My Scherzer projection won't down to 9.1 too when lineups were released but by then I was already too much on the over. found a bassitt u5.5 +150 which helped the disaster a little, but -16% roi day on K's

hopefully we can turn it around today even after our inevitable loss on Bieber under whatever number he's posted at

https://pastebin.com/iMPe6bmJ

Not DNRS or TomG's Total K's 6/9/19 v2

https://pastebin.com/Tq0Wg2GA

Player to Score a Goal

Name Team No Goal Yes goal
Bergeron BOS 69.77 30.23
Bozak STL 86.07 13.93
Coyle BOS 89.58 10.42
DeBrusk BOS 69.07 30.93
Johansson BOS 88.69 11.31
Krejci BOS 79.45 20.55
Krug BOS 92.31 7.69
Kuraly BOS 90.48 9.52
Marchand BOS 63.13 36.87
OReilly STL 76.34 23.66
Parayko STL 89.58 10.42
Pastrnak BOS 65.7 34.3
Perron STL 70.47 29.53
Pietrangelo STL 86.94 13.06
Schenn STL 86.94 13.06
Schwartz STL 83.53 16.47
Tarasenko STL 62.5 37.5

Player to Score a Point

Name Team NoPoint YesPoint
Bergeron BOS 41.9 58.1
Bozak STL 69.07 30.93
Coyle BOS 67.71 32.29
DeBrusk BOS 54.88 45.12
Johansson BOS 66.37 33.63
Krejci BOS 61.26 38.74
Krug BOS 58.27 41.73
Kuraly BOS 74.08 25.92
Marchand BOS 31.35 68.65
OReilly STL 41.9 58.1
Parayko STL 67.71 32.29
Pastrnak BOS 33.96 66.04
Perron STL 52.73 47.27
Pietrangelo STL 57.12 42.88
Schenn STL 55.43 44.57
Schwartz STL 55.99 44.01
Tarasenko STL 37.16 62.84
McAvoy TEAM 60.65 39.35

SOG - https://pastebin.com/qrDkXcMt

Haven't found any lines for SOG yet, but here's what I got for others

Schwartz YES Point +180
OReilly YES Point -105
Krug NO Point -115
Perron YES Point +130
Tarasenko YES Goal +190
Marchand YES Goal +190 (I HOPE HIS HAND IS OK)

If Poogs could bless these that would be great. One small losing day and two small winning days so far. Lets go out with a bang. Either sweep or lose them all.

Here's my total haul. I hope this is the last game because the only place I know that offers SOG bets is in a really bad neighborhood and I feel like I'm going to die over a $500 limit bet

PIetrangelo u2.5 -115
DeBrusk u2 -115
Marchand u3 -115
Schenn o2 -115
OReilly u2.5 -115
Krejci u1.5 105
Tarasenko u3.5 -115
Schwartz YESGoal 180
OReilly YES Point -105
Krug No Point -115
Perron Yes Point 140
Marchand YEs Goal 195
Tarasenko Yes Goal 190
OReilly Yes Point -110
Coyle No Point -140
Johansson No Point -140

Is it pretty universal that NHL props are 1st 60 min only?

Can't find clarification at some books. My one book says 1st 60 min for points and goals but not shots on goals

Odd/Even fun?

looks like one just came on the board

ANA/SEA E +130 2u

Wow we did it

Bieber u6.5 5x all at + odds

I think this is the first win on Bieber since mid-April

First rough day with the new system yesterday. Tonight I bounce back. Got Ferguson at -135 though, and it closed at -220. Felt like a big win.

