the moment. I was ca-rushiiing early in the playoffs and lost my SOG book. I still have a couple yes/no score a point but other than betting yes on marchand every night I never find anything.

Im happy for Ryan Orielly finally having his coming out party though. When I was firing away at nhl props a few years ago I remember having money on him almost every single night when he was languishing in the buffalo wasteland. The "advanced stats" at the time loved him and now that ive seen him play a bunch I can kinda see why. He seems to be able to find open space and see plays well before they develop. Ive always been a fan from afar of him.

Come down to Jerry's Nugget in Vegas. I think they just copy lines off of online places.

Only place in Vegas I found consistent NHL props. Just have to risk your life going there.

Today when I was coming out there were 4 people standing around my car looking inside. They claimed they just wanted to see what a Tesla looked like. I'm not so sure but then I showed them the lambo door thing and how to make it dance and they didn't rob me so it turned out ok.

They gave me high fives and said yooooo dog thats crazy.

Prop shopping NHL SOG lines around vegas during the day sounds like such a fun day (not being sarcastic.) I was only out there for a little while but I used to love finding some way off market line on a vegas book and racing to get there. This was right before betting apps became a thing I think. I could never find a great service to monitor casino lines in real time but I also didnt look super hard.

How did you find out this place offers them? Obviously you can just ask but theres so many little shops out there. Man they must be soft as hell. I really wasnt very good at firing props in vegas. I wasn't super comfortable printing out my projections and bringing them with me, I like to be looking at the bet in question and my work at the same time. Damn I wish I could go back in time and take it way more seriously than I did. Ahh... regrets.

I bet horses there occasionally as they have a good reward program. It gets boring sitting at the same casino everyday and if I bet at home using the apps I'll get lazy and do nothing instead, so I try to get some diversity in casinos. Most of my bets are through a third party ADW, but the rebates at some of their tracks are 0%, so makes sense to bet those in Vegas to get those 2-5% comps

Usually cycle between South Point, M Resort, TI, Westgate, Jerrys Nugget, and Wynn for horse racing. During baseball season I try to stay near the strip so I can bet more on MLB if needed. Used to be big on Boyd because it was easy to transfer their points to $$ but their reward program went to **** at the end of last year and I had a big issue with parking downtown.

Golden Nugget has decent rewards too but their tellers are the worst and always have an attitude. Only place I ever stopped tipping on bets.

I thought Jerry's Nugget switched to William Hill a few months ago.

Circa cut me off from comps.

Maybe, I didn't notice. Might be why they have NHL Props now?

That would make more sense since I didn't notice them having props in the past

I thought Jerry's Nugget got out of the sportsbook biz

Edit: beaten to the punch yet again I see

Tarasenko Yes goal +350 @ FD

o6 goals +215 sugarh

Rsig do you use Poisson to calculate rebounds? I feel like it doesn’t do very well for the higher numbers 5+ but decent for less.


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We are going to see an abnormal sum of dingers in July when it is peak summer time. As if we haven't already seen an abnormal sum of dingers...

@DefNotRsigley where did the daily Ks go?

Doh. I was just in jersey an hour ago. Was this one of those $50 max odds boosts?

Good luck, and Happy Game 7 to you all

edit: also got
Lets goooo Pietrangelo injury

no, i use my own CDF based on my projections. Poisson produces similar results but when I do my projections I just estimate thousands of point estimates and use that as the CDF

Disaster incoming. The place I used for Even/Odds posted a total of 10.5 tomorrow with Even as +124 and not +130. Still a good bet (I have fair as +116), but edge basically cut in half if this is not a one time thing. Was up a decent amount in the last couple of weeks (~$4600). Hopefully not the end of Even Odd

When I bet the bonus boost, it was $100 max, but then when I looked at the regular the price was the same and it let me bet more anyway. So wtf knows. Hope I don't get freerolled.

they moved it to +250 last I checked.

st louis has taken one shot in 10 minutes

is this normal

lol Pietrangelo already has 2 SOG and a goal

5-0 on Yes/No Points
0-1 on Yes/No Goal
2-2-1 on SOG
0-1 on Goalie

It was only five games, but not too happy with SOG model. We did crush the market but who knows how efficient it is. Overall 13.01% ROI, but negative 3.32% on SOG

Really did good on Yes/No Points in terms of winning and crushing market and there are more outs (was able to bet oreilly and perron at 5 different places vs only one for SOG leading to a nice 52.59% ROI overall). I might focus on that instead next season.

Any NHL experts know what the common props are offered during the season? Is Goalie o/u saves basically every game? Yes/No points every game?

Thanks rsigs. Followed you today and went +3u. Time to follow your lead and try to build my own model.

BetBuilder out here scamming. They added about 50 new markets

Freddie Freeman to have 3+ Total bases, 4+ Hits + Runs + RBIs and ATL to Win



Will Josh Bell get a hit?



They also have head to head HRR with 44 cent lines. Wonder if ties lose too.

Great parlays too

Julio Teherán to have 7+ strikeouts, Freddie Freeman to have 3+ total bases, Freddie Freeman to have 1+ hits and ATL to Win (how can you get total bases without a hit since walks dont count?)