Sky 1h -125
Dream 1Q +145
Pirates first 5 +165
Orioles first 5 +165
Rockies +155
Rangers +170

Action Network supposed 10-star lock props:

O'Reilly u2.5 sog
Parayko u1.5
Krug u 2
Kuraly u2.5

Hendricks u 6.5 Ks -147, proj 5.0

I was worried about today because we had all the pitchers who suck for us

Brault, Miley, Snell, Bieber, Clayton Richard, Bumgarner, Buehler, and Ray

Always on these guys big and rarely win

Looking good so far with Brault free rolling o4 after 2
Miley u5 maybe?
Richard u3 cashed
Bieber u6.5 cashed
Bumgarner and Buehler u6.5 pending
Snell u7.5 maybe? His pitch count is high
Ray o7 cashed already

Classic Bundy will win for us as always

BTW look at how action network ranks their top plays

1) Their method for determining the implied total for the current market price is wrong
2) They look at % how much different their projection is from market which is so bad I can't believe they consider themselves a gambling authority website. These props are not linearly distributed.

I asked someone for their projections for NHL and this is why its bad. Their projections for SOG are actually pretty close to mine, but the difference is how they're using it to analyze props

They list the odds as o1.5 shots +150 as implied total of 2.8 (but then for OReilly o2.5 shots -105 is an implied total of 3 shots. If it isn't obvious why that is wrong not sure what to tell you) o1.5 +150 is more like an implied total of 1.4

and o2.5 -105 is ~2.71 (so that one is sorta accurate)

but then lets look at their projection for Parayko

They project 1.6 shots for Parayko. The Prob of o1.5 should be about 47.5% (assuming SOG ~ Poisson which is close enough). On o1.5 +150 that is an edge of 18.75%

Yet they recommend the under.

This is a huge edge. If they projected the implied total correctly at 1.4 and then had their projection of 1.6 shots I doubt it would be a 10 star play since its only 0.2 shots off of the implied even though the 18.75% edge is huge.

Schwartz YES goal 220 at FD

But Schwartz is only 16.47% to score a goal, according to the table.

oh yea because i'm an idiot and YESGoal is really YES POINT +180 whoops

I had it right in first post but then put it into spreadsheet wrong which got copied into 2nd post

Risk Refund $500.00 $650.00 Cancelled (Baseball: Jose Suarez-Wade LeBlanc) LAA Angels - Seattle Mariners - Odd/Even Total Runs - Even Odds: +130

Mariners are the worst. First Milone, now this. When will they stop?

Hmm I looked at the current lines and Schwartz YES Point is now -115

so either we crushed the line, there was an obvious line error on our bet, or there is an obvious line error now



maybe crushed because I Got OReilly YES -105 at BM And now it's -151

Hockey master poogs watch out.

Well I got +135 on SEA/LAA for a lot more so maybe Hermes will make it up to me. You walk up to the counter and ask for an odd/even bet they think you're the greatest degen ever.

Marchand +215, double checked this one.

Had a nice weekend in Hearthstone +12.8u, 7-3 with picks.

SEA/ANA +130 Even cashes for 2.6u, but unless you bet it after the pitching change then probably canceled so I won't count it towards the record

Should we bet NBA Props now assuming that Durant is out? Or wait for more info

Wanting to pull the trigger but if he's in then all the bets change

Congrats on that eSport money. It seems free but I don't know anything about video games since the original legend of zelda on NES

Marchand YES GOAL +195

easy game guys

Not looking good so far. Hard to win when you predict Bruins won't have many shots and then they take 100 of them.

At least the 10 star Parayko under from FL lost.

ROI:
-3.42

SOG did us in

1-5-1 ouch

6-3 on Yes/No Points/Goals

At least there's a Game 7 to lose more money on.

K's made up yesterdays loss + more even with Fading ACTION NETWORKS 10 star play on Hendricks o6.5 with a u6.5

Eesh. Some sizing fails for me today. -19.5%

Looking forward to doubling down. Should have alot more $$ available for nba tomorrow

Only 2 eSports matches I am interested in this week.

GSL Code S Ro. 4

Classic (-250) vs. Trap (+165)
Dark (-455) vs. Hurricane (+268)

Not seeing any value here at all. Maybe, maybe on Classic as conservatively I'm 70% on him to beat Trap (as is aligulac.com) and my heart says it's probably closer to 80%+ as Trap just doesn't ever beat Classic. He's going military after this, unsure how that affects things.

Hoping for better lines for the finals.